地区产业结构、能源消费与经济增长关系研究

为了探讨地区经济增长与产业结构、能源消费的关系,本文以广东顺德2005—2012年数据为例,利用灰色关联模型对三者进行动态关联分析。结果表明,能源消费总量的快速增长是导致顺德经济增长的主要原因,其次是第二产业占国民经济比值。因此,要加快地区经济的发展,必须率先从改善能源利用效率和调整产业升级开始,大力发展绿色经济,形成合理的能源消费结构,加大可再生能源的开发力度。     

The covariates of regularity in purchase timing

An examination of the timing of consumers' purchases for coffee reveals that consumers vary a great deal in terms of the regularity of their purchasing behavior. Some consumers make purchases at seemingly random time intervals, while others purchase at highly regular intervals. The measurement of regularity in purchase timing, as well as the identification of its covariates, is important in many contexts such as modeling purchase incidence and sales forecasting. We measure the degree of regularity among a sample of coffee purchasers and identify several consumer characteristics that vary with the degree of regularity in purchase timing. Results show that regularity in purchase timing is related to brand loyalty, store loyalty and deal proneness, as well as to certain pattern of routinization by the households, and that regularity may be used, along with other aspects of purchase behavior, to provide a basis for market segmentation.The authors wish to acknowledge the support of Information Resources Inc. for providing the data, and are grateful to Professor Jane T. Landwehr, University of Delaware, for her help.     

谁从增加的财政转移支付中受益——基于中国县级数据的实证分析

基本公共服务均等化要求财政转移支付应有效保障贫困地区提供大致均等化公共服务的财政能力。本文运用边际受益归宿分析技术,实证评估了2003—2007年中国县(市)一级财政转移支付资金的边际受益分配状况。研究结果显示:贫困县(市)从增加的一般转移支付补助中受益更高;对于调整工资补助和农村税费改革补助,富裕县(市)是新增财政转移支付资金的最大受益者;专项转移支付增量资金的受益分配也存在配置失效问题。基于实证分析结论,我们的政策建议是:提升一般性转移支付补助在财政转移支付资金中的占比;制定更加"亲穷"的一般性财力转移支付制度,增强其均等化功能;规范专项转移支付分配机制。     

如何降低科技行政审批腐败发生率——模型、机理与实现路径

科技行政审批在缺乏有效的制度约束下，极易引发腐败行为。通过构建科技行政审批与腐败发生率关联机理模型，经过相关性分析、内在一致性与EFA检验以及二阶验证性因素分析，拟合出结构方程模型路径系数。结果显示，市场激励型科技行政审批能够直接影响腐败发生率，命令控制型科技行政审批与市场激励型科技行政审批都可以通过科技行政审批人员滋生消极腐败的公共服务动机进而产生腐败行为，市场化程度提升带来的外在影响相对于内在公共服务动机变异对于腐败发生率增加的影响表现得更加显著。因此，针对不同类型科技行政审批，可实施差异化腐败预防控制机制，转变审批人员公共服务动机，阻断腐败发生的中介，深化科技行政审批制度改革，推进审批制度化、标准化、规范化建设，精简优化科技行政审批流程，提高审批集约化程度，以效能提升倒逼腐败发生率下降。     

中国企业所得税税负的动态分布

运用宏观经济学中考虑储蓄变化的经济增长模型,研究在生产要素供给发生变化的长期情况下,我国企业所得税税负的动态分布。储蓄行为在经济增长情况下影响资本所得税税负的长期分布．将储蓄倾向划分为资本收入的储蓄倾向和劳动收入的储蓄倾向,用可变储蓄率的经济增长模型代替以往资本供给固定的情况,通过资本的损失与国民收入总损失的比例来计算资本承担的税负。运用我国现实数据测定模型中的参数,通过模拟实证分析得出结论,长期来看．我国资本只承担了企业所得税税收负担的大约60％,而把另外40％左右转嫁给劳动要素承担。     

Intervening with victims of intimate partner violence

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a critically important public health problem. Physicians and other health care providers have a unique opportunity to help IPV victims, not only in treatment but in prevention of this devastating problem. Health-care providers should receive thorough and on-going training and administrative support for identifying, appropriately treating, and referring IPV victims to IPV advocates and other community-based resources with whom the provider has developed a close working relationship. In the clinical setting, health-care providers may intervene early as the victim’s first and only point of contact concerning the violence in their lives. In the larger community, health-care providers can become spokespersons and educators to help change social norms and can get involved in coordinated community responses to ensure cohesive actions by all societal sectors to prevent IPV in their communities.     

