Debt rescheduling and the choice between bonds and loans for LDCs' foreign debt

This paper examines less developed country (LDC) borrowers' choice of financing methods. I devleop and test the hypothesis that ex-ante consideration of rescheduling affects LDC borrowers' choice between bonds and commercial loans. Banks can monitor and distinguish between permanent and temporary shocks, while bondholders cannot. Therefore, debt rescheduling based on the nature of economic shocks is feasible with loan financing. Our empirical findings indicate the debt rescheduling is considered exante in LDC lending. In addition, default risk and contract size affect the choice of financing instruments.     

Optimising flight connection times in airline bank structure through Simulated Annealing and Tabu Search algorithms

In hub and spoke airline networks, flight arrivals and departures generally have a bank structure to increase connections among spoke cities through a hub airport in order to provide cheaper service for higher volumes of air traffic. In this study, we introduce the airline bank optimisation problem with a novel mathematical model for improving flight connection times. The mathematical model aims to minimise the total connection times for transfer passengers and generates flight schedules regarding slot capacities in the hub airports. Since the problem is a combinatorial optimisation problem NP-hard and computational complexity increases rapidly for real-world problems, we employ the simulated annealing and the tabu search algorithms to achieve better solutions in a reasonable time. We generate sub-problems using real-world data and investigate the effectiveness of the algorithms. Finally, we present the results of a real case study of a Turkish airline company which has a hub airport connecting the flights between Middle Eastern and European cities.     

Recovering from demand disruptions on an air cargo network

In this work we introduce the Air Cargo Schedule Recovery Problem (ACSRP). In this problem, a carrier airline has to reschedule flights and requests to adapt to last-minute demand changes. We consider three different possible crew management policies that translate into three different way to evaluate the costs of deviating from the original schedule. We formulated the ACSRP as a mixed integer linear programming problem, and tested our implementation on 24 original schedules with up to 30 orders and 8 airports, and 4 different disruption scenarios for each one. Our results show that, against a benchmark recovery policy where only cargo is re-routed, recovery can yield savings of roughly 10%.     

The predictability of debt-servicing difficulties among less developed countries

In this article, multivariate statistical models are derived for forecasting the emergence of arrears of debt-service among less-developed countries. The emphasis of the article is on prediction, and the criterion variable differs from that generally used in earlier research, which focuses on rescheduling. Out-of-sample tests are used to establish theex ante predictive utility of the derived models, which are found to have low error rates. Moreover, the predictive ability appears to be stable over time.     

Predicting air travelers’ no-show and standby behavior using passenger and directional itinerary information

This is the first study of airline travelers’ no-show and standby behavior based on passenger and directional outbound/inbound itinerary data. The paper describes passengers’ behavior based on estimation of a multinomial logit model for domestic US itineraries departing in March 2001 or March 2002. This enables us to explore behavioral differences based on passenger and itinerary characteristics as well as identify differences in rescheduling behavior occurring after September 11, 2001. Benefits of using passenger data to improve forecasting accuracy and support a broad range of managerial decisions are described.     

Trade interdependence, the international financial institutions, and the recent evolution of sovereign-debt renegotiations

This paper analyzes the effect of a debtor country’s pattern of trade with commercial creditors’ home countries on the outcome of debt-rescheduling negotiations. The analysis reveals that a debtor country with more market power has greater leverage in a three-way debt-rescheduling negotiation that includes the debtor country, its creditors and the International Financial Institutions (IFIs). The paper also considers the effects of the IFI sovereign-debt policy on the bargaining power of the parties in debt-rescheduling negotiations. Two bargaining frameworks analyzed and compared in the paper represent the negotiation mechanism at different stages of the IFI sovereign-debt policy evolution.     

Adoption of an IMF programme and debt rescheduling. An empirical analysis

The existence of an empirical relationship between the adoption of an IMF programme and the concession of a debt rescheduling by commercial creditors is tested using a bivariate probit model. If countries who have arrangements with the IMF are more likely than others to obtain a rescheduling of their external debt, we could conclude that the adoption of an IMF programme could work as a sort of signal of a country's “good intent” which is thus rewarded with the debt relief. The results confirm the existence of a significant effect of the adoption of an IMF programme on the subsequent concession of a debt rescheduling by private creditors.     

A matheuristic approach to the air-cargo recovery problem under demand disruption

Air cargo transport is subject to unpredictable changes in expected demand, necessitating adjustments to itinerary planning to recover from such disruptions. We study a flight rescheduling problem to react to cargo demand disruptions in the short run. To increase flexibility, we consider two different cargo assignment policies. We propose a matheuristic approach to solve the problem that provides high-quality solutions in a short computational time, based on column generation in which each subproblem is solved using an ad-hoc heuristic. The approach is tested on demand disruption instances containing up to 75 air cargo orders with different penalty levels. The results show that the proposed method improves profit by 54% over the solution generated by a commercial MIP solver within a 1-h time limit, and by 15% over the solution with the routes fixed as in the original flight planning that only allows cargo to be re-routed. We also show that there exist incremental benefits in the range of 3–5% by allowing cargo for a given order to be transported by various aircraft.     

基于动态约束的炼钢连铸重调度算法设计

针对炼钢连铸过程中出现的新炉次插入的重调度问题,考虑实际生产中的工艺约束,以最小化开工时间差异度、加工机器差异度的加权和为目标函数建立动态调度模型,采用回溯算法与启发式规则结合的算法。用Matlab7.8.0软件对选取的算例进行仿真,结果表明,此算法能保证重调度结果的实时性和有效性。     

Asset Liquidity,Moral Hazard,and Bank Loan Rescheduling

We analyze the bank's decision to reschedule or to foreclose on a loan in default and the borrower's decision to divert lender-financed assets to personal use, i.e., to consume the assets. We show that the debt of borrowers in financial distress that have substantial intangible or highly specialized assets—i.e., illiquid assets—is likely to be rescheduled. Alternatively, banks will likely foreclose on borrowers in distress that have assets that are difficult to monitor. It is the interaction of the asset's liquidity and the borrower moral hazard that helps determine the nature of the equilibrium. When the condition of the borrower upon default is observable, we find that suboptimal foreclosures are possible but reschedulings are always optimal; when the borrower's condition is private information, however, reschedulings may also be suboptimal. Additionally, borrowers whose lenders foreclose are more impaired then those whose debt is rescheduled. Finally, we show that randomization of the rescheduling/foreclosure decision by the bank and the decision to consume by the borrower may be optimal for particular assets.