国家规模对贸易投资便利化的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据的实证分析

以"一带一路"53个沿线国家为研究对象测算贸易投资便利化水平，并运用面板数据模型分析国家规模对贸易投资便利化的影响。研究发现：第一，2013年后，"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易投资便利化水平呈上升趋势。第二，在总样本和分时段样本中，国土规模对"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易投资便利化均具有显著的负向影响。第三，在分时段样本中，"一带一路"倡议提出前，居民收入规模是贸易投资便利化的重要影响因素，而倡议的实施使得贸易投资便利化不再受居民收入规模的影响。第四，在分区域样本中，各变量对贸易投资便利化的影响存在较大差异。基于此，本研究从国家规模的角度为"一带一路"沿线国家贸易投资便利化条件的改善以及中国在"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资和双边贸易提出建议。     

Long-term sustainability of third-party facilitated market linkages: Evidence from the USDA marketing assistance program in the Armenian dairy industry

Public–private partnerships are increasingly seen as an important tool to build agri-food supply chains and develop markets for agri-food products in emerging economies. However, many of these initiatives fail when the public component of the program ends. One exception is the USDA Market Assistance Program (MAP) that facilitated the redevelopment of the Armenian dairy sector after privatization. This paper presents a case study of this initiative and hypothesize that the USDA MAP facilitated farmer investment in private enforcement capital. This investment resulted in sustainable market relationships between farmers and dairy processors even after the USDA MAP expired. We find empirical evidence to support this hypothesis using a panel dataset collected from 172 Armenian dairy farmers in 2004 and 2009.     

Taming wicked civic challenges with an innovative crowd

Civic challenges such as urban mobility and energy problems offer new corporate innovation opportunities. However, such challenges are wicked and difficult to tame. They require novel solutions that account for and integrate contradictory perspectives within the local innovation ecosystem of firms, governments, and citizens. This article presents a successful civic innovation crowdsourcing project case study, in which multinational firm Bombardier encouraged a global civic crowd to co-create visionary solutions to the challenge of future mobility in crowded cities around the world. Bombardier recruited a global crowd of 900 individuals and facilitated the citizen development of more than 215 solutions of unique firm value. We explore the process and outcome of this crowdsourcing project and derive actionable design principles for a three-phased civic innovation crowdsourcing process including: (1) crowd construction, (2) crowd knowledge acquisition, and (3) crowd knowledge assimilation. This process enables the crowd to integrate members’ diverse and contradictory knowledge proactively at both the team and individual levels. Additionally, the crowd is able to balance extension of existing local solutions and exploration of path-breaking technologies and solution concepts.     

Did APEC's Trade Facilitation Action Plans deliver the goods?

This paper uses new data to examine whether APEC achieved its aim of reducing trade transaction costs by 10% over the 2002–2010 period. An inversion of the familiar gravity model makes it possible to infer trade costs based on the observed pattern of trade and production across economies. Analysis of trade costs calculated in this way shows that although intra- and extra-APEC trade costs fell during the sample period, they did not do so substantially more quickly than elsewhere in the world. Indeed, the region taken as a whole did not meet the 10% reduction goal. However, a considerable number of individual economies not only met the goal, they greatly exceeded it. Consistent with their outward oriented development strategies and leverage of global and regional value chains, some APEC economies saw very rapid falls in their trade costs over the 2002–2010 period, Viet Nam being a standout performer. Overall, about one third of the forum's membership for which consistent data are available met or exceeded the 10% reduction goal. APEC's two Trade Facilitation Action Plans can therefore be seen as having had mixed records of success.     

Reducing tariff evasion: The role of trade facilitation

Can simplifying customs procedures reduce tariff evasion? We measure tariff evasion as the mis-representation of import values in response to increasing tariffs. In a dataset covering 121 countries and the whole set of HS6 product categories in 2012, 2015, and 2017, we show that simplifying border procedures, that is trade facilitation, reduces tariff evasion. Holding tariff rate constant at its mean, improving a country’s overall trade facilitation performance from the 25th percentile to the median reduces tariff evasion by almost 20%. The moderating effect is especially due to improving the pre-shipment legal certainty of customs procedures. Among the potential mechanisms, improving trade facilitation performance is effective in reducing tariff evasion due to under-reporting of import prices, as well as in countries with weaker control of corruption. The results suggest that countries can gradually implement trade facilitation reforms to cost-effectively minimize tariff evasion.     

东盟贸易便利化对中国制造业产品出口影响的实证分析

本文运用机场基础设施质量、海关程序负担和贸易壁垒普遍度三个指标衡量了贸易便利化程度,并应用国际贸易引力模型实证分析了东盟贸易便利化措施对中国-东盟区域制造业产品出口的影响。实证研究结果表明:东盟机场基础设施质量的改善对中国-东盟区域制造业产品出口有显著的影响。东盟机场基础设施质量等级每提升1%,区域制造业产品出口将增加1.48%。而海关程序负担和贸易壁垒普遍度的改善对中国-东盟区域制造业产品出口的影响不显著。在此基础上,本文设计了两个模拟方案,模拟分析了东盟贸易便利化程度的加深对中国制造业产品出口的影响程度。结果表明:如果东盟每个国家机场基础设施质量都提升到区域平均水平(5.2),则中国制造业产品出口额将提高39.34%。如果东盟每个国家机场基础设施质量等级提升到区域最高水平(6.9),则中国制造业产品对东盟出口额将增长70.95%。     

国际贸易便利化发展进程新特征分析

当前,国际贸易便利化问题并不仅仅为WTO或WCO等传统贸易组织所关注,其迅速发展的进程已在全球的每一个角落全面铺开,并表现出制定主体分散化,规则制定不断的专业化、软法化、巴尔干化、技术化等10项特征。这些新特征中昭示着贸易便利化进程虽然将在保护主义的丛林中艰难行进,但并不会停下它的脚步。     

伙伴国贸易便利化对中国出口的影响——基于跨国实证研究

中国与伙伴国之间的传统关税与非关税壁垒逐渐降到相对较低水平,贸易便利化水平在中国对外贸易发展中愈显重要。运用2009—2019年中国116个贸易伙伴国的跨国面板数据,从硬件基础设施和软性基础设施两个方面,实证分析了伙伴国贸易便利化水平对中国出口的影响。研究发现:在硬件方面,伙伴国交通和通信基础设施对中国出口均有较强促进作用,发展中国家硬件基础设施对中国出口的促进作用强于发达国家。在软性基础设施方面,海关环境对中国出口有正向促进作用,规则环境对中国出口的影响较弱;发展中国家软性基础设施对中国出口的影响也大于发达国家。     

贸易争端背景下特朗普政府农业贸易补贴政策研究

美国长期实行农业补贴政策,其中农作物保险、农业风险补贴和价格损失补贴是补贴的主要形式。特朗普政府上台以后,美国同中国等一些国家发生贸易争端,美国农业出口面临关税报复和贸易壁垒的困境。为保持农业稳定发展,特朗普政府在原有农业补贴形式的基础之上新增了农业贸易援助计划,该计划主要包括市场促进项目、食品采购和分配项目、农业贸易促进项目。这些援助计划在稳定农业生产的同时,也扭曲了市场。美国在2019年度的农业补贴可能会超过其对世贸组织承诺的"黄箱"补贴上限,从而导致违反世贸组织规则。如美国长期执行该政策,我国应采取对美施压措施。