两税合并的要素收入份额影响研究

实证研究发现,基于合理的参数,两税合并的实施有利于降低劳动要素对企业所得税的实际负担率,无论是将房地产、租赁和商务服务业划入外商投资比例较高的部门还是外商投资比例较低的部门.在两种不同分类法下,劳动要素的企业所得税实际负担率比上年下降了0.36和0.33个百分点,降幅达到3.20%和2.56%.结束对外资的“超国民待遇”,促进了企业间的公平竞争,降低了内资的市场进入成本,有利于改善劳动要素在国民收入再分配过程中的地位     

Incidence and characteristics of unintentional injuries among children in a resource limited setting in Kampala,Uganda

ABSTRACT

Given that little is known about the epidemiology of unintentional injuries in children in low-income countries, this study sought to determine the incidence and characteristics of unintentional injuries among children aged ≤18 years in a slum community in Uganda. From a household survey, the incidence and odds ratios for factors associated with unintentional injury characteristics were calculated. Of 1583 children, 706 had suffered 787 unintentional injuries yielding an annual incidence rate of 497 injuries per 1000 children. Commonest injuries were cuts, bites or open wounds (30.6%) and bruises or superficial injuries (28.6%) with majority (75.5%) occurring at home. Boys were more likely to be injured at school (AOR 4.34; 95% CI 1.22–15.54) and to be injured from falls (AOR 1.41; 95% CI 1.01–1.96). Older children (12–18 years) were more likely to suffer from fractures (AOR 2.37; 95% CI 1.26–4.43), concussions and organ system injuries (AOR 3.58; 95% CI 1.03–12.39) and cuts, bites or open wounds (AOR 2.05; 95% CI 1.21–3.48). Older children were less likely to suffer burns or scalds as compared to the young children (AOR: 0.23; 95% CI 0.11–0.50). Unintentional injury incidence rate was high among children with most occurring in the homes.     

基于关联数字矩阵的科技创新政策传导路径研究

科技创新政策传导系统是一个动态复杂性反馈系统，基于关联数字矩阵对政策传导系统路径进行量化研究，综合考虑政策输入变量—政策过程变量—政策输出变量的整个过程，建立科技创新政策传导模型，结合关联数字矩阵反馈复杂性、系统动力学和政策科学，构建科技创新政策传导系统因果关系图，并根据政策工具的划分解析人才、税收、研发、政府采购、服务外包5类政策的作用路径。研究发现：①科技创新政策传导系统存在87条正反馈环，无负反馈环，其中主导反馈环45条；②通过关联数字矩阵最终得到14条政策独立主导传导路径并明确各个路径的数量、长度和极性，其中，8条路径都存在延迟效应；③人才激励在政策调控促进创新和发展中占比较大，具有重要地位，服务外包政策紧随其后，两类政策工具对政策调控效果具有直接显著作用，而研发补贴政策对目标的调控最缺乏活力。     

Distress financing of out‐of‐pocket health expenditure in India

In the absence of a universal health insurance mechanism, the increasing burden of out‐of‐pocket (OOP) health expenditure has become a growing concern in India. To cope with the cost of illness, people use either their savings and income, or they have to rely upon distress means of finance such as depletion of household assets, borrowings from banks and moneylenders, and contributions from family and friends. This paper analyses the changes that have taken place in the incidence and covariates of distress financing in India by using data from National Sample Survey Organisation for the years 2004 and 2014. Results indicate that during this period the incidence of distress sources as a means to finance OOP health expenditure has hovered around 50%. Further, the results reveal a significant socioeconomic gradient in the incidence of distress financing. Socioeconomic and health‐related covariates significantly impact the likelihood of distress financing as a means to cope with OOP health expenditure. The results indicate the need for government action to formulate a comprehensive plan through an increase in public spending on health care that will improve the quantity and quality of the public health‐care system and enhance the scope of health insurance in India.