珍珠港：历史记忆与当代阐释—解读《战争风云—珍珠港的灾难》

珍珠港事件是二战中最惨痛的一幕,而沃克在《战争风云》中借助阿尔明·冯·隆的阐述却给我们提供了新的思考：被袭击部队的指挥员是不能原谅的;作为亲密盟友的邱吉尔却为这次偷袭而快乐地流泪。一切都是辨证的,辨证的分析有助于对历史的把握,但这并不妨碍人们对罪恶的日本法西斯永恒的仇恨记忆。     

What Drives the Historical Formation and Persistent Development of Territorial States?

The importance of the length of state history for understanding variations in income levels and growth rates across countries has received a lot of attention in the recent literature on long‐run comparative development. The literature, however, is silent about its origins. This paper explores the determinants of statehood by considering the potential roles of an early transition to fully‐fledged agricultural production, the adoption of state‐of‐the‐art military innovations, and the opportunity for economic interaction with the regional economic leader. The results demonstrate that only the association between economic interaction and the rise and development of the state is statistically robust.     

Shorting costs and profitability of long–short strategies

We examine how the profitability of long–short arbitrage strategies based on anomalies is affected after adjustment for two shorting costs: implicit cost due to unavailability of stocks in the short-leg to sell short and loan fees actually paid to stock lenders. The combined shorting cost amounts to almost 40 percent of long–short gross returns over the sample period from January 2006 to December 2017. After adjustment for these shorting costs, long–short arbitrage profits are thus reduced by almost 40 percent. Even after adjustment for risk, the proportion of shorting costs is also substantial. If other trade-related transaction costs are considered, long–short arbitrage profits would be reduced further. Our results provide explicit evidence that casts doubt on the profitability of long-short arbitrage strategies based on anomalies.     

对于\"长尾企业\"关系营销中顾客关系的探讨——基于长尾理论下顾客关系的探讨

随着互联网的普及,以及技术的飞速发展,\"长尾理论\"应运而生,\"长尾企业\"不断涌现,在此环境下怎样来做关系营销?尤其是关于顾客关系这一方面,它是否具有特殊性,怎样来改善长尾企业的顾客关系? 都是值得讨论的.     

广义Breitung非参数单位根检验研究——基于平稳假设下序列长期方差一致估计的分析

Breitung检验中生成序列的误差项的自相关会影响有限样本性质。本文用平稳假设下序列长期方差的一致估计量作为统计量的分母对其进行了修正。给出了修正后的统计量及其渐近理论,并对修正前后的有限样本性质进行了仿真。结果显示,修正后统计量概率密度的左偏有所减少;当误差项有自相关时,修正后检验的水平扭曲有所改进;当样本较小时,随误差项自回归(移动平均)系数或序列自回归系数的增加,修正后检验的势逐渐大于Breitung检验的势。     

Microfinance,the long tail and mission drift

Poor people were excluded from financial services until microfinance institutions (MFIs) emerged. The mission of MFIs is to alleviate poverty, contributing to women empowerment, especially in rural communities. Microcredits can be analyzed under Pareto's 80/20 Principle. Their clients are situated in the long tail of the wealth distribution function. This niche market is not very attractive, because of its high administrative costs, lack of deposits and the need for compensating low revenues with fluctuating subsidies. Some MFIs have drifted from their mission. This paper presents a model to explain microfinance mission drift, tested with hypotheses. The results from the empirical study show a pattern of mission centered MFI: a small NGO, with labor productivity, receiving donations and obtaining a high yield. It can be concluded that there is a need for reducing interest rates. According to the long tail theory, this could be done by using efficient technology, as it has been achieved in the e-commerce sector.     

我国基金风格资产收益长记忆性分析——基于修正R/S方法的研究

证券市场是个典型的非线性复杂系统。本文运用修正R/S分析法对我国基金风格资产收益单一分形的基本统计特征进行检验,并与经典R/S方法进行对比分析。研究结果表明:在日、周、月等三种时间标度下Hurst指数均显著大于0.5,表现为持久相关性特征,说明股市风格具有长记忆性;从经典R/S分析结果看,我国股市风格具有显著的分形结构特征,风格资产指数收益率序列具有长记忆性,不同风格资产的业绩具有不同的周期性。