谈体育教学改革发展趋势

体育教学“以人为本”观念形成的社会环境是现代化发展的必然结果。我们教育改革思路提出“健康第一”的指导思想，同样验证了“以人为本”的现代体育观念的社会环境背景。学生对体育课的要求和看法将对体育教学改革提供“主体”依据，体育教学改革要“以人为本”。     

A note on “Bed allocation techniques based on census data”

Capacity planning and resource allocation are crucial to the cost-effective delivery of health care services. In this paper, we present an analytic approach based on a modified version of the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality forecasting model to determine the frequency distribution associated with a hospital care unit's census. This paper is a follow-up to the census frequency distribution simulation model described in Lapierre et al. (Socio Econ. Plan. Sci. 33 (1999) 25). We demonstrate that our model can provide census frequency distributions equivalent to the simulation model of Lapierre et al. [1], but without the computational effort common to simulation models.     

Medical insurance with rank-dependent utility

Summary. A well-known result in the medical insurance literature is that zero co-insurance is never second-best for insurance contracts subject to moral hazard. We replace the usual expected utility assumption with a version of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) model that has greater experimental support. When consumers exhibit such preferences, we show that zero co-insurance may in fact be optimal, especially for low-risk consumers. Indeed, it is even possible that the first-best and second-best contracts are identical. In this case, there is no “market failure”, despite the informational asymmetry. We argue that these RDU results are in better accord with the empirical evidence from US health insurance markets. Received: February 26, 2001; revised version: October 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The authors would particularly like to thank Simon Grant, John Quiggin, Peter Wakker and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions on earlier drafts. The paper has also benefitted from the input of seminar audiences at The Australian National University, University of Auckland, University of Melbourne and University of Sydney. Ryan also gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the ARC, through Grant number A000000055. Correspondence to:R. Vaithianathan     

Does the World Bank have any impact on human development of the poorest countries? Some preliminary evidence from Africa

In an attempt to better understand the impact of the World Bank on human development in poor countries, we use cross-country data on African countries for the 1990–2002 period to examine this relationship. The coefficient estimates of our parsimonious fixed-effects models indicate that while loans and grants of the Bank have had a positive impact on some relatively short-term indicators of health and education in an average African country, there is little evidence to suggest that such loans and grants have helped these countries to consolidate on the short-term gains.     

健康风险冲击对农户收入的影响

本文基于中国8个省份、1354个农户、跨度15年的微观面板数据,测算了大病冲击对于农户长期收入的影响以及健康风险冲击持续的时间。我们发现:(1)大病冲击在随后的12年里对于农户人均纯收入都有显著的负面影响;(2)大病冲击对于农户的短期与中期影响使得患病户人均纯收入平均降低5%—6%;(3)健康风险冲击的长期影响可持续大约15年,并且冲击对于中低收入农户的影响更为严重。     

Dissertation abstract: “Essays in applied economics on the intervention of a third player in agency relationships”

Agency theory has established that appropriate incentives can reconcile the diverging interests of the principal and the agent. Focusing on three applications, this dissertation evaluates the empirical relevance of these results when a third party interacts with the primary contract. The analyses provided rely on either laboratory or natural experiments. First, corruption is analyzed as a two-contract situation: a delegation contract between a Principal and an Agent and a corruption pact concluded between this Agent and a third player, called Briber. A survey of the recent microeconomic literature on corruption first highlights how corruption behavior results from the properties of those two agreements. We thereafter show that the Agent faces a conflict in reciprocities due to those two conflicting agreements. The resulting delegation effect, supported by observed behavior in our three-player experimental game, could account for the deterrence effect of wages on corruption. Second, health care is governed by contradictory objectives: patients are mainly concerned with the health provided, whereas containing health care costs is the primary goal of health care administrators. We provide further insights into the ability of incentives to balance these two competing objectives. In this matter, our theoretical and econometric analysis evaluates how a new mixed compensation scheme, introduced in Quebec in 1999 as an alternative to fee-for-services, has affected physicians’ practice patterns. Free switching is shown to be an essential feature of the reform, since it implements screening between physicians. Finally, the demand for underground work departs from the traditional Beckerian approach to illegal behavior, due to the dependence of benefits from illegality on competitors’ behavior. We set up a theoretical model in which the demand for underground work from all producers competing on the same output market is analyzed simultaneously. We first show that competition drastically undermines the individual benefits of tax evasion. At equilibrium, each firm nonetheless chooses evasion with a positive probability, strictly lower than one. This Bertrand curse could then account for the “tax evasion puzzle” i.e. the overprediction of evasion in models that ignore market interactions. We thereafter show that allowing firms to denounce competitors’ evasion is not likely to solve this curse—by providing a credible threat against price cuts, it fosters illegal work. Empirical evidence from a laboratory experiment confirms these predictions. Without denunciation, experimental firms often choose evasion whereas evasion benefits are canceled out by competition. When introduced, denunciation is rarely used by firms, but the threat makes evasion profitable. JEL Classification K42, I18, D21, C25, C91     

