Settlement procedures and stock market efficiency

This study examines why most derivatives markets that settle on the day following expiration choose the opening rather than the closing price as the final settlement price (FSP), whereas most markets that settle on the expiration day select an average rather than a single price as the FSP. Four exogenous changes in the Taiwan Futures Exchange settlement procedures provide an experimental basis for studying the settlement procedures’ impact on underlying assets. Greatest market efficiency is observed when the FSP is determined by a single rather than an average price and hypothesize that manipulation is prevented at the expense of market quality.     

基于现有法律框架下建设工程监理安全责任对策

根据现有法律法规,归纳了建设工程监理安全责任的法律规定,对安全责任性质进行分析,指出现有法律法规的协调性、安全监理的深度、安全审查、监理费用等方面存在的问题,并从国家宏观管理和监理单位微观对策方面提出建议。     

先进的循环经济文化模式构建分析

从循环经济与循环经济文化的关系入手，探讨了循环经济文化的不同层次，提出了构建先进循环经济文化模式的路径选择，即培育循环经济文化观，倡导绿色生产观，弘扬绿色消费观。     

论新闻侵权中的精神损害赔偿

新闻侵权是在新闻传播的过程中发生的侵权行为 ,其主体为新闻机构 ,侵害的对象为他人的合法利益。新闻侵权发生后 ,新闻机构应当承担民事责任 ,既包括非财产责任 ,又包括财产责任。如果受害人要求精神损害赔偿的 ,人民法院可根据侵权人的过错程度、侵权行为的具体情节等情况具体酌定。在某些情况下 ,新闻机构可根据宪法规定的言论、出版自由和批评建议权主张免除或减轻其民事责任。     

略论行政不作为违法的国家赔偿问题

实践中，行政不作为违法给公民、法人及其他组织的合法权益造成的损害程度不亚于行政作为违法，我国的《国家赔偿法》在此方面的规定存在不足。本文将从该法有关行政不作为违法的立法缺失入手，肯定国家对此应当承担赔偿责任，浅析此举的意义，最后分析了如何将《国家赔偿法》中行政不作为违法纳入国家赔偿机制。     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

Health Damage of Air Pollution: An Estimate of a Dose–Response Relationship for the Netherlands

This paper estimates the dose-response relationship between air pollution and the number of work loss days for the Netherlands. The study is based on illness data (work loss days) for the Dutch labour population and average year concentrations of air pollution in 29 districts. The dose-response relationship has been estimated by means of two different techniques: the ordinary least squares method (OLS) and the one-way fixed-effects method (OWFEM), which we consider to be more adequate. In general health effects are much smaller when OWFEM is applied than if OLS is used. With OWFEM a significant relationship is found between sulphate aerosol (SO₄), ammonia (NH₃) and the number of work loss days (WLDs). Particulates (TSP), O₃ and SO₂ have no significant effect on the number of WLDs. These results differ from those obtained in studies in the United States, which indicate that particulates (TSP) and other small particles, ozone (O₃) and to a lesser extent SO₄ and SO₂ significantly influence the number of WLDs.     

The damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations

It is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient. What is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals. Although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals, this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion. After briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs, region-specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate. Furthermore, cost functions are assumed to be quadratic, as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions. Results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy modelFUND are presented. Next, uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated. It is shown that because of convex loss functions and right-skewed uncertainties, the risk premium is substantial, calling for more action than analysis based on best-guess estimates. The final section explores some needs for further scientific research.     

基于深度开发的城市文化旅游资源开发利用——以南京为例

对南京城市文化旅游资源开发利用现状进行了系统分析后,认为应从城市整体层面上加以整合和深度开发。随后阐述了在深度开发条件下的南京旅游资源开发思路,在此基础上进行了旅游线路的空间设计与组织,以有效实现南京的旅游开发从单一的专题游向精品化、混合型旅游线路的转变,并提出了相应的实施措施。     

对离婚损害赔偿制度的几点思考

界定了离婚损害赔偿的含义和功能,指出了离婚损害赔偿制度的法律意义、立法理由,就离婚损害赔偿的构成要件、关系主体、赔偿范围提出了自己的观点。