Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

基于FAHP太阳能发电设备制造企业技术创新能力评价模型

21世纪国家竞争力的核心和动力是国家科技竞争力,而形成国家科技竞争力的主体是企业技术创新能力。因而,评价和分析企业技术创新能力具有重要的理论和现实意义。对于新能源发电设备制造企业来说,技术创新能力是企业的核心竞争力。本文通过建立太阳能发电设备制造企业技术创新能力的评价指标,采用FAHP方法确定各个指标的权重,并利用加权模糊逻辑推理法建立综合评价模型。     

低碳经济评价指标体系的构建

低碳经济是一种以低能耗、低污染、低排放为基础的新的经济发展形态,是人与自然和谐发展的必然趋势。在阐述低碳经济的内涵和构成要素的基础上,选取了评价低碳经济发展水平的各个指标,构建低碳经济评价指标体系,运用模糊层次分析法(F-AHP)对低碳经济的发展水平进行量化评价研究,并在此基础上提出了我国在低碳经济发展进程中应转变经济发展模式、加大科技投入、调整能源消费结构、优化产业结构、开发碳汇潜力等建议措施。     

基于修正的模糊AHP方法的供应链协作伙伴评估选择

针对供应链管理中的协作伙伴选择问题,本文选用修正的模糊层次分析法进行评估决策。给出了该方法的具体描述,进行了具体的实例检验。力争为供应链管理中的协作伙伴选择问题提供新思路。