Serial Nonparticipation in Repeated Discrete Choice Models

We consider alternative econometric strategies for addressing serial nonparticipation, that is, repeated choice of the same alternative or same type of alternative across a series of choice occasions, in data typically analyzed within the repeated discrete choice framework. Single and double hurdle variants of the repeated discrete choice model are developed and applied to choice experiment and multisite seasonal recreation demand data. Our results suggest that hurdle models can generate significant improvements in statistical fit and qualitatively different policy implications, particularly in choice experiment applications where the proper treatment of serial nonparticipation is relatively more ambiguous.     

Risk‐Adjusted Measures of Value Creation in Financial Institutions

Abstract Many financial institutions assess portfolio decisions using RAROC, the ratio of expected return to risk (or ‘economic’) capital. We use asset pricing theory to determine the appropriate hurdle rate, finding that this varies with the skewness of asset returns. We quantify this discrepancy under a range of assumptions showing that the RAROC hurdle rate differs substantially, being higher by a factor of five or more for equity which has a right skew compared to debt which has a pronounced left skew, and also between different qualities of debt exposure. We discuss implications for both financial institution risk management and supervision.     

Target volatility option pricing in the lognormal fractional SABR model

We examine in this article the pricing of target volatility options in the lognormal fractional SABR model. A decomposition formula of Itô's calculus yields an approximation formula for the price of a target volatility option in small time by the technique of freezing the coefficient. A decomposition formula in terms of Malliavin derivatives is also provided. Alternatively, we also derive closed form expressions for a small volatility of volatility expansion of the price of a target volatility option. Numerical experiments show the accuracy of the approximations over a reasonably wide range of parameters.     

On composite lognormal-Pareto models

Recently, Cooray & Ananda (2005) proposed a composite lognormal-Pareto model for use with loss payments data of the sort arising in the actuarial and insurance industries. Their model is based on a lognormal density up to an unknown threshold value and a two-parameter Pareto density thereafter. Here we identify and discuss limitations of this composite lognormal-Pareto model which are likely to severely curtail its potential for practical application to real world data sets. In addition, we present two different composite models based on lognormal and Pareto models in order to address these concerns. The performance of all three composite models is discussed and compared in the context of an example based upon a well-known fire insurance data set.     

Determinants of herbicide use in rice production in the Philippines

This study identifies farm‐specific and market factors affecting the adoption of herbicides and the level of herbicide use by rice farmers in the Philippines. This requires the application of a modified version of Heckman's two‐step method to estimate a random‐effects double‐hurdle model for unbalanced panel data. The age of the farmer, household size, and irrigation use are significant determinants of the decision of farmers to adopt herbicides as an alternative to manual weeding, while economic variables such as the price of herbicides, total income, and access to credit determine the level of herbicide use. Determinants of both adoption and level are land ownership, farm area, and the method of crop establishment. These results are potentially relevant when designing policies to reduce excessive herbicide use or to encourage the adoption of alternative weed control methods such as integrated weed management.     

What drives bilateral foreign direct investment among Asian economies?

This study analyses the role of knowledge transfers via bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) among 31 Asian economies. We make three distinct contributions to the literature on the drivers of FDI by: (1) applying the knowledge-capital model to FDI among Asian economies for the first time, using a comprehensive data set, and comparing it to an empirical gravity-type model of FDI; (2) conducting model selection tests to choose between alternative empirical specifications and estimation methods; and (3) modelling both the FDI participation decision and the decision on the amount of FDI. The main findings are: (1) while vertical FDI, driven by seeking low-cost unskilled labour, appears to be the dominant type of intra-Asian FDI, overall the knowledge-capital model is not supported by the data; and (2) conventional gravity variables (e.g., size, distance, common language) provide a better explanation of intra-Asian FDI and, therefore, a more suitable vehicle for future research.     

Scarcity signaling in sales promotion: An evolutionary perspective of food choice and weight status

Obesity rates are increasing worldwide, with an alarming number of associated co-morbidities and deaths. Evolutionary psychology explains this development with an inherent preference for fatty and sweet foods. Recent evidence shows that consumers with a low socioeconomic status are more prone to being obese, but also that consumers with few resources respond more to scarcity signals. Based on this background, this paper investigates whether overweight individuals with a low income respond more to scarcity signaling in terms of sales promotions than others.To this end, a large-scale online survey was conducted across four food product categories in the setting of an online supermarket. Results show that overweight or obese individuals with low income levels responded more strongly to scarcity signaling. The findings inform researchers in terms of explaining different responses to sales promotions and support practitioners in aligning sales promotions to target group-specific behavior.     

Climate Risk and Technology Adoption in the Midstream of Crop Value Chains: Evidence from Nigerian Maize Traders

Climate induced events exacerbate food production and distribution risks, posing a threat to global food security. Though many studies focus on farmer adaptation to climate change, there are few studies of actors in the middle of agricultural value chains such as traders, logistics providers, and processors. The activities of these actors, referred to as the ‘hidden middle’, are key determinants of the prices received by farmers and the price and quality of food products for consumers. We explore how climate events and risk perceptions affect the adoption of value‐adding and damage control strategies among maize traders in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous country. We find consistent evidence that climate events and climate risk perception discourage the adoption of value‐adding practices including storage. This potentially affects the availability and price of maize for consumers (household and industry) in the lean season. However, once traders store maize, climate risk does not affect the adoption of damage control, but training and social networks do. These findings suggest that actors in the midstream of food value chains are responding to climate change and more attention needs to be paid to these actors to maintain the availability of affordable and safe maize products throughout the year. There is also a need for strategies to reduce the risks of trading activities due to climate change.