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1.
We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition. 相似文献
2.
立足政府需要,从侧面对当前政府职能转变过程进行分析和探讨,希望以政府本身作为理性实体的运作为基础,对该问题进行解释。 相似文献
3.
Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one. 相似文献
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5.
Elsebeth Holmen Author Vitae Ann-Charlott Pedersen Author Vitae 《Industrial Marketing Management》2003,32(5):409-418
How does a firm keep on being valuable in a network? One requirement is that the firm has a sufficient overview of the network and its dynamics. In other words, a firm's strategy depends on the firm's overview of the network—its network horizon. How comprehensive or limited should its network horizon be? Is it necessary to know the network beyond the direct counterparts? Such issues have not received much attention. In this article, we discuss network horizons and argue that limited network horizons are both inevitable and useful. However, such myopia requires that a firm's counterparts effectively and efficiently mediate between the firm and the rest of the network. Based on a case study, we introduce and discuss three mediating functions of counterparts: a joining, a relating, and an insulating function, and we claim that in order to support a firm's strategizing, managers need to analyze and influence counterparts' mediating functions and thereby the firm's network horizon. 相似文献
6.
完善城市整体功能是旧城改造的方向 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
城市的更新、改造是社会发展的必然 ,如何通过现状调查、分析、研讨 ,找出城市建设的症结 ,使城市趋于完美是城市建设者的历史使命。但现实中 ,片面追求经济效益 ,发旧城改造之财 ,只能使城市变成“崭新的旧城” ,只有按城市发展的固有规律去完善城市的整体功能才是旧城改造的发展方向。 相似文献
7.
A social choice rule (SCR) is a collection of social choice correspondences, one for each agenda. An effectivity rule is a collection of effectivity functions, one for each agenda. We prove that every monotonic and superadditive effectivity rule is the effectivity rule of some SCR. A SCR is binary if it is rationalized by an acyclic binary relation. The foregoing result motivates our definition of a binary effectivity rule as the effectivity rule of some binary SCR. A binary SCR is regular if it satisfies unanimity, monotonicity, and independence of infeasible alternatives. A binary effectivity rule is regular if it is the effectivity rule of some regular binary SCR. We characterize completely the family of regular binary effectivity rules. Quite surprisingly, intrinsically defined von Neumann–Morgenstern solutions play an important role in this characterization. 相似文献
8.
讨论了经济发展、社会发展和可持续发展的关系,提出北京应在内容上丰富政治功能,在地域上分散经济功能,在制度建设和管理上强化社会功能,在市政基础设施建设上增强生态功能. 相似文献
9.
旅游项目风险因素分析的生态系统观点 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
旅游业是一个关联度大、相关带动性强的经济性产业,因此其风险因素众多.从创新生态系统视角-对旅游项目的风险因素进行分析,可以将这些风险因素分为三类,项目自身风险、项目依赖风险和资源整合风险. 相似文献
10.
本文对风险度量的新进展进行了讨论,介绍了一些当前流行的风险度量工具,并从失真函数的角度考察风险度量,指出它们和传统方法的区别,同时对动态风险度量方法也进行了总结。 相似文献