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Mevin Hooten Christopher Wikle Michael Schwob 《Revue internationale de statistique》2020,88(2):441-461
A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g. those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of the measurement error and the underlying dynamic process can complicate the implementation of statistical agent-based models (ABMs) for population demography. In a Bayesian setting, traditional computational algorithms for fitting hierarchical demographic models can be prohibitively cumbersome to construct. Thus, we discuss a variety of approaches for fitting statistical ABMs to data and demonstrate how to use multi-stage recursive Bayesian computing and statistical emulators to fit models in such a way that alleviates the need to have analytical knowledge of the ABM likelihood. Using two examples, a demographic model for survival and a compartment model for COVID-19, we illustrate statistical procedures for implementing ABMs. The approaches we describe are intuitive and accessible for practitioners and can be parallelised easily for additional computational efficiency. 相似文献
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本文讨论了一种以MCS-5l系列单片机为基础的仿真器的设计制作及应用。本仿真器采用广为应用的89C52单片机为核心,可以运行著名的Keil Monitor—51监控程序。通过PC机运行KeilμVision 2集成开发调试环境软件,本仿真器可以进行单片机硬件调试以及C语言(Keil C51)和汇编语言软件的开发与调试。系统设计合理,成本低廉,制作方便,应用广泛。 相似文献
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Alexandre Gohin 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2020,71(2):305-329
This paper deals with the controversial measure of indirect land use changes of the European biodiesel policy. Two studies sponsored by the European Commission find significant, but contrasted, land use impacts for the different vegetable oils used for biodiesel production. The first study uses an aggregate computable general equilibrium model capturing direct, indirect and induced effects. The second more recent study uses a biotechnical partial equilibrium model providing a detailed representation of the indirect effects occurring through the livestock sectors. We develop an original economic emulator to understand the diverging key results of these studies and test their sensitivity. We find that the direct and indirect effects on vegetable oil and land markets explain most of the differences. We also find that indirect effects on the feed markets and the induced effects have less influence on the biodiesel results. We finally argue that the development of emulators as done here can help to understand complex policy assessments. 相似文献
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