Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement

Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.     

Strong Nash equilibrium in games with common and complementary local utilities

A rather general class of strategic games is described where the coalitional improvements are acyclic and hence strong Nash equilibria exist: The players derive their utilities from the use of certain facilities; all players using a facility extract the same amount of local utility therefrom, which amount depends both on the set of users and on their actions, and is decreasing in the set of users; the ultimate utility of each player is the minimum of the local utilities at all relevant facilities. Two important subclasses are “games with structured utilities,” basic properties of which were discovered in 1970s and 1980s, and “bottleneck congestion games,” which attracted researchers’ attention quite recently. The former games are representative in the sense that every game from the whole class is isomorphic to one of them. The necessity of the minimum aggregation for the existence of strong Nash equilibria, actually, just Pareto optimal Nash equilibria, in all games of this type is established.     

Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers

Research Summary : How can strategic decision makers overcome inertia when dealing with change? In this article we argue that cognitive flexibility (i.e., the ability to match the type of cognitive processing with the type of problem at hand) enables decision makers to achieve significantly higher decision‐making performance. We show that superior decision‐making performance is associated with using semiautomatic Type 1 cognitive processes when faced with well‐structured problems, and more deliberative Type 2 processes when faced with ill‐structured problems. Our findings shed light on the individual‐level mechanism behind organizational adaptation and complement recent work on strategic inertia. In addition, our findings extend management studies that have stressed the relevance of cognitive flexibility for responding to the demands of increasingly open, flexible, and rapidly changing organizations. Managerial Summary : Humans are creatures of habits. We tend to prefer known courses of action over new ones. In many cases, habits are good. However, when things change in unpredictable ways, the past may not be good guidance for the future. We argue that “cognitive flexibility”—the ability of understanding when to rely on habits vs. when to explore new courses of action—enables managers to switch from a “fast” decision mode, based on habits, to a “slow,” more deliberate decision mode that facilitates the exploration of new courses of action. Managers high in cognitive flexibility reflect on the situation at hand, recognize and value diversity in viewpoints, and integrate such diversity in their own decision processes. By valuing diversity, they are more likely to overcome inertia.     

An evaluation framework for the sustainable operation of leisure farms

The Taiwanese government’s promotion of domestic travel has generated high demand for leisure farming, resulting in the increasing establishment of leisure farms and an intensification of competition. A key concern for farm operators is how to operate and develop farms according to the principles of sustainability. Through a literature review, in-depth interviews and a modified Delphi technique, this study developed an evaluation framework for the sustainable operation of leisure farms. From the study results, we derived 39 indicators encompassing the five dimensions, namely social sustainability, economic sustainability, environmental sustainability, resource sustainability and management sustainability. The implications of these findings for managing leisure farms and future research directions are discussed.     

中国奖励旅游经营的特征、问题与思考——基于旅行社的访谈分析

文章在对广州市10家代表性旅行社的会奖负责人进行半结构性深度访谈的基础上,运用内容分析的方法,提炼出现阶段中国奖励旅游经营的特征与面临的共性问题,主要有：对奖励旅游的内涵认知国内更关注旅游成本的来源而不是活动的激励效果;购买方消费习惯不成熟、目的性不强、交易中平等沟通意识不够;奖励旅游中间商提供的产品创意性不强、组织结构不适应,管理科技含量低且与买方关系结合方式不稳定;供应商与中间商合作不稳定、服务灵活性不强且对目的地支持的依赖程度高。进一步指出,在中国传统文化下,重集体主义的奖励理念影响了消费意识;旅游业自身的结构性障碍及多重委托代理下的旅行社供应链地位不稳定造成行业的无序竞争与产品质量的难以控制;政府促进下的行业管理组织的成立是规范经营的重要途径。     

浅谈对企业招聘工作的评估

招聘是人力资源工作中重要的一个环节,但是大多数企业的招聘工作都缺少了评估这一环节。对招聘工作的评估可以提高企业招聘工作的效率,为企业更快,更经济的找到合适的雇员。对招聘工作的评估主要可以从招聘过程中和招聘过程后两方面展开。     

单帧编码结构光模式分类及其典型应用

根据编码模式生成机理的不同,对单帧编码结构先进行了新分类,分析了技术特点及发展趋势.M阵列编码是一种典型的单帧模式,设计了一种基于M阵列的单帧符号编码结构光模式.重建目标实验表明,可以获得物体较为光滑、完整的三维形廓,丰富、拓展了单帧结构光技术.     

美国货币政策对中国经济动态冲击的实证研究

本文对美国货币政策对我国实体经济的冲击效应进行了实证检验,结构化动态冲击分析表明,美国货币政策正向冲击(1)短期内会引起中国总产出、出口总额的增加,长期中则会导致中国总产出、出口总额的下降;(2)短期内会造成中国进口总额的上升,长期中最终会对中国进口总额产生负向冲击;(3)方差分解结果显示,美国货币政策的正向冲击对中国出口总额的影响最大。(4)美国货币政策对中国实体经济影响程度相对于国内部分学者的结论较小。     

基于非良构知识特征的管理学本科教学改革

现代管理学知识及其教学越来越具有非良构领域特征,基于此的管理学本科教学改革要应用随机通达教学观与认知灵活性超文本,为学习者提供管理学知识的多元表征并鼓励其自身对知识进行多元建构,使知识富有弹性,以灵活适应变化的情境,增强知识的迁移性和覆盖面.     

我国结构性理财产品的开发研究

近年来,结构性理财产品正在我国兴起,并逐步受到投资者的青睐。但在发展过程中,我国结构性理财产品存在一些问题,制约了市场发展。本文在分析发展现状和存在问题的基础上,提出了发展对策与建议。