The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank

The first six years of ECB monetary policy are examined using a general framework that allows central bankers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation, output and the interest rate from their reference values. The empirical analysis on synthetic euro‐area data suggests that the objective of price stability is symmetric, whereas the objectives of real activity and interest‐rate stabilizations are not. Output contractions imply larger policy responses than output expansions of the same size, while movements in the interest rate are larger when the level of the interest rate is relatively high. The hypothesis of M3 growth‐rate targeting is rejected.     

Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe

Marvin Goodfriend׳s (2014) insightful, informative and provocative work explains concisely and convincingly why the Fed needs rules and boundaries. This paper reviews the broader institutional design problem regarding the effectiveness of the central bank in practice and confirms the need for rules and boundaries. The framework proposed for improving the Fed incorporates key elements that have already been adopted in the European Union. The case of ELA provision by the ECB and the Central Bank of Cyprus to Marfin-Laiki Bank during the crisis, however, suggests that the existence of rules and boundaries may not be enough to limit harmful discretion. During a crisis, novel interpretations of the legal authority of the central bank may be introduced to create a grey area that might be exploited to justify harmful discretionary decisions even in the presence of rules and boundaries. This raises the question how to ensure that rules and boundaries are respected in practice.     

Revising the European Central Bank’s fiscal rules to support growth and employment

Abstract

The paper presents a reform proposal for the operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) whose purpose is to create a common set of risk-free assets for financial institutions operating in the euro area (EA), which is the necessary condition for having a single internal financial market. The proposal does not require the introduction of changes in the existing European Union treaties. The effects of this reform on the debt dynamic of EA member countries permit a revision of the existing fiscal rules. With the help of some simulations, it is shown that maintaining compliance with the European treaties, the reform of the ECB operations and revised fiscal rules would transform the current fiscal deflationary stance into a reflationary one. Some implications for aggregate demand and growth for the EA are briefly discussed.     

Would helicopter money be spent? New evidence for the Netherlands

According to some economists, central banks should use ‘helicopter money’ to boost inflation (expectations). Based on a survey among Dutch households, we examine whether respondents would spend the money received via such a transfer. Our results show that respondents expect to spend about 30% of the transfer and that helicopter money would hardly affect inflation expectations. Furthermore, whether transfers come from the central bank or the government makes no difference. Finally, our results suggest that the effect of helicopter money on public trust in the ECB is ambiguous.     

What is on the ECB’s mind? Monetary policy before and after the global financial crisis

This paper analyzes the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. In the literature, researchers typically select one Taylor rule-based model to analyze monetary policy of central banks and to derive determinants for the interest rate setting. However, uncertainty about the choice of this respective model is typically neglected. In contrast, we apply a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to extend the Taylor rule to account for model uncertainty driven by heterogeneity in the ECB’s decision-making body, the Governing Council. Our results suggest the following: First, the ECB focuses on the inflation rate when setting interest rates. Second, economic activity indicators were in the focus of the ECB before the financial crisis. Third, over the last decade, the role of economic activity decreased, indicating that inflation is the main driver of monetary policy decisions in the post-crisis period. Fourth, when setting interest rates, central bankers appear to consider more than one model.     

The good,the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mortgages. In contrast to the popular stock delinquency approach, this model provides estimates of default and cure flows: a requirement of the stress test approach adopted by the European Central Bank's comprehensive assessment. In addition, both default and cure transitions are modelled as functions of micro- and macro-covariates including loan characteristics and current macroeconomic conditions such as house prices and unemployment. When comparing the competing equity and affordability effects, labour market deterioration played a stronger role than house equity in the rise of Irish default rates. For cures, a scarring effect of default is identified and estimated with the probability of a loan returning to performing reducing by almost four per cent each month a loan remains delinquent.     

Stress tests and asset quality reviews of banks: A policy announcement tool

It is common in the supervision of banks to perform and disclose a simultaneous standardized assessment of their asset quality, organizational effectiveness, strategic viability and resilience to financial turmoil. By investigating the European Central Bank 2014 Comprehensive Assessment and the stock reactions of the banks to its findings, we find that this process provides limited assistance to the market in sorting good from troubled banks. Notwithstanding, the market adjusts to these findings, since it understands that they signal the stance of supervisory policy toward banking activities, which begets the level of regulatory risk and cost for the supervised banks.     

Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication

We develop a field-specific dictionary to measure the stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy (dovish, neutral, hawkish) and the state of the Eurozone economy (positive, neutral, negative) through the content of ECB press conferences. In contrast with traditional textual analysis, we propose a novel approach using term-weighting and contiguous sequence of words (n-grams) to better capture the subtlety of central bank communication. We find that quantifying ECB communication using our field-specific weighted lexicon helps to explain future ECB monetary decisions when considering an augmented Taylor rule. Regarding European stock market volatility, we find that markets are more (less) volatile on the day following a conference with a negative (positive) tone about the euro area economic outlook. Our indicators significantly outperform a textual classification based on the Loughran–McDonald or Apel–Blix Grimaldi dictionaries and a media-based measure of economic policy uncertainty.     

Princes and Paupers: Network Ties and Financial Contributions Among Nonprofit Arts Organizations

ABSTRACT

In the United States, nonprofit organizations are the primary vehicle through which wealthy patrons nurture arts and culture. They provide support for theatres, orchestras, operas, and ballet troupes of all sizes, as well as museums, galleries, zoos, and public radio and television stations. The survival of this subsector is dependent on the ability of individuals and foundations to raise and funnel money to the almost 7,000 nonprofit arts and cultural organizations in the United States. Nonprofit arts organizations have historically fared well during periods of financial constraint, in part because they have not depended heavily upon government subsidies. But another explanation for this stable funding picture may be the networks of overlapping board member and interpersonal ties of collegiality and friendship which characterizes the world of nonprofit arts organizations.

We began our research with the idea that network position, particularly as measured by network centrality, is an important resource for nonprofit arts organizations. We hypothesized that the more central an arts organization is in the entire network of for-profit and nonprofit arts organizations in the community, the greater will be the level of support it can generate from local donors. We also hypothesized that the more wealthy a nonprofit arts organization, the more central it is likely to be in the entire network of for-profit and nonprofit organizations.

Using an extensive database of almost 3,000 directors in the Louisville, Kentucky area, and special computer-based network analysis software packages, we were able to calculate the precise centralities of local arts organizations within a network of 149 organizations, corporations, and umbrella funding agencies. In order to determine the local financial support, we collected the 1990 IRS (Internal Revenue Service) Form 990 returns for nineteen of the twenty-five organizations (76%) we identified as active in the Louisville area. After determining organizational centrality, we did a bi-variate analysis between the centrality of an individual arts organization and total organizational wealth. What we found was that centrality is strongly associated with level of contributions and weakly associated with overall wealth. We believe that nonprofit arts organizations can take deliberate steps to maximize this resource by being aware of the other organizational (and social) ties of prospective directors.     

Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?

This paper examines inflation indicators for the euro area by studying the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates, using data spanning 1980–2001. The central finding is that both the output gap and the real money gap (the difference between the real money stock and the long-run equilibrium real money stock) contain considerable information regarding future inflation. In contrast, the Eurosystem's money-growth indicator (the difference between nominal money growth and a reference value), the prominent “first pillar” in its monetary strategy, contains little information about future inflation, and no information beyond that contained in the output and real money gaps. The predictive performance of the output gap has improved compared to that in a previous version of this paper, most likely because of better estimation methods.