Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample. Our results also reveal that statistical evidence of predictability does not necessarily lead to economic gains. However, a timing strategy based on the CRP leads to utility gains of more than 5.03% per annum. Forecast combinations provide stable forecasts for both excess returns and realized variance, and add economic value.     

Trade, foreign firms and economic policy in Indonesian and Thai manufacturing

This paper first examines the rapid growth and changing composition of manufactured exports in Indonesia and Thailand, highlighting the rapid growth of office and computer machinery and electric machinery, somewhat slower growth of non-electric and transportation machinery, as well as the low growth of previously large exports of textiles apparel. Second, the important contributions of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) to export growth in the machinery industries, particularly in electric, office, and computing machinery, are documented. Third, the paper describes trade policies in all these industries in some detail, emphasizing how low protection was a key facilitator of rapid export growth in the MNEs that dominated the electric, office, and computing machinery industry, while high protection reduced incentives to export among MNEs in the transportation machinery industry.     

论国企留住人才的有效措施

未来经济的竞争主要是科学技术与人才的竞争,而归根结底是人才的竞争。人才是当今以及未来时代竞争的焦点,如何吸引人才而避免人才的流失成为企业,尤其是国有企业所面临的最严峻的课题。根据国企人才流失的最主要原因和人才最看重的是个人发展空间和机会,从而为国企如何为人才提供个人发展空间和机会提出了一些对策和建议。     

Altruism, equity, and reciprocity in a gift-exchange experiment: an encompassing approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motives must be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recent theories of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as altruism-, equity-, or reciprocity-based. We outline the qualitative differences in prediction these alternative explanations yield in a gift-exchange game. We estimate and compare leading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. We then offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches, thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determining the relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition, the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we find that intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruistic considerations all play a significant role in players' decisions.     

Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle reconsidered

Benartzi and Thaler [The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1995) 73–92] offer a quasi-rational explanation for the equity premium puzzle. We reconsider their methodology and, making a simple modification to it, find that their analysis is not robust.     

产权观下我国企业会计目标构建问题研究

会计目标一直是西方会计界重点关注和研究的问题,近年来,我国会计理论界和实务界也对其投以越来越多的关注。本文试图从企业产权理论和制度变迁的角度,以利益相关者权益保护为主线研究会计目标,理清从受托责任观到决策有用观演进的必然性和合理性,并在分析英美、法德模式会计目标的差异后,结合当前我国会计准则国际趋同的背景,提出我国应确立以利益相关者权益保护为中心、以企业特征为导向、针对不同环境分别选择受托责任或决策有用为核心内容的会计目标构建思想。     

2005年国际金融市场回顾与2006年展望

2005年的国际金融市场走势跌宕起伏,股票市场表现不一,债券市场基本上是区间波动走势,外汇市场美元一枝独秀,石油价格冲高回落而黄金的表现也引人注目。决定市场走势的因素是美国经济表现稳健,欧、日经济相形见绌,同时美国利率持续上升。2006年受房地产市场降温的影响,美国经济可能温和放缓,利率很快见顶,将对金融市场产生重大影响,总体而言风险加大。     

从供需层面看中国第三方物流问题

随着中国经济的发展，提供第三方物流服务的物流公司纷纷涌现出来。同时，与第三方物流相关的一些问题也随之出现．针对这种情况．我们建立了第三方物流经济模型，从供需层面来分析中国第三方物流中存在的问题．找出问题存在的根本原因，并且对物流企业的建设提出一些建议和解决方案。     

计件工资博弈中管理者的守诺与公平权衡——对计件工资制不流行的再解释

本文首先回顾总结了计件工资制度的发展过程和存在的问题,指出计件工资博弈陷入低效僵局的原因在于管理者的不履行事先的承诺。传统的解释是管理者事后抵挡不住自利的诱惑,本文认为管理者守诺还是不守诺是在权衡计件工资员工和计时工资员工激励效果后作出的理性的选择。管理者守诺只在一定的情形下发生所以计件工资制不流行。