What Prompts the People＇s Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance？ Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.     

The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one.     

Use of minimum risk approach in the estimation of regression models with missing observations

This article considers a linear regression model with some missing observations on the response variable and presents two estimators of regression coefficients employing the approach of minimum risk estimation. Small disturbance asymptotic properties of these estimators along with the traditional unbiased estimator are analyzed and conditions, that are easy to check in practice, for the superiority of one estimator over the other are derived. Received May 2001     

提高企业对外部环境适应能力的策略分析

企业的发展离不开外部环境,适者生存是企业发展的必然规律。因此,如何适应外部环境的变化并做出应有的响应,是企业发展过程中面临的重要课题,本文在提高企业对外部环境的适应能力方面进行了初步的探讨。     

A two-stage stratified Warner’s randomized response model using optimal allocation

This paper applies Kim and Wardes (2004) stratified Warners randomized response model to Mangat and Singhs (1990) two-stage randomized response model. The proposed stratified randomized response model has an optimal allocation and a large gain in precision. Hence, the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than Kim and Wardes (2004) and Mangat and Singhs (1990) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

中国股市波动与经济波动的传递性研究

基于1994~2004年度的月份数据,对股市波动与经济波动的关系进行研究。我们采用Schwert(1989)的12阶自回归模型对各经济变量序列的波动性进行估计,并进一步通过Granger因果检验和冲击反应函数考察各波动序列之间的内在关系。检验结果表明:在Granger因果检定中,股市波动并未受到总体经济波动的影响,说明股市在一定程度上反映了当前的经济信息;股市波动与经济波动的冲击反应函数则显示,股市波动与经济波动之间的影响大体在6~8个月以内传递完毕。     

The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?

The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001     

替代产品投放策略与竞争性反应研究

本文首先介绍了产品替代理论，然后回顾了新产品投放及竞争者的反应方面的相关理论研究，在投放策略与反应之间引入信号的概念：根据已有文献研究总结得出企业感知信号的不同类型与其做出竞争性反应的关系。     

论废弃产品问题与生产者责任延伸制度的回应

产品在消费后阶段所凸显的环境污染与资源浪费问题,即废弃产品问题,源于产品的资源性和潜在污染性,自然处置方式的不能和焚烧、填埋处置方式的不当。生产者责任延伸制度概念的提出为废弃产品问题的解决找到了合理的责任承担主体,减轻了政府在此方面的责任,为通过立法建立具体的生产者责任延伸制度提供了雏形。建立生产者责任延伸制度,施行回收处置方式是破解废弃产品问题的制度回应。     

投资与通货膨胀-紧缩的联系:来自中国的经验证据

基于Toda-Yamamoto长期因果检验程序和广义脉冲反应技术,本文首先研究了全社会实际固定资产投资与零售价格水平变动之间的长期因果及其冲击-动态反应关系,然后进一步考察了货币供给量M1和贸易依存度在促成上述关系中所扮演的角色.其研究结论为:(1)货币供给量M1是唯一的外生变量,其增长不是价格水平变动的直接因,而是通过全社会实际固定资产投资间接地成为价格水平变动的因;(2)贸易依存度和全社会实际固定资产投资之间存在双向因果联系,前者只能通过后者间接地成为价格水平变动的因;(3)中国对外开放既消化又强化了中国生产能力过剩,但消化胜于强化;(4)投资一个单位正向冲击在开始的2-4年左右导致相对温和的通货膨胀,但后五年左右将导致相对严重的通货紧缩.