Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

Greater patience and monetary expenditure: How shopping with companions influences purchase decisions

Shopping with companions plays a crucial role in daily consumer activities. However, only a few studies have explored the influence of this factor on consumers’ patience. We conducted four studies, including two field studies, to investigate the effects of shopping with companions (e.g., friends and peers) on purchase decisions. We found that consumers exerted greater effort when shopping with friends and peers by spending more money and being willing to wait longer for a product. This effect could be explained by three mediators: positive emotions, negative emotions, and perceived value, in which the hedonic and social value, unlike the utilitarian value, played essential mediating roles. This study elucidates the underlying psychological processes involved in purchase decisions shaped by companions. Retailers should encourage shopping with companions to increase sales and customer retention.     

The impact of wearable devices on employee wellness programs: A study of hotel industry workers

Hospitality workplaces are particularly challenging contexts in which to implement wellness initiatives. The present study implemented a technology-based wellness intervention to improve various aspects of employee wellness in contemporary hotel workplaces. The participants were given a wearable device (Fitbit, used here as an innovative tool) in order to monitor their activity levels and sleep patterns over a 14-day period. Additionally, the participants provided researchers with food diaries in separate electronic form. Information regarding job satisfaction, job engagement, organizational citizenship behaviors, and intention to leave was obtained before and after the observation period. The results demonstrate an increase in physical activity, an increase in healthy food consumption, and a reduction in overall caloric intake. Furthermore, positive changes in employee engagement, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment were noted. Care should be exercised when implementing such interventions in order to ensure data privacy and positive employee relations.     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

论如何遏制大学生不当消费

当前大学生存在过分追求物质享受、志趣媚俗、品位低下、花钱无度等不当消费现象,教育部门应注重经常性教育引导,增强学生自警自控力;强化多重管理机制,增强学生自我约束力;注重营造良好的校园环境,增强学生的凝聚力。     

A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability

We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns more subjects to the better treatment. Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions.     

高等职业教育应担负起创新型人才培养的重任

培养创新型人才是高等职业教育的神圣使命,在创新型人才培养中,必须做好转变观念齐抓共育,创造条件加强实践,建立机制引导创新,以点带面不断完善,勇于探索不断创新。     

Testing Rival Theories of Budgetary Decision–making in the US States

This article tests three common budgetary decision–making theories in the US states. Pooled time series cross–section analysis is used from 1960 to 1996 to test the garbage can theory and incrementalism, and from 1989 to 1996 to test various theories of rational budgeting. The results demonstrate that there was some support for all three theories in terms of their impact on reducing state budget outputs. Rational budgeting reduces expenditures in aggregate, incrementalism has relatively low explanatory power below the aggregates, and garbage can budgeting is more prevalent in functional areas than for government as a whole. These findings imply that the future research agenda on budgetary decision–making theories should focus more on a system–wide approach, which takes into account many of the characteristics of all three rival models of decision–making, rather than exclusively focusing on each one singly.     

高师实施人文教育的意义及对策

人文教育在高师教育体系中具有重要意义,人文教育可以塑造高师生的完美人格,实现教育的可持续发展.高师院校要实施有效的人文教育,就必须树立正确的教育理念,加强教师队伍建设,提高教师素质,增设人文课程,为高师生营造良好的人文环境.     

高校女生体育课堂教学的现状及对策

调查发现女生中只有33．97％对体育课有兴趣，原因是：体育意识不成熟、教材存在重复现象、有严重的心理障碍、没有突破传统的教学方法、课外活动缺乏行之有效的组织管理等。应采取的措施有：明确高校体育教育理念、加强思想教育、改革体育教学模式、合理选择教学内容和方法等。