Cost comparison of continued anticoagulation with rivaroxaban versus placebo based on the 1-year EINSTEIN-Extension trial efficacy and safety results

Aims: The EINSTEIN-Extension trial (EINSTEIN-EXT) found that continued treatment with rivaroxaban for an additional 6 or 12 months (vs placebo) after 6–12 months of initial anticoagulation significantly reduced the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) with a small non-significant increased risk of major bleeding (none fatal or in critical site). This study aimed to compare total healthcare cost between rivaroxaban and placebo, based on the EINSTEIN-EXT event rates.

Methods: Total healthcare cost was calculated as the sum of treatment and clinical event costs from a US managed care perspective. Treatment duration and event rates were obtained from the EINSTEIN-EXT study. Adjustment on treatment duration was made by assuming a 10% non-adherence rate. Drug costs were based on wholesale acquisition costs. Cost estimates for clinical events (i.e. recurrent deep vein thrombosis [DVT], recurrent pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, clinically relevant non-major bleeding) were determined from the literature. Results were examined over a ±20% range of each cost component and over 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of event rate differences in deterministic (one-way) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA).

Results: Total healthcare cost was $1,454 lower for rivaroxaban-treated (vs placebo-treated) patients in the base-case, with a lower clinical event cost fully offsetting drug cost. The cost savings of recurrent DVT alone (–$3,102) was greater than drug cost ($2,723). Total healthcare cost remained lower for rivaroxaban in the majority (73%) of PSA (cost difference [95% CI]?=?–$1,454 [–$2,396, $1,231]).

Limitations: This study was conducted over the 1-year observation period of the EINSTEIN-EXT trial, which limited “real-world” applicability and examination of long-term economic impact. Assumptions on drug and clinical event costs were US-based and, thus, not applicable to other healthcare systems.

Conclusions: Total healthcare costs were estimated to be lower for patients continuing rivaroxaban therapy compared to those receiving placebo in VTE patients who had completed 6–12 months of VTE treatment.     

Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

基于混合K-中心点的Web客户聚类

通过对Web日志文件进行分析，该文提出了一种改进的K-中心点聚类算法对Wweb用户的行为进行分析的方法。该算法利用模糊相似度，并模仿遗传算法中计算适应度思想，另加了一层循环迭代，每次比较适应度，保留最佳适应度，使之有较好的性能，改进了其易局部最优化的缺点。     

我国经济发展水平与劳动力就业数量关系研究——兼论我国劳动力资源是否过剩

我国劳动力对经济发展而言，其生产率高于资本，因而经济发展对劳动力就业的促进作用逐渐减弱（经济增长的就业弹性逐渐变小）。据测算，我国2013年以前劳动力就业压力很大，2015年以后劳动力又会供不应求。所以，我国未来经济发展中，2014年前后应采用不同的产业结构调整策略来充分满足劳动力就业的要求。     

Lotus Domino/Notes的公开密钥加密机制

公开密钥加密技术在最近几年得到了极大的重视和发展。本文讨论了公钥加密技术的原理和实施技术，并结合公钥技术在Lotus Domino/Notes中的应用，着重探讨了Lotus系统内部用户校验和认证机制的建立和实施。     

Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

The Recognition and Timing of Deferred Tax Liabilities

Abstract:   This paper examines the characteristics of firms that account for deferred tax liabilities related to government investment grants under an extended adoption timing period. Not only the recognition but also the timing decision is associated with changes in future performance and changes in the debt structure. Recognisers outperform non‐recognisers in the future, while early recognition is related to post recognition performance but only for those firms that currently perform well. Changes in the balance sheet structure are also related to both decisions. Firms with recent increases in the debt level tend to postpone recognition, while currently well‐performing firms that increase their future debt level are less likely to recognise deferred taxes.     

Turbo码解码过程中的加权算法

本文通过调整迭代解码过程中系统位接收值的加权系数，提出了一种Turbo码加权迭代解码算法。该算法改变了迭代运算后Turbo码解码器输出软值中系统位接收值信息和它的外部估计信息的比重，使Turbo码无论在低信噪比或是在高信噪比时均具有优良的纠错性能。仿真结果显示，采用Turbo码加权迭代解码算法，不仅能提高Turbo码的收敛速度，而且能进一步降低Turbo码解码时的地板值，使Turbo码的比特误码率在高、低信噪比时都能够得到进一步改善。     

采用改进遗传算法的变压器优化设计

电力机车变压器的优化设计,采用遗传算法是比较好的选择,但传统遗传算法存在一些弊端,文章从编码方式、遗传操作等几个方面探讨了如何对其进行改进,并使用Visual C++编写了一套设计软件,实践证明这种改进是有效的。     

An effective step-down algorithm for the construction and the identification of nonisomorphic orthogonal arrays

In this paper we present an effective algorithm for the construction and the identification of two-level nonisomorphic orthogonal arrays. Using this algorithm, we identify and list a full catalogue of nonisomorphic orthogonal arrays with parameters OA(24,7,2,t), OA(28,6,2,t) and OA(32,6,2,t), t ≥ 2. Some statistical properties of these designs are also considered.