城市化对供水河流水文序列的影响分析

以西安市降水序列为参照,利用累积滤波器和Kendall秩次相关检验法检验了西安市主要供水河流黑河、沣河、灞河年径流序列的趋势性;利用有序聚类分析法推估了城市用水和郊区农业、城镇用水对各序列的显著影响干扰年份。结果表明,城市化对西安市主要河流年径流序列的影响强度由大到小依次是灞河、黑河、沣河;1965年以前,城市河流山口以上年径流序列影响相对较大,1971-1980年时段,城市河流山口以下年径流序列影响较大;突变性分析得出：主要河流山口以上年径流序列干扰年份灞河出现在1948年,入渭河流年径流序列干扰点年份灞河出现在1981年,黑河出现在1979年。黑河、灞河出山年径流序列与入渭河年径流序列突变点移动表明,城市化对河流年径流序列的影响程度山口以上河段小于山口以下至入渭河段。     

“十一五”我国农产品质量安全发展的条件和趋势分析

文章在总结农产品质量安全发展的新形势的基础上,探讨了WTO对我国农产品质量安全的影响及提高我国农产品国际竞争力的途径,同时对“十一五”安全农产品市场发展的前景与趋势进行了系统的分析,为农产品质量安全的发展指明了方向。     

边疆少数民族地区可持续发展能力综合评价

区域可持续发展能力综合评价是当前可持续发展研究中的热点问题。本文采用多元统计分析中的因子分析模型,对边疆少数民族地区五省,即云南、广西、西藏、新疆、内蒙古的可持续发展水平及能力量化处理,基于其2006年的相关指标数据,分别得出五省可持续发展总体实力及其三个子系统（经济、社会、资源环境）的综合得分并据此排序,结合实证分析结果,对三个子系统可持续发展能力的主要构成因素及其相互关系进行了分析,并且针对可持续发展总体能力,在Q型聚类的基础上分析了各类型的特点。旨在为边疆少数民族地区可持续发展战略的实施效果和前景,作一相对准确且具参考价值的分析。     

公众期望与会计信息真实性的关联分析

公众对会计的期望与对会计行为的认识之间存在期望差距,基于不同期望水平对会计信息失真现象所作的分类揭示了会计信息真实性的内涵。通过公众期望与会计信息真实性的关联分析可以发现,加强公众与会计界的沟通理解以及强化会计信息失真的治理,是解决会计信息真实性问题的有效途径。     

Testing measurement invariance using multigroup CFA: differences between educational groups in human values measurement

This article applies the testing procedures for measurement invariance using multigroup confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA). It illustrates these procedures by investigating the factorial structure and invariance of the Portraits Value Questionnaire (PVQ, Schwartz et al.: J. Cross Cult. Psychol. 32(5), 519–542 (2001)) across three education groups in a population sample (N  =  1,677). The PVQ measures 10 basic values that Schwartz postulates to comprehensively describe the human values recognized in all societies (achievement, hedonism, self-direction, benevolence, conformity, security, stimulation, power, tradition and universalism). We also estimate and compare the latent means of the three education groups. The analyses show partial invariance for most of the 10 values and parameters. As expected, the latent means show that less educated respondents attribute more importance to security, tradition, and conformity values.     

经济增长与城乡居民收入——一个实证研究

文章借助VAR模型、协整理论及Granger因果关系检验等分析方法,研究了1985～2004年我国经济增长对居民收入的影响关系。结果表明经济增长与城镇居民收入之间存在显著的长期动态均衡关系,经济增长是城镇居民收入变动的Granger原因;但是经济增长与农村居民收入之间不存在长期均衡关系。经济增长与城乡居民收入的不同关系已发生质的差别。     

How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?

This paper distinguishes a terrorist group’s survivability from its success. Terrorist groups succeed if they join the political process or achieve some of their goals. Based on a sample of 470 terrorist groups, we first estimate the determinants of groups’ ending and, conditional on their demise, we identify factors conducive to their success. We find that religious fundamentalist terrorist groups survive longer than left-wing, nationalist/separatist, or right-wing groups; but religious groups are less apt than other ideologies to attain their objectives or to join the political process. Larger groups survive longer and possess a better success prognosis. Within-country group competition is conducive to survival, but harmful to success. Controls include groups’ goals, groups’ strategic choices, and home country’s characteristics. Robustness tests disaggregate our success measure, provide panel estimates, and incorporate other controls.