财政补贴改革刍论

财政补贴是国家宏观调控的杠杆之一,但是,目前补贴不规范,财政补贴数额大、项目繁杂,补贴效果‘异化’,加大了社会不公。为了强化财政补贴杠杆功能,提高财政补贴效益,必须按照建立公共财政的要求,本着满足公共需要原则、弹性补贴制度原则和补贴方式间接化原则,改变“一刀切”和补贴刚性的局面,确保采暖费收支合理化,取消肉食、副食品、粮食等价格补贴,改革国有企业的亏损补贴制度。     

矫枉何须过正--评美国《2000年持续性倾销与补贴补偿法》

2000年底，美国国会通过了《持续性倾销与补贴补偿法》(CDSOA)，依据该法，海关征收的反倾销、反补贴税将以补偿的形式分配给受影响的国内生产者。CDSOA借维护公平贸易之名，行保护主义之实，不但缺乏经济上的合理性，也违背了美国依WT0协定承担的国际义务，从而引起了各国的声讨。     

美国农业补贴政策的演变趋势分析

从1933年第一部系统的农业法开始实行以来,美国先后出台了数十个有关农业补贴的法律,对农业进行了长期高强度的补贴,形成了有特色的补贴体系.     

政府补贴是我国发展农业保险的重要保障——来自我国农业保险试点模式的调研报告

新一轮农业保险试点形成了“安信模式”、“安华模式”、“互助制模式”、“共保体”模式和“安盟模式”等5种模式。从这5种模式运行看,政府补贴是发展农业保险的重要保障,经济发达地区政府补贴多,运行就比较好;经济欠发达地区,政府补贴少,运行就比较困难。建议政府明确采取补贴促进农业保险发展的态度,并加大政府补贴的力度。     

Information processing and innovative choice

In this paper we examine how the information processing of subjects who make an innovative choice (innovators) differs from that of subjects who make a noninnovative choice (noninnovators). The task involves selection of an alternative within a range of prerated product category innovativeness. We propose that subjects who seek 1) impersonal/uncontrollable sources, 2) higher levels of information, 3) more detailed (versus summary) data, and 4) noncomparative (versus comparative) data are more likely to make innovative choices. The research method is a computerized process tracing experiment utilizing Search Monitor (Brucks 1988).The authors wish to express their gratitude to Merrie Brucks for the use of and help with Search Monitor and to Eric Johnson, Dave Schmittlein, and Mita Sujan for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism.Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit.Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit.     

粮食直接补贴面临的问题及对策研究

粮食直接补贴是我国2004年粮食流通体制改革的主要内容之一。直补经过四个阶段的探索和改革,在增加农民收入、保障国家粮食安全等方面取得良好效应。但改革是对政府、企业、农民三者之间利益关系的重大调整,在补贴方法、标准、资金等制度设计和操作过程中还存在很多需要研究的问题。因此,进一步深化改革,尤其是建立产销区间的直补资金转移机制非常重要。     

World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).