Comparing the accuracy of several network-based COVID-19 prediction algorithms

Researchers from various scientific disciplines have attempted to forecast the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The proposed epidemic prediction methods range from basic curve fitting methods and traffic interaction models to machine-learning approaches. If we combine all these approaches, we obtain the Network Inference-based Prediction Algorithm (NIPA). In this paper, we analyse a diverse set of COVID-19 forecast algorithms, including several modifications of NIPA. Among the algorithms that we evaluated, the original NIPA performed best at forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei, China and in the Netherlands. In particular, we show that network-based forecasting is superior to any other forecasting algorithm.     

石棉类物质的危害及其监管

以石棉类物质的危害及其监管现状为主题，首先整理分析了石棉的基本危害，及其在职业人群和普通人群中的病理学研究进展；再从监管的角度出发，总结归纳了世界各国的石棉监管政策及限量要求；在此基础上，对石棉类物质的防控措施进行综述。     

The burden of immune thrombocytopenia in adults: Evaluation of the thrombopoietin receptor agonist romiplostim

Abstract

Background:

Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a chronic, immune-mediated disease characterized by a transient or long-lasting decrease in platelet counts. ITP is associated with numerous serious clinical consequences. Discussed here are clinical aspects of ITP, the humanistic and economic burden of ITP, and current treatment options with a focus on romiplostim, a thrombopoietin (TPO) receptor agonist. The aim of this review is to provide decision-makers with the background information necessary to evaluate the value of romiplostim.

Scope:

PubMed was searched for relevant, English-language papers published from January 2006 through November 2011 relating to the epidemiology and treatment options of chronic ITP, and, focusing on the TPO mimetic romiplostim, patient-reported outcomes (PRO) and economic burden. Recent select conference abstracts were also reviewed.

Findings:

The initial clinical management of ITP (e.g., corticosteroids, immunoglobulins) is often associated with adverse events and recommended for short-term use only. Splenectomy, a potentially curative second-line treatment, is associated with increased risks of bleeding and infection, and patients often require additional long-term drug intervention. ITP and its sequelae are associated with a substantial burden on patients’ health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and increased medical costs. Use of TPO receptor agonists in ITP patients may represent a more efficient use of healthcare resources than existing therapies.

Conclusion:

While this literature review is not a systematic review, e.g., it considers only approved therapies and published literature written in English, it provides a comprehensive overview of the clinical, humanistic, and economic factors that should be considered in treating ITP, particularly with new agents such as romiplostim. Among the limited number of safe and effective therapies currently available for chronic ITP, highly effective and well-tolerated medications such as romiplostim may reduce the healthcare resource utilization associated with ITP while improving patients’ HRQoL.     

Scope and patterns of tourist injuries in the European Union

European Union (EU) countries are among the leading tourist destinations in the world. Despite growing consumer demands on the safety of travelling, injuries amongst tourists remain an essentially invisible problem. Unique national and regional data sources are the only means by which the important negative impact of injuries on the health of non-domestic tourists in the EU-15 is underlined. With an estimated number of 3800 tourists dying each year, injuries account for up to 30% of fatalities during vacation. This toll reflects an increased risk of mortality in tourists compared to the domestic population. Amendments to national and EU health and injury monitoring are suggested in order to enable authorities to examine personal risks to travellers in more detail.     

女性罪犯精神分裂症流行病学调查

目的了解监狱女性罪犯精神分裂症的患病率和分布特点,探讨可能影响的因素。方法采用横断面普查方法,选取2010年8月至11月广西某监狱在押女性罪犯2186例为调查对象,采用扩展的一般健康问卷(GHQ-12)、精神障碍8项高位因素筛查表和编制的罪犯精神疾病线索调查表进行筛查,将调查对象分为高、中、低危险组,采用美《DSM-Ⅳ-TR轴Ⅰ障碍定式临床检查病人版》(SCID-I/P)对调查对象进行精神分裂症的诊断。结果诊断精神分裂症终生患病34例,终生患病率为1.56%,现患28例,时点患病率为1.28%。结论在女性罪犯中,精神分裂症患者的管理、治疗是监狱的突出问题,其解决办法对保证监狱监管安全尤为重要。     

Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic

We have been publishing real-time forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) since mid-March 2020 (published at www.doornik.com/COVID-19). These forecasts are short-term statistical extrapolations of past and current data. They assume that the underlying trend is informative regarding short-term developments but without requiring other assumptions about how the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is spreading, or whether preventative policies are effective. Thus, they are complementary to the forecasts obtained from epidemiological models.The forecasts are based on extracting trends from windows of data using machine learning and then computing the forecasts by applying some constraints to the flexible extracted trend. These methods have been applied previously to various other time series data and they performed well. They have also proved effective in the COVID-19 setting where they provided better forecasts than some epidemiological models in the earlier stages of the pandemic.     

Infectious diseases and economic growth

This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a neo-classical growth model. There is a two way interaction between the economy and the disease: the incidence of the disease affects labor supply, and investment in health capital can affect the incidence and recuperation from the disease. Thus, both the disease incidence and the income levels are endogenous. The disease dynamics make the control problem non-convex thus usual optimal control results do not apply. We establish existence of an optimal solution, continuity of state variables, show directly that the Hamiltonian inequality holds thus establishing optimality of interior paths that satisfy necessary conditions, and of the steady states. There are multiple steady states and the local dynamics of the model are fully characterized. A disease-free steady state always exists, but it could be unstable. A disease-endemic steady state may exist, in which the optimal health expenditure can be positive or zero depending on the parameters of the model. The interaction of the disease and economic variables is non-linear and can be non-monotonic.     

Irritable bowel syndrome with constipation: a European-focused systematic literature review of disease burden

Abstract

Objective:

To conduct a systematic literature review to assess burden of disease and unmet medical needs in patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) with constipation (IBS-C), with a focus on five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK).

Methods:

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature searches were carried out using terms for IBS and constipation, to identify studies reporting epidemiological, clinical, humanistic, or economic outcomes for IBS-C, published between 2000 and 2010.

Results:

Searches identified 885 unique abstracts and 33 supplementary articles, of which 100 publications and six grey literature sources met the inclusion criteria. Among patients with IBS, the prevalence estimates of IBS-C ranged from 1 to 44%. Co-morbid conditions, such as personality traits, psychological distress, and stress, were common. Patients with IBS-C had lower health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) compared with the general population, and clinical trials suggested that effectively treating IBS-C improves HRQoL. The European societal cost of IBS-C is largely unknown, as no IBS-C-specific European cost-of-illness studies were identified. Two cost analyses demonstrated the substantial societal impact of IBS-C, including reduced productivity at work and work absenteeism. Guidelines offered similar recommendations for the diagnosis and management of IBS; however, recommendations specifically for IBS-C varied by country. Current IBS-C treatment options have limited efficacy and the risk:benefit profile of early 5-HT₄ agonists restricts clinical use.

Conclusions:

This systematic review indicates a clear need for European-focused IBS-C burden-of-disease and cost-of-illness studies to address identified evidence gaps. There is a need for new therapies for IBS-C that are effective, well tolerated, and have a positive impact on HRQoL.