非农就业、母亲照料与儿童健康——来自中国乡村的证据

中国农村女性参与非农就业的比例显著提高,对于增进家庭收入、减少贫困起到了积极的作用。但从女性在家庭中的双重身份——挣取收入者和照看孩子的主要人员出发,其劳动模式和供给行为的改变对于下一代福利的影响和人力资本的积累所起到的作用却是不确定的。本文通过将农村地区妇女的劳动供给状况进行区分,就其劳动参与行为对孩童健康状况的影响进行了探讨。在控制其他因素的情况下,母亲额外单位的劳动时间的增加对孩子的健康状况具有显著的负向影响,且同样的母亲非农劳动时间的增加对于孩童健康的负面影响大于农业劳动时间增加的影响程度,而母亲收入增加对孩子健康状况具有显著的正向影响;边际效果分析表明母亲收入增加对孩子健康的正向影响难以抵销劳动时间增加所带来的负面效果。孩子性别不同所受到的影响亦不同,女童相对而言处于健康的劣势地位。虽然母亲的劳动供给有助于缩小孩子营养状况的性别差距,但却是以所有儿童的健康状况下降为代价的。研究结果预期具有较强的政策含义。     

中国区际公共卫生服务水平差异的变化:运用泰尔指数的测度方法

缩小因地区差异导致的公共卫生服务水平差距,对我国统筹区域社会经济发展、构建和谐社会具有重要意义.基于我国地区间公共卫生服务差异化的现实,本文运用泰尔指数对中国公共卫生服务水平的均等化问题进行了实证分析,结果表明三大区域虽然非均等化在不同程度上存在,但近几年地区之间的差异总体上有所缩小.并提出了新时期我国公共卫生服务均等化和财政体制改革的建议,为构建公共卫生资源在地区间的和谐分配、推进公共卫生服务均等化战略提供一个理论和政策的有力支撑.     

Understanding on-the-go consumption: A retail mix perspective

On-the-go (OTG) consumption is a growing phenomenon in the food and beverage industry. Drawing on the theory of consumption values, this study is conducted to acquire a better understanding of the influence that retail-mix elements have on OTG consumption outcomes. Specifically, this study examines the role of value for money, customer service, general assortments and healthy assortments in driving intention and satisfaction related to OTG consumption. The study also assesses the conditional value generated by the consumer's health orientation, impulsiveness and perceived time pressure. Based on a sample of 433 OTG consumers, and applying multi-group structural equation modelling (SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), value for money was identified as the key driver of OTG consumption outcomes. Impulsiveness and time pressure are shown to increase the effects of value for money perceptions on OTG consumption intention, while health orientation enhances the relationship between customer service and satisfaction. This study contributes to the literature on OTG consumption, explains the managerial implications for retailers, and offers recommendations to target OTG consumers better.     

HOW TO MEASURE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VECTOR‐BORNE DISEASES AT COUNTRY LEVEL

Vector‐borne diseases (VBDs) are widespread in less developed countries and reemerging in developed ones. Available economic studies agree that VBDs have significant effects on countries' economic outcomes, and affirm that a systematic evaluation of such effects is crucial for the efficient allocation of resources to health‐related priorities. This paper provides a comparative assessment of available methodologies for measuring the economic impact of VBDs at national level. We review both macroeconometric and micro‐based approaches, and examine advantages and disadvantages of current methods. We conclude by suggesting possible areas for future research.