公司债务期限结构影响因素的实证分析

本文以上市公司板面数据及横截面数据为基础,利用混合时间序列回归、横截面回归和固定效果回归等方法,对影响我国上市公司债务期限结构的因素进行了实证检验。结果发现,除契约成本假说中成长机会外,绝大部分因素的检验结果与预期一致,进而验证了其适用性;经验证据不支持信息不对称假说;对税负假说相关因素的检验结果表现出不确定性;期限匹配假说得到了支持。研究还证明,具有较少自由现金流量、杠杆水平较高、规模大、受到管制和资产期限长的公司具有更多的长期债务。     

负债代理成本影响因素实证分析——来自我国上市公司的证据

本文以我国上市公司面板数据及横截面数据为基础,运用线性回归分析对影响公司负债代理成本的因素进行了实证检验。结果发现,负债代理成本与债务期限结构、公司规模、财务灵活性及盈利能力的变化显著负相关;与公司未来成长性、资产期限、负债规模的变化显著正相关。     

A simple agent model of an epidemic

This paper presents an agent model that simulates the spread of an infection in a population. The epidemic depicted could be any attribute that is passed from a one person to others in society, for example, a disease, an idea or belief, a fad, a market or a behavioral pattern. The model was constructed to study the sensitivity of factors such as virility of the infectious agent, the “reach” of the vector and the density of the population in which the epidemic takes place. A further goal was to begin the development of a general-purpose forecasting model based on the use of agents. The model and its results are presented in this paper.     

阴道镜诊断宫颈人乳头状瘤病毒感染的临床分析

目的:探讨阴道镜在宫颈人乳头状瘤病毒感染诊断中的临床应用价值。方法:2006年1月至2007年12月,在本院妇科门诊行阴道镜检查的患者,以其宫颈组织学检查结果为标准,对阴道镜检查结果进行分析。结果:病理学级别越高,宫颈SPI感染阳性率越高。阴道镜诊断宫颈SPI的敏感性为84.8%,特异性为97.5%,阳性预测值为70.9%,阴性预测值为98.9%。结论:阴道镜对诊断宫颈SPI有较重要的临床价值。     

Economic and clinical contributions of an antimicrobial barrier dressing: a strategy for the reduction of surgical site infections

Abstract

Objective:

In patients at risk of surgical site infection (SSI), there is evidence that an antimicrobial barrier dressing (Acticoat) applied immediately post-procedure is effective in reducing the incidence of infection. The objective of this study was to assess when it is appropriate to use an antimicrobial barrier dressing rather than a post-operative film dressing, by evaluating the net cost and budget impact of the two strategies.

Methods:

An economic model was developed, which estimates expected expenditure on dressings and the expected costs of surgical site infection during the initial inpatient episode, based on published literature on the pre-discharge costs of surgical infection and the efficacy of an antimicrobial barrier dressing in preventing SSI.

Results:

At an SSI risk of 10%, an antimicrobial barrier dressing strategy is cost neutral if the incidence of infection is reduced by at least 9% compared with a post-operative film dressing. At 35% efficacy, expenditure on dressings would be higher by £30,760 per 1000 patients, and the cost of treating infection would be lower by £111,650, resulting in a net cost saving of £80,890. The break-even infection risk for cost neutrality is 2.6%.

Limitations:

Although this cost analysis is based on published data, there are limitations in methodology: the model is dependent on and subject to the limitations of the data used to populate it. Further studies would be useful to increase the robustness of the conclusions, particularly in a broader range of surgical specialities.

Conclusions:

A strategy involving the use of an antimicrobial barrier dressing in patients at moderate (5–10%) or high (>10%) risk of infection appears reasonable and cost saving in light of the available clinical evidence.     

Economic impact of introducing TYRX amongst patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction undergoing implanted cardiac device procedures: a retrospective model based cost analysis

Background and aims: Infection is a serious and expensive complication of Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device (CIED) procedures. A retrospective based cost analysis was performed to estimate Trust level savings of using the TYRX antibacterial envelope as a primary prevention measure against infection in a tertiary referral centre in South London, UK.

Methods: A retrospective cohort of heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction undergoing Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) or Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) procedures were evaluated. Decision-analytic modelling was performed to determine economic savings of using the envelope during CIED procedure vs CIED procedure alone.

