Change-point detection for expected shortfall in time series

Expected shortfall (ES) is a popular risk measure and plays an important role in risk and portfolio management. Recently, change-point detection of risk measures has been attracting much attention in finance. Based on the self-normalized CUSUM statistic in Fan, Glynn and Pelger (2018) and the Wild Binary Segmentation (WBS) algorithm in Fryzlewicz (2014), this paper proposes a variant WBS procedure to detect and estimate change points of ES in time series. The strengthened Schwarz information criterion is also introduced to determine the number of change points. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of our variant WBS procedure about ES in time series. An empirical application is given to illustrate the usefulness of our procedure.     

Issues in the estimation and application of latent structure models of choice

Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future.     

三线铁路荷载作用下箱梁桥荷载横向分布系数

文章运用有限元程序对三线铁路预应力混凝土连续箱梁桥进行了模拟,分析了三线铁路荷载作用下箱梁的受力特性及在各种荷载工况下荷载横向分布规律,给出了荷载横向系数的实用值。     

Another view on optimal design for estimating the point of extremum in quadratic regression

In this paper we illustrate how certain design problems can be simplified by reparametrization of the response function. This alternative viewpoint provides further insights than the more traditional approaches, like minimax, Bayesian or sequential techniques. It will also improve a practitioner’s understanding of more general situations and their “classical” treatment.     

随机存货决策中的安全库存研究

在有短缺成本下 ,讨论了再定购点的确定 ,着重分析了安全库存的一种简易计算。     

EMBEDDED MATRICES FOR FINITE MARKOV CHAINS

For an arbitrary subset A of the finite state space 5 of a Markov chain the so–called embedded matrix P _A is introduced. By use of these matrices formulas expressing all kinds of probabilities can be written down almost automatically, and calculated very easily on a computer. Also derivations can be given very systematically.     

公路桥梁的抗震分析

文章针对公路桥梁,利用有限元方法分析在地震载荷下的应力分布规律,为桥梁抗震设计提供依据。     

Designs for estimating an extremal point of quadratic regression models in a hyperball

This paper is devoted to studying optimal designs for estimating an extremal point of a multivariate quadratic regression model in the unit hyperball. The problem of estimating an extremal point is reduced to that of estimating certain parameters of a corresponding nonlinear (in parameters) regression model. For this reduced problem truncated locally D-optimal designs are found in an explicit form. The result is a generalization of the results of Fedorov and Müller (1997) for onedimensional quadratic regression function in the unit segment. Received February 2002     

论检验直接成本和间接成本的平衡及平衡点的经济意义

分析了工业企业外购物品检验成本的两个组成部分:检验过程直接投入的要素成本和检验结果失准诱发的问接成本,并分析论证了二者的习性、平衡条件以及平衡点的计算方法及应用。     

VMI模式下最优订货点的仿真研究

通过VMI模式下订货流程的模拟,根据客户订货前置期的历史统计数据或分布函数,利用Arena软件求解配送中心最优订货点。研究表明,仿真分析能获得比常规数学方法更科学合理的最优订货点。