国库集中支付操作风险产生机理的博弈分析

国库集中支付操作风险是指国库资金支付过程中出现违规操作行为的可能性。国库集中支付制度框架下财政资金支付活动是财政部门、预算单位、代理银行和人民银行共同参与的博弈过程。本文运用博弈理论首先分析国库集中支付操作风险产生的内在机理，然后剖析国库集中支付操作风险产生的外在博弈条件，最后从优化博弈条件出发，提出建立健全监督激励机制以防范国库集中支付操作风险的建议。     

Unconventional monetary policies and the corporate bond market

The paper uses a reduced-form vector autoregressive framework to study the effects of quantitative easing and operation “twist”, as well as a conventional monetary expansion, on corporate bond yields and spreads. We construct rating- and maturity-based weekly bond portfolios using TRACE and simulate monetary policies as shocks to the Treasury yield curve. We find that none of the policies can persistently lower corporate spreads, and that operation twist is the only policy capable of lowering corporate yields. This latter finding can be accounted for by the operation twist’s ability to keep the monetary base constant and, therefore, to flatten the riskless yield curve without generating inflationary expectations.     

Macroeconomic Announcements and the Distribution of Price-Endings in the U.S. Treasury Market

We investigate how new information impacts quote clustering in the bond market. We find that clustering, along with quote activity, price volatility and bid-ask spreads, increases sharply in the minutes following releases of macroeconomic news. Each returns to near-normal levels within the hour. Effects are strongest for more liquid on-the-run notes and for the announcements typically associated with substantial information flow. The strong positive comovement of clustering, quote activity, price volatility, and bid-ask spreads supports the conclusion that innovations of these variables are endogenous to the arrival and incorporation of information into prices.     

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage‐Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields

Differences between yields on comparable‐maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so‐called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums (IRP) from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an affine arbitrage‐free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long‐term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and IRP, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.     

New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate that the sharp declines in the 10-year and 5-year break-even inflation rates in 2009 reflect a substantial increase in liquidity risk rather than a decrease in inflation expectations. Break-even inflation rates underestimate inflation expectations over nearly the entire sample due to the liquidity risk premia carried by the inflation indexed bond yields. Also, the model-implied inflation expectations show better forecast performance for the average annual inflation rates than raw break-even inflation rates, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Surveys of Consumers inflation forecasts.     

关于我国国库集中支付制度改革的思考

当前我国财政改革的重点是支出管理改革，而国库集中支付制度是支出管理改革的内容之一，该文首先分析了当前国国库管理体制存在的主要问题和建立国库集中支付制度的必要性，在此基础上提出了建立这一制度的指导,了后提出了关于建立我国国库集中支付制度的一些具体设想。     

居民金融资产结构变化与国债认购空间分析

国债是居民持有的重要金融资产,居民对其金融资产结构的调整会影响国债的发行规模,本文通过国际比较分析总结了居民金融资产结构变化的规律。并考察了我国居民金融资产流量结构的变化趋势和国债在居民金融资产结构中的地位,为此为基础,对“十五”期间政府面向居民可以发生国债的规模进行了预测。     

On the determinants of yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and Treasury securities

Yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and U.S. Treasury securities may reflect differences in taxation, phenomena affecting relative supply and demand, and compensation for default, call, and marketability risks on mortgage instruments. Our research empirically models differences in yields between pass-throughs and comparable-maturity Treasuries. We find that interest-rate volatility and the term structure of rates, factors often cited in the mortgage pricing literature as affecting the mortgage call premium, are the primary determinants of movements in these spreads. Moreover, these effects have grown in importance in recent years as exercise of the prepayment option has increased. We also find evidence that liquidity and credit concerns affect the pricing of pass-through securities.     

Do Interest Rates Follow Unit-Root Processes? Evidence from Cross-Maturity Treasury Bill Yields

Abstract. It is widely reported in the literature that interest rates follow integrated processes. Many empirical studies have, in fact, taken this result as a maintained hypothesis. This article demonstrates that the failure to reject the hypothesis that interest rates contain a unit root may be due to the severe power problem of standard test procedures in small samples. We analyze a panel of cross-maturity Treasury-bill yield series by employing a panel-based test. This test exploits cross-maturity variations of the data to improve estimation efficiency and is more powerful than standard tests for unit roots. The critical values of the test statistics are computed by Monte Carlo simulations tailored to our samples. It is found that the null hypothesis that each yield series contains a unit root can be decisively rejected. Our findings cast some doubt on previous studies that rely on the nonstationarity assumption of interest rates.     

Convergence of Real Capital Market Interest Rates—Evidence from Inflation Indexed Bonds

This paper investigates the convergence of long‐term ex ante real interest rates (RIRs) obtained from Canadian, French, UK, and U.S. inflation indexed government bonds. In contrast to previous research, our evidence suggests full convergence in the long run and, hence, capital market integration. For the same sample period, global convergence is rejected for RIRs measured in conventional terms. From these results, we conclude that previous tests of the long‐run real interest rate parity might have suffered from weak measurement of real capital market interest rates.