Technological change in energy systems: Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R&D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R&D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does.     

50D/144F涤纶POY扁平丝生产工艺

在熔体直纺环吹风冷却工艺路线上,使用“—”型喷丝板,设置缓和的冷却条件,适当的无风区高度,纺丝温度及纺丝速度,开发生产50D/144F扁平丝。     

关于中国风电发展的思考

对我国风电发展目标、风电设备国产化及制造产业的发展时机、风电市场培育以及其他事关我国风电发展的相关问题进行了分析和思考,供关注我国风电发展的社会各界参考.     

我国风电设备制造业的现状和发展前景

对国内外风力发电的现状进行了总结,然后对国内外风电设备制造业的现状作了详细的分析,指出我国风电设备制造业要想尽快实现大中型风电设备国产化,降低风电电价,就必须准确把握当今风电设备的发展趋势,准确选型,积极购买或引进专利技术,逐步实现固产化,最终形成产品系列自主开发的能力。最后指出了当今风电机组设备的主流和发展趋势,并作了一些比较。     

白银地区风电产业发展现状分析与对策研究

随着国家发展清洁能源与实现绿色增长等低碳目标的提出,风电产业得到了快速发展。风力资源优良的白银地区抓住机遇大力发展风电产业,但由于风电具有的随机性以及间歇性的特点,会给电网的稳定和安全运行带来巨大冲击。本文对白银地区风电并网情况、建设规划情况进行了分析,剖析了当地风电产业存在的问题及其原因,并从电源和电网的协调发展、相关政策和标准体系建设等方面提出了改善措施和建议,对促进白银地区风电发展具有一定的借鉴作用。     

基于平价上网的海上风电可靠性研究

海上风电是最具规模化开发价值的可再生能源,预计2020年我国累计装机容量突破8.5GW。海上风电的运维成本在度电成本占比25%～40%。2019年起国家推行风电平价上网,对海上风电的发展带来深刻影响。通过海上风电度电成本分析,建立成本-效益模型。研究发现,风电设备的可靠性、可利用率决定了运维成本和度电成本的水平。基于成本-效益模型测算某海上风电项目的度电成本,风机设备可利用率为97.15%时,运维成本下降26.88%,度电成本最低,为0.575 2元/kW·h。     

不确定性条件下风电并网成本分摊方式对风电供给函数的影响

根据风电间歇性特点,分析不同的并网成本分摊方式对风电供给函数的影响。基于并网成本是可再生能源投资的一个重要组成部分,研究风电生产商和电网运营商的成本分配责任界限,和不同的并网成本分摊方式对分配机制的影响。结果证明:若并网成本由电网运营商来承担,则会产生较低的生产者剩余并且致使电力消费者获得较少的转移成本。     

Public acceptance of and heterogeneity in behavioral beach trip responses to offshore wind farm development in Catalonia (Spain)

A combined travel cost – contingent behaviour survey of residents and tourists in Catalonia is conducted on-site to examine the effects on beach recreational demand of developing an offshore wind farm (OWF) project. The survey considers four potential OWF scenarios with different degrees of visual impact. We allow for heterogeneity in trip preferences among individuals and control for on-site sampling through the use of a random parameters negative binomial (RPNB) model and a Multivariate Poisson log-normal (MPLN) model, respectively. The welfare measures derived from the RPNB model relate to the current beach users only, whereas those from the MPLN model refer to the general population of residents and tourists in Catalonia. The results show the importance of the specific place of location of the OWF project and how the installation of wind turbines would significantly decrease the demand for trips, depending on their degree of visual impacts, leading to a substantial welfare loss. However, the results also show that the project mainly would cause a displacement of trips to other beaches within Catalonia rather than outside Catalonia and that the welfare per trip measures generated by the RPNB and MPLN models substantially differ. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

港口物流机械风载荷计算方法研究

风载荷的研究在港口物流机械的设计和计算中占据着重要的地位,主要是因为它对起重机结构强度和稳定性的影响极其重要。而风载荷的确定通常由风力系数、挡风折减系数、有效迎风面积以及相应条件下的风压确定。     

石化企业仪表风空气干燥装置的改造

针对目前一些石化企业中旧的设备在运行中出现的问题,通过使用PLC控制改造后进行优化控制,以达到石化行业中生产装置的安全、稳定、长期、满载、优质运行的要求。介绍了仪表风空气干燥装置的可编程控制器控制改造。