人民币升值对我国银行业影响的实证分析

随着我国外汇业务的逐渐成熟,人民币升值的呼声愈来愈高,汇率的频繁波动已是无法避免。通过实证分析来具体量化汇率变动对商业银行所造成的正负面影响,进而分析人民币升值对我国银行业稳定性的影响程度。     

Customer segmentation using unobserved heterogeneity in the perceived-value–loyalty–intentions link

Multiple facets of perceived value perceptions drive loyalty intentions. However, this value–loyalty link is not uniform for all customers. In fact, the present study identifies three different segments that are internally consistent and stable across different service industries, using two data sets: the wireless telecommunication industry (sample size 1122) and the financial services industry (sample size 982). Comparing the results of a single-class solution with finite mixture results confirms the existence of unobserved customer segments. The three established segments are “rationalists”, “functionalists” and “value maximizers”. These results point the way for value-based segmentation in loyalty initiatives and reflect the importance of a multidimensional conceptualization of perceived value, comprising cognitive and affective components. The present results substantiate the fact that assuming a homogeneous value–loyalty link provides a misleading view of the market. The paper derives implications for marketing research and practice in terms of segmentation, positioning, loyalty programs and strategic alliances.     

An investment-function-based measure of capacity utilisation.: Potential output and utilised capacity in the Bank of Italy's quarterly model

Measures of potential output and the output gap are increasingly being developed and used to concisely quantify and monitor the risk of price accelerations stemming from rises in aggregate demand that are not met by a corresponding increase in supply. They often play a prominent role in the price determination mechanisms of macroeconometric models. In this paper we build a measure of potential private-sector value added for the Italian economy that is consistent with the capital accumulation process in the Banca d'Italia's Quarterly Model — and more generally with the rest of the supply-side block of that model. More specifically, we exploit the fact that the investment function can be thought of as a relationship transforming desired gross additions to capacity output into capital accumulation by means of a conversion factor (the optimal capital/output ratio). Thus, if one removes the component of investment decisions that stems from changes in the relative price of the production factors, (i.e. in the optimal capital/output ratio), then a measure of the desired gross addition to capacity may be constructed. The results draw a cyclical picture of the degree of capacity utilisation for the period 1970–1997 that is roughly in line with those produced by the Wharton and Hodrick–Prescott filter approaches, as well as with the pictures resulting from the ISAE, IMF, European Commission and OECD measures of the output gap. Our investment-function-based measure appears to be a promising indicator of the pressure exerted on prices by demand accelerations. Its empirical properties are, on the whole, acceptable and plausible.     

氦-空混合气体下热辅助磁存储头盘界面润滑剂迁移机理

为了提升硬盘读取数据的效果,进一步增加硬盘的存储量,对头盘界面空间散热的影响因素及其影响规律,以及氦-空混合气体环境下润滑剂的迁移规律进行研究,建立了磁头磁盘界面空间气浮轴承模型和热辅助下磁头磁盘界面空间润滑剂迁移的分子动力学模型,并以此为基础将气浮轴承模拟结果输入到模型中,探析氦气质量分数及其他影响参数对头盘界面空间散热的影响规律,以及激光热流及其他影响参数对氦-空混合气体环境下润滑剂迁移的规律。结果表明：氦气质量分数加剧了头盘界面空间的散热强度;与磁头飞行高度相比,润滑剂厚度、环境压强的增大更利于磁头磁盘界面空间的散热;润滑剂转移量随激光热流、磁盘速度的增大而增大;随着脉冲光斑尺寸的增加,润滑剂转移量先增加后减小,且光斑半径为20σ时润滑剂转移量达到最大值;Zdol2000,Zdol4000,Ztetraol2000及ZTMD等4种润滑剂中,Zdol4000造成的润滑剂转移量最大。研究获得的头盘界面空间散热因素及热辅助下影响润滑剂转移量影响因素的结果,能够为充氦热辅助硬盘的设计提供理论依据,也可为下一代磁存储记录技术的发展提供技术支持。     

访华日本国际客源市场之细分研究

日本作为国际客源市场形成于其高速发展的经济成长期,在中国改革开放后,这一市场对中国国际客源市场的发展产生着极为重要的影响.然而,依其市场规模和显在的经济实力,实际访华的日本客源市场规模远未达到预期,这对中国在今后争取更大的日本客源市场乃至亚洲客源市场来说,是一个值得探讨的课题.本文想透过该问题的研究,全面分析访华日本国际客源市场的状况,并据此为中国在争取日本国际客源市场方面提供一个科学的参考依据.     

沥青混合料高温稳定性的灰色关联分析

灰色关联分析是一种系统分析方法。运用灰色关联分析可以分辨出各个影响因素与系统的发展态势之间的紧密关系,从中找出对系统起到推动性作用的主要因素,哪些会是对系统的发展起到很小影响力的次要因素。本文运用灰色关联熵分析法对沥青混合料的高温性能进行分析。     

基金费率与基金管理者能力正相关研究——基于基金投资者类型的分析

伴随着我国基金行业的爆炸式增长,2010年末市场上已经有超过六十家基金管理公司,但基金行业的管理费却是投资者收益的六倍之多,成为了基金行业的一种异常现象.本文将基金投资者并非是完全理性纳入模型,把投资者分为成熟和幼稚两种类型,对基金管理者能力与基金费率之间的关系进行了探讨.结论表明,当幼稚型投资者比重超过一定程度后,基金管理者能力与基金费率成反比.而且,随着幼稚型投资者比重的增大,基金管理者获取的投资收益比例越大,基金投资者获得的收益比例越低.2010年我国基金行业管理者的收益是基金投资者收益的六倍,反映了我国基金市场上幼稚型投资者比例很高.     

考虑应力作用影响的黄泛区粉土土水特征曲线分析与预测

为了研究应力作用对土水特征曲线的影响,采用应力关联土水特征仪测定不同应力下粉土的脱湿-吸湿曲线,讨论应力变化对粉土土水特征的影响规律,并利用应力与孔隙比的关系提出考虑应力作用的粉土土水特征曲线预测方法。研究发现：试样在应力逐渐增加时不易脱水,但更易吸水,非饱和粉土的持水能力随着正应力的增大而增强;脱湿曲线与吸湿曲线并不重合,有明显的回滞现象,并且吸湿曲线饱和度的变化比脱湿曲线更加剧烈;随着正应力的增大,滞回圈面积减小,滞回特性减弱。此外,将预测曲线与测得的试验曲线对比,可知提出的考虑应力的土水特征曲线预测方法具有较好的预测精度。     

一种用在建筑胶水的变性淀粉制备方法

采用半干法工艺反应引入两种阴离子基团制备羧甲基淀粉,考察氧化剂、氧化反应温度、醚化剂、醚化反应时间、催化剂等因素对反应的影响。结果表明：采用半干法制备较佳的反应工艺为：醚化剂用量2A～4A,氧化剂用量0.6～1.0%,反应时间3h,温度为30℃,催化剂A＋B,交联剂0.2%,增塑剂0.3%。所制备的双阴离子羧甲基淀粉具有较高的取代度,冷水可溶,增稠好,粘结力高等特性,在建材领域上具有广泛的应用。