Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.     

完善欠发达地区在区域不平衡发展中的促动机制

区域不平衡发展是一个普遍的规律,欠发达地区应根据不平衡发展理论,吸取经验教训,建立科学的不平衡发展促动机制。     

关于浙北地区城乡供水一体化问题的研究——以H县为例

对浙北地区县域范围内城乡供水现状进行了分析，指出：要实现自来水供应一体化，面临着行政管理体制和水务运作体制方面的问题，并对解决这两方面的问题提出了对策。     

浅谈外文藏书建设与图书利用率

文章从广西图书馆外文藏书情况入手，分析了外文图书利用率低下的原因，提出了提高外文图书利用率的对策。     

建设长春国际陆港区的探讨

在国务院《东北振兴规划》和国家海关总署新的报关模式背景下,文章提出了建设长春国际陆港区的设想,并进行了必要性和可行性的分析。在对长春国际陆港区的概念设计的基础上,提出了建设长春国际陆港区的基本依据,进而提出了以长春铁路货运口岸的改造升级和龙嘉国际机场完善功能为核心,建设长春内陆港,再构筑内陆港特色经济区的设想。最后对建设长春国际陆港区存在的问题进行了思考。     

What Prompts the People＇s Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance？ Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.     

供应链管理的履约策略研究

供应链企业间的合作能力、高价值顾客等是影响供应链管理的主要因素。通过对合作企业特点及运行环境、顾客关系资产管理进行比较分析，提出了限制例外、建立退货等履约策略。     

加强学生心理健康教育信息员队伍的建设

心理健康教育是素质教育的重要组成部分,它在促进学生全面发展的过程中发挥着重要的作用。本文从学生心理健康教育信息员队伍的组成、管理、作用三方面作了归纳性的阐述,强调了学生参与心理健康教育的有效性和必要性。     

对小地区失业统计差额比的推定

本文对韩国国内行政区域如市郡区等小地区的失业统计共同差额比进行推定的方法有联合推定量,Woolf推定量和Mantel-Haenszel推定量等。对这个推定量的可信度是通过偏差和平均平方误差的概念来进行比较的。从对京畿地区经济活动人口调查情况看,这个地区内的24个市郡单位行政自治地区的男、女失业率差额比的偏差及平均平方误差是通过本次研究提出的推定程序来推定的。这些推定数的稳定性和效率性可以通过相对偏差和相对平均误差平方根来评价。Woolf推定量或Mantel-Haenszel推定量比联合推定量更为稳定,从其效率性来看三者很相似。