Progressive stress accelerated life tests under finite mixture models

In this paper, progressive stress accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of a product under use condition follows a finite mixture of distributions. The experiment is performed when each of the components in the mixture follows a general class of distributions which includes, among others, the Weibull, compound Weibull, power function, Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions. It is assumed that the scale parameter of each component satisfies the inverse power low, the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Based on type-I censoring, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the parameters under consideration are obtained. A special attention is paid to a mixture of two Rayleigh components. Simulation results are carried out to study the precision of the MLEs and to obtain confidence intervals for the parameters involved.     

外债风险预警模型及中国金融安全状况评估

本文提出了一个用于预警一国外债风险的动态模型 ,即多元累计和模型。模型的用户 (债权人和债务国 )能很早地预测到可能导致债务国重订债务期限的金融危机。实证分析结果表明 ,模型具有提前 3年探测到债务国潜在的还债困难的能力。对中国经济金融安全状况的评估结果表明 ,模型可提前 1年发出预警信号。     

试论我国财税法律体系的完善

经济的和谐发展呼吁完善的财税法律体系。目前,我国传统财税法律体系已经不能适应和谐发展的新要求,以科学发展观为指导,创新财税法学研究方法和研究范式,构建新的财税法律体系和拓展财税法学的理论空间,已经成为财税理论研讨中的新趋势。因此,宜从我国财政危机的法律原因入手,分析产生这些问题的法治根源,并提出创新财税法治观念、构建新的财税法律体系的思路。     

The internal dynamic of Indian economic growth

A stylised fact of India's economic history since 1950 is that the rate of growth of the economy has accelerated periodically and across policy regimes. In this paper we present a theoretical framework that can generate such a pattern due to cumulative causation through positive feedback. The growth process is then investigated using cointegration analysis. We are able to establish the existence of positive feedback which is at the centre of cumulative causation. We are also able to date the onset of this mechanism which has driven growth in India for close to half a century by now. This leads us to conclude that the internal dynamics are at least as important as the policy regimes to understand growth over the long term in this country.     

Intellectual property rights in a quality-ladder model with persistent leadership

This paper analyzes the effects of intellectual property rights in a quality-ladder model of endogenous growth in which incumbent firms preemptively innovate in order to keep their position of leadership. Unlike in models with leapfrogging, granting forward protection, and imposing a non-obviousness requirement reduces growth. In the main case where entrants and incumbents have free access to the same R&D technology, infinite protection against imitation, granted independently of the size of the lead, maximizes growth. If entrants have to engage in costly catch up before they can undertake frontier R&D, growth is maximal for a finite (expected) length of protection against imitation.     

Do innovative emerging market cross-border acquirers create more shareholder value? Evidence from India

This study attempts to investigate the role of absorptive capacity of emerging market firms in creating shareholder value from developed market acquisitions. It analyzes the cumulative abnormal return of cross border acquisitions of listed Indian firms in Europe focusing on acquirers’ research intensity. The study discovers a U-shaped relationship between research intensity of Indian acquirers and their cumulative abnormal return following acquisitions in Europe. As such, firms with no research capacity can benefit from the acquisition by accessing advanced targets, although firms with extensive research capacity outperform any of their Indian competitors as these firms have the absorptive capacity to not only exploit but also explore the knowledge base of the acquired target. Furthermore, we found a positive effect of the acquisition of a high-tech target company, regardless of the absorptive capacity of the acquirer. We also found that business group membership has a positive impact on shareholder value, although horizontal acquisitions as compared to vertical and unrelated deals have a significantly negative impact for these companies. This result is again linked to the more explorative nature of vertical and unrelated acquisitions in comparison with horizontal deals that are more based on the exploitation of existing resources and capabilities.     

Welfare State, Market Imperfections, and International Trade

Within a two-sector-two-country model of trade with aggregate scale economies and unionisation, a more generous welfare state in one country increases welfare in that country and can have positive spillover effects on the other. Furthermore, synchronised expansions of social security are more welfare enhancing than unilateral ones. Our results counter the fears that a race to the bottom in social standards may result from the ‘shrinking-tax-base’ entailed by international capital mobility. While affecting trade patterns and income distribution, capital mobility interacts with welfare state policies in increasing welfare, even when capital flows out of the country that initiates the shock.

网络成瘾学生的教育引导策略研究

网络成瘾与人格倾向、人际交往、社会支持和元认知等因素相关。针对少数学生网络成瘾,高校要予以关注、预防,鼓励他们进行人际交往,改善其现实社会支持系统,有针对性地进行目的、计划、自控和意志能力训练,积极加以引导和调适。     

累积创新框架下的知识产权保护研究

本文通过构建累积创新框架下的拍卖模型来探讨知识产权制度的社会福利效应,比较各种具体制度的效率及在各种特殊的产业中的应用保护。基于存在领先厂商情况下累积创新过程中的创新竞赛问题的分析,可以得到三种不同策略情形下的社会福利函数,并确定知识产权保护程度的适用范围。研究结论的应用扩展表明:以生物技术、电子和医药等为主的行业,适用比较严格的保护制度进行保护,如专利制度;以计算机软件、音乐、书籍和期刊等为主的行业,适用比较宽松的保护制度进行保护,如版权制度。     

英美法系双层次因果关系之借鉴

英美刑法在因果关系的认定上采双层次模式,先进行事实因果判断,再进行法律因果判断。事实因果判断以but-for原则为核心,在“并行因果关系”和不当扩张处罚范围的场合应当分别采用NESS标准和实质因素标准进行修正。法律因果判断以“近因”为核心,旨在考察行为发生结果的盖然性和介入因素造成结果的盖然性比较。预见说有主观归罪嫌疑,观念说过于抽象,政策说将行为人作为工具看待,它们均存在缺陷,只能作为判断“近因”的考察因素。英美法系的双层次因果关系判断相比大陆法系的因果关系理论逻辑清晰,渗透主观要素,实用主义色彩明显,值得大陆法系刑法理论借鉴。