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This paper analyses changes in economic regional interlinkages in Europe over time and investigates the factors that could explain the dynamics of these changes. Our four main findings are the following: (i) we detect a significant surge in regional synchronisation after the Great Recession; (ii) we identify the regions most interrelated with the rest of Europe, namely, Ile de France, Inner London and Lombardia; (iii) we find that sectoral composition explains regional synchronisation in Europe, mainly after the Great Recession and (iv) we document that sectoral composition has important implications for aggregate economic fluctuations, in particular, that similarities in services-related sectors across regions explain a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional business cycle synchronisation. We also propose a new method to measure time-varying synchronisation in small samples that combines regime-switching models and dynamic model averaging. 相似文献
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V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha 《Journal of Mathematical Economics》2003,39(8):863-889
The purpose of this paper is to provide an existence result of equilibria for economies with a measure space of agents, a non-trivial production sector and an infinite dimensional commodity space. The commodity space is modeled by an ordered separable Banach space whose positive cone has a non-empty interior. The discretization approach proposed in this paper, allows us to extend the existence results in Khan and Yannelis [Equilibrium in markets with a continuum of agents and commodities. In: Khan, M.A., Yannelis, N.C. (Eds.), Equilibrium Theory in Infinite Dimensional Spaces. Springer, Berlin, 1991] and Podczeck [Economic Theory 9 (1997) 585] to economies with a non-trivial production sector and with possibly non-ordered but convex preferences as well as partially ordered (possibly incomplete) but non-convex preferences. 相似文献
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Sample design and sample allocation methods are developed for random digit dialling in household telephone surveys. The proposed method is based on a two-way stratification of telephone numbers. A weighted probability proportional to size sample allocation technique is used, with auxiliary variables about the telephone coverage rates, within local telephone exchanges of each substrata. This makes the sampling design nearly “self-weighting” in residential numbers when the prior information is well assigned. A computer program generates random numbers for the local areas within the existing phone capacities. A simulation study has shown greater sample allocation gain by the weighted probabilities proportional to size measures over other sample allocation methods. The amount of dialling required to obtain the sample is less than for proportional allocation. A decrease is also observed on the gain in sample allocation for some methods through the increasing sample sizes. 相似文献
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Kyu Sang Lee 《Experimental Economics》2005,8(2):171
This dissertation aims at elucidating the history of Vernon Smith’s experimental economics by focusing its attention upon the three themes of rationality, minds and machines that assumed significance at different (albeit overlapping) stages of the development of Smith’s experimental economics with the help of his published and unpublished papers.Chapter 1 is devoted to the scrutiny of the form of rationality incorporated into the portions of Smith’s laboratory experiments whose results have usually been taken as corroborations of his “Hayek Hypothesis.” By bringing into the foreground Smith’s definite position on demand theory and its concrete instantiations on many different occasions, we make the case that Smith has consistently imposed by means of the induced value theory certain narrowly defined preference structures that have definite implications for the form of rationality instantiated in the laboratory.The main narrative in Chapter 2 concerns Smith’s intellectual interchanges with behavioral scientists in the early 1960s, more specifically, his reactions to behavioral scientists’ attempts at cognitive modeling. We present several reasons for interpreting Smith’s initiation of the attempt at the maximization-based induced value theory as an endeavor to discipline subjects’ minds. We also provide in Chapter 2 a portrayal of Smith’s missed opportunities to get involved in the large-scale laboratory experimentation projects pursued in the 1950s in close connection with several branches of psychology.Chapter 3 consists of two parts. In Part 1, we describe the origin of mechanism design economics, and offer a detailed explanation of the analytical kinship between Smith’s “microeconomic system theory” and the standard conceptual framework utilized in mechanism design economics. Part 2 is devoted to describing the roles played by the computer in both Smith’s empirical research agenda and the theoretical, mechanism design research pursued by Stanley Reiter (one of Smith’s intellectual companions since the 1950s). Our historical narrative in Chapter 3 is intended to clarify that computer experience and computational theory drove the development of Reiter’ version of mechanism design economics, and that they also (partially) shaped some crucial events in the history of Smith’s version of experimental economics.JEL Classification: B21, B31, C90, C92, D02Prof. Philip E. Mirowski: Advisor 相似文献
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20世纪60年代以来,泰国经济迅速发展,但城市化的进程却相对滞后.由于历史、政策以及政治体制等多方面原因,泰国在城市化过程中出现了城乡发展不协调、城市规模等级体系畸形化、贫民窟等严重的城市问题.泰国城市化过程的经验和教训对如何实现城乡协调和可持续发展具有重要的借鉴意义.对于发展中国家城市化而言,政府更应该重视优化城市层级,赋予城市一定的自治权,尊重农民的地方性知识并努力缩小城乡教育水平的差距. 相似文献
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Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic
《Economic Systems》2015,39(4):553-576
This work develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over a short horizon of six quarters and a long horizon of 12 quarters on a panel of 14 countries, both advanced and developing. First, we build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Second, early warning indicators for the assessment and prediction of systemic risk are selected in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator by a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful indicators. Finally, we observe the performance of the constructed EWS over both horizons on the Czech data and find that the model over the long horizon outperforms the EWS over the short horizon. For both horizons, out-of-sample probability estimates do not deviate substantially from their in-sample estimates, indicating a good out-of-sample performance for the Czech Republic. 相似文献
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This article examines the profitability of dual moving average crossover (DMAC) trading strategies in the Russian stock market over the 2003–12 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis (TA) literature by testing, for the first time, the applicability of ordered weighted moving averages (OWMA) as an alternative calculation basis for determining DMACs. In addition, this article provides the first comprehensive performance comparison of DMAC trading rules in the stock market that is known as one of the most volatile markets in the world. The results show that the best trading strategies of the in-sample period can also outperform their benchmark portfolio during the subsequent out-of-sample period. Moreover, the outperformance of the best DMAC strategies is mostly attributable to their superior performance during bearish periods and, particularly, during stock market crashes. 相似文献
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Forecasting macroeconomic variables in rapidly changing emerging economies presents a number of challenges. In addition to structural changes, the time-series data are usually available only for a short number of periods, and predictors are available in different lengths and frequencies. Dynamic model averaging (DMA), by allowing the forecasting model to change dynamically over time, permits the use of predictors with different lengths and frequencies for the purpose of forecasting in a rapidly changing economy. This study uses DMA to forecast inflation and growth in Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Ghana. We compare its forecasting performance with a wide range of other time-series methods. We find that the size and composition of the optimal predictor set changed, indicating changes in the economic relationships over time. We also find that DMA frequently produces more accurate forecasts than other forecasting methods for both inflation and economic growth in the countries studied. 相似文献