基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。     

Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?

The objective of this paper is to determine the best predictor of equity market crashes by focusing particularly on volatility and market liquidity. In finance, volatility has traditionally been regarded as the best measure of market risk. However, this paper shows that the forecast value of market liquidity, in particular our modified calculated market depth, predicts equity market crashes much more accurately than does the forecast values of EGARCH or Implied Volatility.     

公司业绩与财务杠杆

本文从实证角度分析了我国上市公司的财务杠杆对公司业绩的影响。结果表明,往年财务杠杆和当年财务杠杆对当年公司业绩的影响截然相反。财务杠杆对公司的息税后收益和息税前收益均有影响。长期负债率和长期借款率对公司业绩的影响分别比同年的流动负债率和短期借款率对公司业     

微观经济杠杆值域的聚类分析——以我国能源类上市公司2003年数据为例

本文提出一个研究微观经济杠杆值域的新思路,按照“竞争性工商企业评价指标体系”中所确定的财务指标对2003年我国能源类19家上市公司进行聚类分析,把样本按财务指标值相近程度分为3类,然后对这3类公司的微观经济杠杆值域进行分析解释,得出2003年我国能源类上市公司按“竞争性工商企业评价指标体系”的财务指标分类后的微观经济杠杆值域。     

Do small businesses adjust their capital structure? Evidence from the global financial crisis in Japan

We investigate the extent to which small businesses adjust their capital structures to target levels when their leverage increases substantially during a financial crisis. We examine Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee (ECG) program during the 2008 global financial crisis. The increased leverage from the use of the ECG program during the crisis increased the probability of default. Additionally, small businesses adjusted their leverage ratios to the target range before the crisis. However, such adjustments were weak during and after the crisis, particularly for target firms in the ECG program.     

地价杠杆在城市经营中的调控作用——以南京市为例

本文紧密结合经营城市这个热点问题，首次系统地阐述了地价杠杆在城市经营中的重要作用。并结合南京市1998－1999年的土地出让实际工作成果，运用文中提出的观点，设立不同的口径进行详细分析与对照。通过综合分析与尝试，一方面，说明地价杠杆在政府经营城市的过程中具有不可替代的地位；另一方面，城市政府完全可以运用地价杠杆的经济特性，趋利避害，更好地促进国民经济的健康有序发展。     

The Dynamics of Capital Structure in Transition Economies

This paper uses a dynamic unrestricted capital structure model to examine the determinants of the private companies' target financial leverage and the speed of adjustment to it in two transition economies, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. We explicitly model the adjustment of companies' leverage to a target leverage, and this target leverage is itself explained by a set of factors. The panel data methodology combines cross-section and time-series information. The results indicate that the Bulgarian corporate credit markets were less supply -constrained than those of the Czech Republic during the period under investigation. Bulgariancompanies adjusted much faster to the target leverage than Czech firms. The speed ofadjustment related positively to the distance between target and observed ratio for Bulgarian companies while the relationship was neutral for Czech companies. The conservative policies of Czech banks and the exposure control were likely responsible for the slower adjustment among the larger companies while the opposite were true for Bulgarian banks and companies.     

Risk and Capital Structure in the Regulated Firm

This paper studies the role of capital structure in a regulated firm. We show that it affects the prices set by the regulator, the expected price being lower the higher the proportion of debt finance. However, when debt is increased beyond a certain level, the benefit of lower expected prices is offset by their increased variability. We also study the socially preferred capital structure. This is such that consumers carry some risk, in the form of higher prices in adverse economic conditions.     

我国旅游价格管理：现状、改革背景与政策分析

旅游业发展是一项复杂的系统工程，需要各相关行业和各项政策措施的配套协调。由于旅游价格的杠杆效应，如何应对入世给我国旅游业带来的挑战，改革并完善与国际接轨的旅游价格管理新体制是每一个旅游价格管理工作者应当思考的现实问题。     

经营杠杆与经营杠杆度的论述

本文运用杠杆原理,研究分析了经营中存在的经营杠杆及其杠杆度,推导出经营杠杆度的计算公式,阐明了经营杠杆在P-S图中的位置及其确定方法。得出以下几个结论:①经营杠杆是实际经营中客观存在的;②经营杠杆度DOL与安全边际系数MRS互为倒数关系,两者都对企业的经营状况起警示作用;③经营杠杆度DOL对销售收入S的函数为单调减函数;④企业应力求通过减小DOL来增加息税前利润EBIT。