Results: Over a 12?month follow-up period following CIED procedure, the observed infection rate was 3.14% (n?=?5/159). The average cost of a CIED infection inpatient admission was £41,820 and, further to economic analysis, the additional costs attributable to infection was calculated at £62,213.94. A cost saving of £624 per patient by using TYRX during CIED procedure as a primary preventative measure against infection was estimated.

Conclusions: TYRX would be a cost-saving treatment option amongst heart failure patients undergoing ICD and CRT device procedures based on analysis in the local geographical area of South London. If upscaled to the UK population, we estimate potential cost savings for the National Health Service (NHS).     

A rational-choice model of Covid-19 transmission with endogenous quarantining and two-sided prevention

This paper offers a parsimonious, rational-choice model to study the effect of pre-existing inequalities on the transmission of COVID-19. Agents decide whether to “go out” (or self-quarantine) and, if so, whether to wear protection such as masks. Three elements distinguish the model from existing work. First, non-symptomatic agents do not know if they are infected. Second, some of these agents unknowingly transmit infections. Third, we permit two-sided prevention via the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: the probability of a person catching the virus from another depends on protection choices made by each. We find that a mean-preserving increase in pre-existing income inequality unambiguously increases the equilibrium proportion of unprotected, socializing agents and may increase or decrease the proportion who self-quarantine. Strikingly, while higher pre-COVID inequality may or may not raise the overall risk of infection, it increases the risk of disease in social interactions.     

Economic burden of healthcare-associated infection in US acute care hospitals: societal perspective

Abstract

Background:

Assessing the costs of healthcare-associated infection (HAI) is challenging. Methodological issues abound. Previous estimates have been derived in diverse ways from varied perspectives in different settings with dissimilar data. Results can be confusing. Full societal costs, which are more inclusive than commonly reported direct hospital costs, have never been fully measured or reported.

Objective:

To update, combine, and expand previous cost estimates to determine the annual societal burden of illness (direct medical, non-medical, and indirect costs) arising from HAIs in US acute-care hospitals.

Methods:

The research approach encompassed literature and internet searches; reference identification, selection, and review; then data abstraction, compilation, and analyses to estimate full societal costs. Previously published systemic reviews, surveillance reports, and individual clinical studies, along with newly computed component costs, all contributed to final estimates.

Results:

HAIs in US acute-care hospitals lead to direct and indirect costs totaling $96–$147 billion annually. These results are subject to the same limitations as previous studies from which contributing data were derived.

Conclusion:

The enormous clinical and economic burden of infection places HAIs high on the list of devastating and costly illnesses, such as cancer, heart attack, stroke, and diabetes, thereby mandating further research and greater efforts to contain a pressing healthcare problem.     

2002-2012年世界卫生组织发布的疫情信息分析

[目的]了解历年来全球疫情信息,为制定口岸防控策略提供依据。[方法]对2002-2012年世界卫生组织所公布的疫情信息进行收集、整理和分析。[结果]所报道的传染病共涉及45个病种,分布在6大洲,203个国家和地区;呼吸道传染病的信息条数最多,消化道传染病病例数最多,出血热类传染病病死率最高;消化道传染病、虫媒传染病、其他传染病和未确诊疾病均在非洲最多。[结论]世界卫生组织网站公布的疫情信息对于传染病预警有重要意义;针对非洲等地区的重点航班、重点航线加强检疫非常必要;呼吸道传染病是国境卫生检疫防控的重点疾病;对入境人员中有消化道症状的人员仍应开展经典的消化道传染病筛查,对病毒性出血热类疾病也应提高警惕。     

阴道镜诊断宫颈人乳头状瘤病毒感染的临床分析

目的:探讨阴道镜在宫颈人乳头状瘤病毒感染诊断中的临床应用价值。方法:2006年1月至2007年12月,在本院妇科门诊行阴道镜检查的患者,以其宫颈组织学检查结果为标准,对阴道镜检查结果进行分析。结果:病理学级别越高,宫颈SPI感染阳性率越高。阴道镜诊断宫颈SPI的敏感性为84.8%,特异性为97.5%,阳性预测值为70.9%,阴性预测值为98.9%。结论:阴道镜对诊断宫颈SPI有较重要的临床价值。