2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主菲尔普斯理论述评

本文介绍了2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃德蒙·菲尔普斯的主要理论贡献。他在宏观经济政策跨期权衡分析、“黄金律”与经济增长、宏观经济政策的“短期—长期”分析、“自然率”、构建宏观经济学的微观基础,以及结构性萧条与繁荣等诸多领域进行了开创性的研究。菲尔普斯的理论和主张对西方经济理论和经济政策的研究都有十分重大的影响,对我国宏观经济问题和政策的研究有一定借鉴意义。     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

FDI对湖南省的经济增长效应及其地域梯度差异的实证分析

通过回归分析法,实证分析外商直接投资(FDI)对湖南省经济增长的影响,并采用Q型聚类层次法进一步探讨FDI对湖南各地区经济增长影响的不平衡性。结果表明:FDI对湖南省经济促进效应显著,且主要是靠短期需求拉动经济增长,FDI的滞后期为3年,滞后的FDI对经济的贡献小于当年对GDP的贡献。FDI对省内各地区经济的贡献表现出相当大的差异性,且这种差距呈扩大态势,值得引起高度警惕。     

Economic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

Use of biofuels diminishes fossil fuelcombustion thereby also reducing net greenhousegas emissions. However, subsidies are neededto make agricultural biofuel productioneconomically feasible. To explore the economicpotential of biofuels in a greenhouse gasmitigation market, we incorporate data onproduction and biofuel processing for thedesignated energy crops switchgrass, hybridpoplar, and willow in an U.S. AgriculturalSector Model along with data on traditionalcrop-livestock production and processing, andafforestation of cropland. Net emissioncoefficients on all included agriculturalpractices are estimated through crop growthsimulation models or taken from the literature. Potential emission mitigation policies ormarkets are simulated via hypothetical carbonprices. At each carbon price level, theAgricultural Sector Model computes the newmarket equilibrium, revealing agriculturalcommodity prices, regionally specificproduction, input use, and welfare levels,environmental impacts, and adoption ofalternative management practices such asbiofuel production. Results indicate no rolefor biofuels below carbon prices of $40 perton of carbon equivalent. At these incentivelevels, emission reductions via reduced soiltillage and afforestation are more costefficient. For carbon prices above $70,biofuels dominate all other agriculturalmitigation strategies.     

浅析远程监控的数据传输

文章论述了远程监控系统数据传输技术的重要性以及常用的几种实现方式,并对其优缺点进行了比较和分析。文中分析了利用全球移动通信系统(GSM)进行数据传输的优越性,并介绍了GSM传输的3种方式的特点,各自的实现方式,最后展望了远程监控数据传输的发展前景。     

视频会议系统应用中的安全策略

文章从系统数据传输加密和构筑系统的安全环境两个方面介绍了视频会议系统应用中应注意的安全问题。同时,用实验数据说明在VPN下构筑小型视频会议的视频传输速率无影响。     

导致企业“短寿”的四大战略管理陷阱

企业"短寿"的原因很多,简直不胜枚举。我们这里探讨的是在企业战略管理中有可能危及企业生存的四种倾向:追逐利润、追求规模、人才匮乏和盲目多元化。实践证明,绝大多数"短寿"的企业在其"生存期"都可找到以上管理行为的影子。尤其悲哀的是:这些"短寿"陷阱在当初是作为企业的战略目标而被追求之,殊不知,其追求力度越大、追求时间越久,企业离"寿终正寝"就越近。本文的目的是提醒企业经营者时刻警惕这些可能造成企业"短寿"的战略管理陷阱。     

“机械制图用计算机信息交换制图规则”中的若干问题探讨

分析讨论了ＧＢ／Ｔ１４６６５－９３《机械制图用计算机信息交换、制图规则》中存在的问题与错误,并提出了相应的修正建议。     

我国股份制商业银行薪酬激励有效性研究

我国股份制商业银行薪酬激励存在一些不足，原因在于薪酬激励的自身因素和薪酬环境因素两方面。自身因素主要包括忽视长期行为激励、缺乏同业竞争优势、轻视普通员工激励；环境因素主要有银行治理结构不完善、市场非充分有效、法规制度不健全等。本文通过对商业银行高管人员及普通员工的薪酬与业绩相关性进行实证检验，认为我国商业银行薪酬激励基本上是有效的，但是其有效性并不十分理想。据此，本文提出了提升我国商业银行薪酬激励有效性的具体建议：从微观层面看，优化薪酬激励机制：从中观层面看，强化商业银行治理结构；从宏观层面看，改善外部相关环境。