富水砂层盾构接收技术

针对富水砂层盾构接收易发生渗漏、涌砂、安全风险大等问题。在大量工程实践基础上,总结出以控制地下水为重点、坚持预防为主的施工理念,形成端头加固、止水帷幕、环箍注浆及止水装置的富水地层盾构接收技术,牢筑三道止水防线。技术成果在多项依托工程中成功应用,确保了该类地层盾构接收安全和风险可控。     

Testing the asymmetric effects of exchange rate pass‐through in BRICS countries: Does the state of the economy matter?

This paper investigates not only the question of whether there is exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) but also the extent to which the pass‐through is asymmetric or state‐dependent in the BRICS countries. Using monthly data from 1999:M1 to 2019:M12 and non‐linear smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model, our results provide evidence of period‐specific ERPT between the upper and lower regime periods, governed by the selected transition variables. The results further suggest that the pass‐through of exchange rate is higher when the economy is experiencing large appreciations and expansions as well as large depreciations and recessions. Theimplication for these findings is that ERPT is strongly affected by the state of the economy.     

A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

Health screening strategies for international air travelers during an epidemic or pandemic

Air travelers can carry an infectious disease's pathogenic microorganism in their bodies and spread the disease from one country to another in a few days. To delay the spread, health screening stations may be set up at airport terminals to screen travelers. This research tested three different health screening strategies, each with a different combination of screening stations at trip origins, destinations and connecting airports. Discrete event simulations were performed, based on the 2014 to 2016 Ebola virus epidemic, with special focus on travelers from the West African countries traveling to the United States, including travelers who transferred flights at airports in European Union member states. The effectiveness of the screening strategies was analyzed in terms of correct detection, missed detection and false alarm rate. The results showed that exit screening at trip origins brought big improvements in the performance measurements compared to no screening. However, additional screening at the destinations and connecting airports contributed marginal benefits.     

Sources of Productivity Growth Dynamics: Is Japan Suffering From Baumol's Growth Disease?

This study examines the sources of labor productivity growth dynamics in Japan (1970–2010) and investigates the extent to which Japanese economic performance has been affected by Baumol's growth disease (BGD). We find that BGD silently undermines Japanese economic growth. However, the magnitude is miniscule, and consequently the aggregate labor productivity growth rate has not been decreasing monotonically. We also explore how BGD is arising and why it is small in the Japanese economy. BGD is weak because (1) the positive Baumol growth effect is also working in certain services sectors and (2) BGD is not a durable phenomenon: even if a sector begins to suffer from BGD, it is likely to recover quickly.     

Advancing environmental productivity: Organizational mindfulness and strategies

This study investigates the importance of mindfulness‐based organization systems and policies on the organization's continuous efforts to become a greener company. The study is devised as a pooled cross‐sectional time series analysis of productivity in energy consumption, water utilization, and waste generation and recycling of U.S. companies. The data set taken from U.S. Newsweek 500 recorded 600 companies dispersed into 63 industries during the period of 2012–2014 and provided 1,498 company–industry–year observations. The study found that systems and policies (e.g., deployment of third‐party auditors for its environmental metrics report; linkage of the remuneration of company's senior executive team with the achievement of environmental performance targets; and establishment of a committee at the Board of Directors' level whose mandate includes sustainability of the company in environment‐ and resource‐related matters) connect the company's mindfulness to its effort in improving the environmental quality through the company's productivity in energy consumption, water utilization, and waste generation and recycling. The relationships are positive and significant. Also, systems and policies serve as a motivator for the firm to continue to improve upon the current achievements. The study emphasizes the importance of translating organizational and individual mindfulness into organization policies and systems in order to motivate the organization to continuously improve its productivity in energy consumption, water utilization, and waste generation and recycling leading to improvements in environmental quality.     

延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

构造信贷市场资金价格形成机制分析——对定南县贷款利率市场化改革的个案研究

文章通过对江西定南县利率改革试点进行个案研究，从宏观和微观两个层面探讨了如何构造信贷市场资金价格形成机制。     

Generating Enhanced Fishery Rents by Internalizing Product Quality Characteristics

This paper demonstrates howadditional rents are generated in a fisherycharacterized by intraseasonal variation infish characteristics, including size,condition, and composition. Based on anexpanded conceptual model of the optimalharvest rule, fish characteristics affect preand post harvest production yields and outputprices. A dynamic empirical model, which uses asystem of quality characteristics and anhedonic equation, illustrates the complexrelationships and management choices associatedwith internalizing seafood qualitycharacteristics in a hake fishery. The modelretains the regulated open access managementsystem, but controls intertemporal andintersectoral quotas, production portfolios,and total allowable catch. Results demonstratethat including revenue-side effects frominternalizing fish quality can generatesignificantly greater rents and reduce therelative benefits of increased productionyields. If excluded, bioeconomic models canunderestimate the level of regulatory rentdissipation and overemphasize managementobjectives such as full utilization, whichcould misdirect processing decisions and resultin a suboptimal resource management plan.Implications for data collection,multidisciplinary analysis, and improvements inmarine resource management are discussed.