Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan

This paper examines the effects of government deficits, public investment, and public capital on welfare in the transition to an aging Japan by applying a simulated general equilibrium growth model. One of the main results of this paper is that targeting only high economic growth would mislead us as to economic policies, and that a policy to reduce future government deficits is most preferable for almost all generations, even though a cut in future deficits must be followed by a decrease in public investment, thus a decrease in public capital in the future. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 462–491. Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan; and Management School, Imperial College, United Kingdom. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, H54, H62, C68, J10.     

Overlapping Generations or Infinitely-Lived Agents: Intergenerational Altruism and the Economics of Global Warming

Do we need an overlapping generations model for the economics of global warming? To answer this question, an infinitely-lived agent (ILA) approach and an overlapping generations (OLG) model are contrasted. ILA and OLG can be viewed as polar representations of intergenerational altruism. With ILA an immortal agent acts through his investment/savings decisions as trustee on the behalf of the future generations. With OLG, agents need not behave altruistic. They simply save during working years and dissave completely during retirement. Nevertheless, ILA and OLG must not differ in their implication for greenhouse policy. Greenhouse gas abatement is a straightforward alternative to physical capital formation and, even without altruism, each age cohort has an incentive to provide current abatement in order to reduce future damages attributable to climate change. Indeed, under reasonable assumptions and parameter values, our simulations reveal such an invariance result. Provided carbon taxes are the only policy tool and tax revenues are recycled through socially mandated rules, projections of economic growth, climate change and energy consumption are only insignificantly affected by the choice of approach.     

基于人工神经网络的企业生产预警管理系统研究

企业生产预警管理是生产企业现代管理的一种新模式,它通过监测指标,对企业外部环境变化和生产管理活动进行综合评价,判断企业生产管理所处状态,并采取相应的预先控制对策,使企业生产管理活动始终处于“安全、有效”的管理模式。人工神经网络是广泛应用于众多学科的非线性模拟技术,文章将人工神经网络技术应用到企业生产预警管理中,根据影响生产管理的指标和分类标准随机生成有效的样本数据以建立人工神经网络模型。结果表明样本生成方法和应用人工神经网络技术进行企业生产预警管理评估的方法是合理并可行的。     

浅谈房地产公司战略采购材料部品送认封管理

通过材料部品样品送样、认样、封样的全过程管理,实现材料部品的收集、分类、整理、入库、出库的过程跟踪控制,明确职责划分实施全过程可追溯的有效资源管理模式。     

Overlapping Generations and Environmental Policy： An Introduction

A small but growing body of literature uses overlapping generations （OLG） models to study environmental policy for long-lived problems such as climate change. An OLG model, unlike the infinitely lived representative agent model, dis- tinguishes between impatience with respect to one＇s own future utility, and attitudes toward successors＇ utility. I discuss the problem of time inconsistency, the role of Markov perfection, and show that a class of OLG models can be studied using me- thods developed to analyze models of non-constant discounting. An example illu- strates the techniques and determines the conditions under which, in equilibrium, there is under-investment or over-investment in natural capital.     

Embracing invention similarity for the measurement of vertically overlapping claims

ABSTRACT

Clear and well-defined patent rights can incentivize innovation by granting monopoly rights to the inventor for a limited period of time in exchange for public disclosure of the invention. However, with cumulative innovation, when a product draws from intellectual property held across multiple firms (including fragmented intellectual property or patent thickets), contracting failures may lead to suboptimal economic outcomes. However, an alternative theory, developed by a variety of scholars, contends that patent thickets have a more ambiguous effect. Researchers have developed several measures to gauge the extent and impact of cumulative innovation and the various channels of patent thickets. This paper contends that mis-measurement may contribute to the incoherence and overall lack of consensus within the patent thickets literature. Specifically, the literature is missing a precise measure of vertically overlapping claims. We propose a new measure of vertically overlapping claims that incorporates invention similarity to more precisely identify inventive overlap. The measure defined in this paper will enable more accurate measurement, and allow for novel economic research on cumulative innovation, fragmentation in intellectual property, and patent thickets within and across all patent jurisdictions.     

上市公司信息披露违规影响因素的实证研究

针对目前中国上市公司信息披露违规事件的频繁发生,选取2003年2月至2004年8月被公开谴责的上市公司作为样本,通过分层随机抽样引入配对样本———期间未被谴责的上市公司,从行业特征、股权结构、规模、盈利能力、负债状况等方面分析被谴责上市公司的特征,实证研究上市公司发生信息披露违规的影响因素。研究结果表明,行业特征、公司的规模以及盈利能力对其发生信息披露违规有显著的影响作用。     

Habit Formation in an Overlapping Generations Model with Borrowing Constraints

We introduce habit‐formation in the three‐period OLG borrowing‐constrained framework of Constantinides et al. (2002) by allowing the utility of the middle‐aged (old) to depend on consumption when young (middle‐aged). This specification enables us to separate the effect of the two habit parameters (middle‐aged and old) since each representative age‐group can face different levels of habit persistence. The two‐habit setup underlines some important issues with regards to savings and security returns which do not always conform to the standard findings in the literature. In addition, the model produces equity premium consistent with US data for relatively small levels of risk aversion.     

Welfare effects of bubbles in an endogenous growth model

This paper examines welfare effects of asset bubbles in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. In our model, a steady-state equilibrium with bubbles exists only if the presence of bubbles raises the welfare level of the initial generation. Bubbles can be beneficial to generations born at relatively early dates, whereas they reduce the welfare level of sufficiently distant future generations. Increasing the rate of supply of the useless asset improves the lifetime utilities of future generations.     

Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions

In applications of structural VAR modeling, finite-sample properties may be difficult to obtain when certain identifying restrictions are imposed on lagged relationships. As a result, even though imposing some lagged restrictions makes economic sense, lagged relationships are often left unrestricted to make statistical inference more convenient. This paper develops block Monte Carlo methods to obtain both maximum likelihood estimates and exact Bayesian inference when certain types of restrictions are imposed on the lag structure. These methods are applied to two examples to illustrate the importance of imposing restrictions on lagged relationships.