区域一体化有利于减排吗？

将环境污染视作非期望产出,在一个拓展的增长收敛框架下讨论了区域一体化的环境效应及其理论机制。基于2003-2014年长三角城市群和珠三角城市群的数据,构建了一个测度区域一体化的新方法,运用工具变量法和双重差分法估计了跨省城市一体化和省内城市一体化对污染排放强度收敛的影响。实证结果显示:区域一体化显著促进了城市间污染排放强度的收敛并有利于减排,且近年来这种减排效应愈明显。污染排放强度呈现出条件收敛特征,经济增长收敛是污染排放收敛的重要原因。中国应利用好区域一体化促进地区协调发展和减排的双重政策红利,进一步促进区域一体化和同城化,大力发展城市群经济,构建城市间共生互利的发展格局,实现共同减排。     

Voluntary carbon offsetting: Who does it?

Voluntary carbon offsetting was popularised during the last decade, particularly by airlines, as a tool to ‘neutralise’ emissions associated with travel. Although there is a wide range of carbon offsetting schemes for tourism, the uptake of these programs has been reportedly low. Regardless, little research has explored the visitor segments who voluntarily undertake carbon offsetting. Consequently, this research investigates the prevalence of carbon offsetting amongst international tourists to Australia between 2008 and 2010 and, using cluster analysis, segments the carbon offsetters into three distinct markets. Findings reveal a stable carbon offsetting market, despite a Global Financial Crisis occurring during the reference period. Further, travellers from the United Kingdom/Europe were more likely to carbon offset, while those from Asia were less likely to participate in the schemes. Thus, this could indicate that the social marketing, public discourse and substantial media coverage in the United Kingdom/Europe had enhanced climate change mitigation behaviours.     

Firm behaviour under pollution ratio standards with non-compliance

This paper compares a firm’s short run optimal production and abatement rules under emission level standards and standards expressed in terms of emissions per unit of output (ratio standards). The models allow for non-compliance with standards, with expected penalties dependant on either level or relative violations of the standard in question. It is shown that ratio arguments make a difference to the optimal decision rules derived for a profit-maximising firm. For example, for a given level of emissions the firm both produces more, and abates more, under a ratio standard, so that ratio and level standards cannot be used interchangeably to achieve the same combination of emissions and output. The implications for the efficiency of pollution control are briefly discussed.

国际碳排放权交易价格决定与最优出口规模研究

本文分析了总量控制和交易、基准排放和信用两种碳排放权交易体系中的价格决定原理,并以边际减排成本等于市场均衡价格为基础,分析《京都议定书》框架下国际碳排放权交易规模和利益分配不公等情况;然后构建两阶段模型,讨论“非附件B国家”碳排放权出口规模的决定因素及其影响效应,并通过估测中国碳排放权出口规模决定因素的函数值或参数值,计算中国第1承诺期的最优出口量;最后提出中国参与国际碳排放权交易的政策建议。     

Not seeing the carbon for the trees? Why area-based targets for establishing new woodlands can limit or underplay their climate change mitigation benefits

Area-based targets for afforestation are a frequent and prominent component of policy discourses on forestry, land use and climate change emissions abatement. Such targets imply an expected contribution of afforestation to the net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, yet the nature of afforestation undertaken and its geographical distribution means that there is considerable uncertainty over the eventual emission reductions outcomes. This uncertainty is reduced if the net carbon balance is calculated for all potential afforestation sites, considering climate, soil characteristics and the possible types of afforestation (species and management regimes). To quantify the range of possible emissions outcomes for area-based afforestation targets, a new spatial analysis method was implemented. This improved the integration of spatial data on antecedent land use with mapped outputs from forest models defining the suitability and productivity of eleven forestry management alternatives. This above ground carbon data was then integrated with outputs from the ECOSSE (Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils – Sequestration and Emissions) model which simulates the soil carbon dynamics. The maps and other model output visualisations combining above and below ground carbon highlight where net carbon surpluses and deficits are likely to occur, how long they persist after afforestation and their relationships with antecedent land use, soils, weather conditions and afforestation management strategies. Using more productive land classes delivers more net sequestration per hectare and could mean greater carbon storage than anticipated by emissions reduction plans. Extensive establishment of lower yielding trees on low-quality ground, with organo-mineral soils could, though, result in net emissions that persist for decades. From the spatial analysis, the range of possible outcomes for any target area of planting is substantial, meaning that outcomes are highly sensitive to policy and implementation decisions on the mix of forestry systems preferred and to spatial targeting or exclusions (both at regional and local scales). The paper highlights the importance of retaining the existing presumption against planting of deep peat areas, but also that additional incentives or constraints may be needed to achieve the aggregate rates of emission mitigation implied by policy commitments. Supplementary carbon storage tonnage targets for new forestry would introduce a floor for carbon sequestration outcomes, but would still allow for flexibility in achieving an appropriate balance in the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and the many other objectives that new woodlands are expected to deliver.     

