Change-point detection for expected shortfall in time series

Expected shortfall (ES) is a popular risk measure and plays an important role in risk and portfolio management. Recently, change-point detection of risk measures has been attracting much attention in finance. Based on the self-normalized CUSUM statistic in Fan, Glynn and Pelger (2018) and the Wild Binary Segmentation (WBS) algorithm in Fryzlewicz (2014), this paper proposes a variant WBS procedure to detect and estimate change points of ES in time series. The strengthened Schwarz information criterion is also introduced to determine the number of change points. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of our variant WBS procedure about ES in time series. An empirical application is given to illustrate the usefulness of our procedure.     

论社会主义市场经济的主要特征--从"经济事实"的角度进行理解

经济事实是理解和把握社会主义市场经济主要特征的依据.理解和把握社会主义市场经济的主要特征需考虑的主要经济事实有社会主义的本质、社会主义的基本制度、社会主义的发展阶段.社会主义市场经济的主要特征表现为发展生产力和强国富民;以公有制为主体,多种经济成分共同发展;以按劳分配为主体,多种分配方式并存,把按劳分配与按要素分配结合起来;社会公平与市场效率相结合;以市场为基础,国家宏观调控为主导;与社会主义精神文明建设相结合.     

Another view on optimal design for estimating the point of extremum in quadratic regression

In this paper we illustrate how certain design problems can be simplified by reparametrization of the response function. This alternative viewpoint provides further insights than the more traditional approaches, like minimax, Bayesian or sequential techniques. It will also improve a practitioner’s understanding of more general situations and their “classical” treatment.     

随机存货决策中的安全库存研究

在有短缺成本下 ,讨论了再定购点的确定 ,着重分析了安全库存的一种简易计算。     

建立我国多层次资本市场体系的若干关键问题

我国资本市场发展的目标模式是建立多层次资本市场体系。为了实现这一目标,要进一步规范和发展主板市场,坚持市场化的改革取向,积极稳妥地解决主板市场上的结构性非均衡;在搞好中小企业板的基础上分步骤推进创业板建设;完善股份代办市场,实施功能转型,使之转变为真正的三板市场。     

Designs for estimating an extremal point of quadratic regression models in a hyperball

This paper is devoted to studying optimal designs for estimating an extremal point of a multivariate quadratic regression model in the unit hyperball. The problem of estimating an extremal point is reduced to that of estimating certain parameters of a corresponding nonlinear (in parameters) regression model. For this reduced problem truncated locally D-optimal designs are found in an explicit form. The result is a generalization of the results of Fedorov and Müller (1997) for onedimensional quadratic regression function in the unit segment. Received February 2002     

广西北部湾经济区发展战略探析

分析了广西北部湾经济区的发展现状,创造性地提出其发展要因,最后,基于发展要因提出经济区发展战略,以供决策参考。     

论检验直接成本和间接成本的平衡及平衡点的经济意义

分析了工业企业外购物品检验成本的两个组成部分:检验过程直接投入的要素成本和检验结果失准诱发的问接成本,并分析论证了二者的习性、平衡条件以及平衡点的计算方法及应用。     

VMI模式下最优订货点的仿真研究

通过VMI模式下订货流程的模拟,根据客户订货前置期的历史统计数据或分布函数,利用Arena软件求解配送中心最优订货点。研究表明,仿真分析能获得比常规数学方法更科学合理的最优订货点。     

新农村建设需要重点解决好的几个问题

建设社会主义新农村既是我国在新时期作出的一项伟大的战略部署,又是我国在加快推进社会主义经济建设和社会和谐发展中所面临的一项艰巨的历史任务.加快社会主义新农村建设,必须选准切入点,抓住关节点,稳步推进,力求实效.