Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?

In this paper, I assess the evidence for a structural break in labor productivity growth in the years before the Great Recession with the use of out-of-sample forecasting exercises for the years 2010 to 2019 and the recently developed Beveridge–Nelson filter. Models based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter with no structural breaks outperform those allowing for a structural break, and there is statistically significant evidence that they outperform the random walk, though all models were too optimistic about labor productivity growth. Recently developed statistical tests do point to the presence of a structural break before the Great Recession, but uncertainty about the data-generating process for labor productivity growth or the timing and magnitude of the break may be too great to be helpful in forecast preparation.     

工资对个人劳动供给的非线性影响：部门市场化程度差异视角

从市场经济体制的建立到经济社会高质量发展，我国不同部门市场化程度有所差异，劳动供给的部门异质性随之体现。基于中国劳动力动态调查数据，结合汉森门槛回归模型和劳动供给模型，依托部门市场化程度的差异性，文章探讨了工资对劳动力个人供给的非线性影响及其部门异质性。主要得出以下研究结论：第一，我国市场部门与公共部门劳动力的个人劳动供给有所差异。第二，工资与个人劳动供给呈现非线性关系并且存在部门异质性。实证分析结果显示，工资对个人劳动供给的影响存在三个"突变点"，工资门槛均使得工资"激励效应"加强并呈现逐步增加的趋势。第三，劳动供给的工资门槛存在性别、城乡和行业异质性。第四，随着年龄增长、人力资本积累，个人劳动时间供给趋于降低，签署书面劳工合同使得市场部门劳动力工作时间显著增加，而政治面貌显著影响公共部门劳动供给。总体来看，无论是市场部门还是公共部门，我国劳动力个人供给曲线均未"向后弯曲"，国民经济高质量发展、改善收入分配格局、提升居民幸福感等议题需持续关注。     

Labor market analysis through transformations and robust multivariate models

The work presents a robust approach to labor share analysis. The estimate of labor share presents various complexities related to the nature of the data sets to be analyzed. Typically, labor share is evaluated by using discriminant analysis and linear or generalized linear models, that do not take into account the presence of possible outliers. Moreover, the variables to be considered are often characterized by a high dimensional structure. The proposed approach has the objective of improving the estimation of the model using robust multivariate regression techniques and data transformation.     

Labor income and risky investments: can part-time farmers compete?

In the developed countries, a majority of farm households receive at least as much income from nonfarm sources as from the farm. Such part-time farms have survived inspite of lower returns than full-time farms. This paper considers when lower returns to part-time farming could be compensated by risk-reduction due to diversification of income sources. The paper uses a dynamic portfolio choice model with labor income. The model and results could be applied in other contexts as well.     

仓库物资装卸最优性方案的选择

军队后方仓库是军用物资装备的储备基地，是军队物流系统的一个重要环节。如何利用现有条件，提高日常乃至战时仓库的收发、存储能力和工作效率，是提高军队后勤保障能力的一个重要课题。本文对仓库物资装卸中的几个主要技术经济指标进行探讨分析。     

话语民主理论下可持续发展中的公民参与

可持续发展目标的追求需要公民的集体判断，公民参与作为可持续发展的基本原则之一，有利于实现可持续发展的目标，也是为避免“公地悲剧”尴尬局面的必然选择。从话语民主理论的角度来看，我国可持续发展进程中存在着公民参与可持续发展的不完善性和公民淡漠的问题，以及官僚式的独白现象。因此，要构建公共能量场确保可持续发展政策执行过程公民话语的正当性和合法性，实行一些人的对话参与可持续发展，通过“重复性实践”使可持续发展中的公民参与制度化。     

户籍歧视对劳动报酬差异的影响

在我国，户籍歧视是形成劳动力市场分割的重要原因，它不但通过阻碍劳动力流动造成城乡收入差异，也会促成农民工和城镇工人之间劳动报酬的差异。本文利用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）多年的数据，对我国户籍歧视影响劳动报酬差异的程度进行计算和分析。结论表明，近几年户籍歧视现象并没有明显改观，政府在制定相应政策时，仍需关注这方面的问题。     

城市发展质量评价的公众参与研究

城市发展质量评价是现代城市治理的有效手段之一。公众参与城市发展质量评价不仅是民主政治的集中体现,也有助于提高评价的质量和信度。本文在分析城市发展质量与公众之间辩证关系的基础上,讨论了公众在城市发展质量评价中的主体作用,分析了评价过程各阶段的公众参与形式,并初步研究了公众参与的主要问题及对策。     

论集体合同制度在现代企业制度建设中的地位

建立现代企业制度，是在生产资料公有制的前提条件下，解决公有制的生产资料在生产过程中的实现形式问题，目的是使公有制与市场经济的效率统一起来。在产权制度改革过程中，在解决所有权与经营权的关系时，应注意劳动权的保护，建立所有权、经营权、劳动权相互依存、相互促进的体制。劳动集体合同制度的建设，具有重要意义。