中国对美出口贸易中的隐含碳排放——基于出口排名前十位货物的比较分析

通过利用EIO-LCA软件,我们对中国出口美国前十位货物的隐含碳进行分部门计算。结果认为:中国出口美国前十位货物的隐含碳总量约占总出口的75%以上.其中,隐含碳排放量较高的出口主要是:办公室机器和自动资料处理仪器、杂项制品、电信和录音及音响设备和仪器等三类产品;较低的主要集中于以提供生活消费品和制作手工工具为主的轻纺工业。     

Changing the rules of the game: Business responses to new regulation

This study investigates business responses to new regulation by focusing on the rearrangement of interactions in business relationships involving ‘NRG’, a large multinational energy company in the aviation industry. ‘NRG’ is confronted with new environmental rules resulting from the inclusion of the aviation industry in the European Emissions Trading Scheme as of 2012. We demonstrate that business actors do not simply comply with the rules of the game; instead they elaborate responses which impact on the creation of new rules. We argue that research on business responses to new regulation is highly relevant to industrial marketing because the increasing complexity of regulation in many industrial markets provides significant opportunities and threats to businesses. We propose three guiding principles which could be used by managers in understanding, influencing and responding to new regulation.     

人口规模、经济增长与碳排放:经验证据及国际比较

根据国际能源署（IEA）公布的1971—2008年碳排放数据,探讨中国与典型发达国家、发展中国家（G8＋5）人口规模、经济增长与碳排放变化的差异性。结果表明：随着GDP增长,中国碳排放快速增长,人均碳排放已超过世界平均水平;单位GDP碳排放持续降低,但依然高于世界平均水平。利用秩相关系数检验人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放,发现7个发达国家均呈显著下降趋势,发展中国家南非、中国呈显著下降趋势,巴西、印度、墨西哥呈上升趋势但并不显著;人均GDP与人均碳排放秩相关系数表明,7个发达国家中,美国、法国、德国、英国呈显著下降趋势,加拿大呈不显著上升趋势,日本、意大利呈显著上升趋势;5个发展中国家处于工业化快速发展阶段,能源消费急剧增加,随着人均GDP增长,人均碳排放均呈显著上升趋势。基于此,归纳出世界主要发达国家和发展中国家人口增长、经济增长与碳排放变动的三种模式。     

我国CO2排放、能源消耗、经济增长和外贸依存度之间的关系——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

本文利用我国1971—2008年的样本数据,运用自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）对我国的二氧化碳排放、能源消费、人均国民总收入、人均国民总收入的平方和外贸依存度之间的动态关系进行了计量研究。结果表明它们之间存在长期的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验表明,能源消费对二氧化碳排放同时存在长期和短期的因果关系。ARDL估计结果表明,人均能源消费量对二氧化碳排放量解释力度最大,其次是人均国民总收入和对外贸易,并且推导出了一个持续增长的二氧化碳排放模型,同时给出一些政策建议。     

Assessing multi-dimensional performance: environmental and economic outcomes

This study examines economic performance, environmental performance, and regulatory activity for plants in three industries: pulp and paper, oil, and steel. Stochastic frontier production function models show significant deviations from production efficiency. Older plants are less efficient in production, but perform no worse on emissions. Plants spending more on pollution abatement tend to do worse on both production efficiency and emissions. Stricter local regulatory pressure is associated with somewhat lower emissions, but has mixed effects on production efficiency. Positive correlations between SUR residuals for emissions and production efficiency suggest unmeasured plant-level characteristics that drive both economic and environmental performance.