A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability

We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns more subjects to the better treatment. Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions.     

Family and sex-specific U.S. immigration from Europe, 1870–1910: A panel data study of rates and composition

This paper develops and estimates models of family and sex-specific emigration, as well as the sex composition of this emigration, from 12 European source countries to the U.S. for the period 1870–1910. The models are based on the distinction between economic migrants (males, single females, and some married females) and tied or trailing migrants (females) and are estimated with panel data, including data that relate to the occupational/industrial structure of male and female economic activity in source countries. Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable estimates suggest that although both males and females responded to labor-market signals, males were more responsive than females to per capita GDP differences. Moreover, compared to the rest of Europe, Ireland, and Scandinavia were the sources of many young, single male, and female migrants, who responded strongly to gaps in economic opportunities. In fact, much of the European response to such gaps appears to be due to migrants from Ireland and Scandinavia. Females tended to originate in English-speaking countries and countries that were agriculturally oriented. Service and manufacturing jobs in source countries discouraged the migration of females relative to males. Males tended to follow recent migrants more than females, but females responded more to long-term influences as measured by stocks of migrants from their source countries who had previously settled in the U.S. Countries with high birth rates had relatively fewer female emigrants, whereas those with high rates of natural increase 20 years earlier experienced relatively more male emigration. Intact families, other family members (including family-strategy male migrants and trailing female migrants), and single males and females responded strongly to economic incentives, but the singles were most responsive followed by family-strategy males.     

Introduction to research on Hirschman's Exit,Voice, and Loyalty model

This article introduces this special issue of theEmployee Responsibilities and Rights Journal on recent work exploring Albert O. Hirschman's Exit, Voice, and Loyalty model of dissatisfaction. This special issue provides a forum for researchers and theorists with various perspectives on the model to present their ideas in one place. There are six original articles in this issue, and one discussion piece. While these articles do not resolve the controversies surrounding the Exit, Voice, and Loyalty model, they do provide a clear picture of the current status of research and theory on dissatisfaction in organizations from this perspective.     

Competition as a track for preventing illegal immigration

Rich countries often face sizeable illegal migration. This paper suggests that these countries would use the financial aid which they give to the source countries as an instrument to prevent illegal immigration. The core of this policy is to allow the source countries to compete for the pre-determined aid, which would be distributed according to the cross-proportion of the apprehended illegal aliens. Moreover, we show that it may be beneficial for the rich country to split the source countries into competing pairs rather than allowing all of them to compete jointly. The rich country has basically two policy means: funds allocated to strengthening its border control; and the foreign aid given to the source countries. The multi-country general equilibrium model presented shows how the rich country, by choosing an appropriate mix of these two policy means, can minimize the number of illegal immigrants subject to its budget constrain.Received: 15 August 2002, Accepted: 21 January 2004, JEL Classification: F22Nava Kahana, Tikva Lecker: The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for their valuable comments.     

江泽民人才思想初探

江泽民同志指出,人才是科技进步和经济社会发展最重要的资源,国家科技和经济的大发展必须靠知识,靠人才。本文从江泽民人才思想的发展、人才在实施科教兴国战略中的地位和作用、新形势下培养人才的标准以及人才的选拔和使用等方面对江泽民人才思想的核心内容进行重点解读,以期为新世纪社会主义人才队伍建设和管理工作提供一定的理论参考。     

毛泽东《论持久战》中的辩证法思想

本文就毛泽东在《论持久战》中所运用的唯物辩证法思想作一浅显的分析,特别是文中对中日双方矛盾特点的分析、敌我优劣形势相互转换等问题所运用的对立统一规律作一简要的分析。     

关于温州模式的深层次思考

"温州模式"的成功依赖于其独特的外部条件和内在动因.与其他地区客观环境的差异和自身发展的局限,使得"温州模式"在现阶段并不适合普遍地被我国其他地区所接受.只有当"温州模式"实现了新的转换,焕发出又一轮强大生命力时,其普遍性才能真正的体现出来.因此,就目前阶段而言,"温州模式"只具备可借鉴性,而不具备广泛意义上的普遍性.     

三峡库区发展高效生态农业的途径和对策

论述高效生态农业在三峡库区建设和移民安置中的战略意义。从三峡库区实际出发，分析库区高效生态农业发展的现状和难点、机遇和方向。指出高效生态农业的发展不仅能给库区移民带来显著的经济效益，促进库区农业、环境、社会的持续发展，而且能确保三峡工程建设顺利进行和长治久安。并针对目前库区农业存在的问题，提出了库区农业高效生态化及产业化的发展对策。     

毛泽东的政府职能理论及其启示意义

毛泽东在领导中国革命和建设的长期实践中,对我国的政府管理体制进行了积极的探索,并提出了初步的改革思路,形成了独特的政府职能理论体系。研究毛泽东政府职能理论对于构建有中国特色的政府职能理论体系,继续推进我国政府管理体制改革和政府职能转变具有重要的启示意义。     

区域可持续发展预警系统研究

从系统观念出发，研究了区域可持续发展预警系统的功能与基本结构问题，并结合洛阳实际，设计了预警系统指标体系、衡量与评价方案，旨在尝试构建可持续发展预警系统的框架，为可持续发展的定量研究提供一个新的思路。