基于MCS的PERT工期求解方法

网络计划本身具有不确定性,只有在特定条件下才取某个定值,在许多情况下,估计项目活动时间是困难的.本文针对项目活动时间不确定的特征,结合MCS引入PERT解决项目工期的求解问题.     

用PERT法求解不确定网络中活动时间参数的改进研究

基于计划评审技术(PERT)中β分布的假设,阐述了常规三时估计方法的不足,提出了相应解决对策,即采用限定概率三时估计法分别建立了β分布和Gamma分布拟合方差最小模型,用微粒群算法求解模型,并且将求解结果与常规三时估计方法进行了对比研究。实例证实,对于不同类型的活动,可以选择合理的分布类型并利用限定概率三时估计法,对各个活动的持续时间服从的分布密度函数进行拟合,从而提高PERT的精度和效率。     

Forecasting house prices using dynamic model averaging approach: Evidence from China

Forecasting house price has been of great interests for macroeconomists, policy makers and investors in recent years. To improve the forecasting accuracy, this paper introduces a dynamic model averaging (DMA) method to forecast the growth rate of house prices in 30 major Chinese cities. The advantage of DMA is that this method allows both the sets of predictors (forecasting models) as well as their coefficients to change over time. Both recursive and rolling forecasting modes are applied to compare the performance of DMA with other traditional forecasting models. Furthermore, a model confidence set (MCS) test is used to statistically evaluate the forecasting efficiency of different models. The empirical results reveal that DMA generally outperforms other models, such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA), information-theoretic model averaging (ITMA) and equal-weighted averaging (EW), in both recursive and rolling forecasting modes. In addition, in recent years it is found that the Google search index, instead of fundamental macroeconomic or monetary indicators, has developed greater predictive power for house price in China.     

基于LabVIEW的远程数据采集终端通信接口的设计与实现

对LabVIEW的串行通信接口驱动进行了研究,对用VISA编程进行了初步的尝试,设计并实现了基于LabVIEW的上位机控制程序,以及基于MCS-51单片机控制的数据采集终端的数据存储与控制,完成了基于8051单片机的远程数据采集终端的上位机串口通信接口部分程序,并且通过了测试.     

中学第二外语听力课中MCS方法的探讨(英文)

本文通过前人对元认知、元认知策略和MCS方法在第二外语听课以及作者的调查探讨MCS方法在第二外语听力课的重要性以及基本原则。本研究发现MCS方法可以帮助学生对MCS方法引起注意并从某些方面提高学生的听力理解的能力,其中包括学习环境、学习计划、选择适合的学习策略、合作学习、检测、评估以及在听力课堂进行策略的调整。     

Innovation in entrepreneurial organisations: A platform for contemporary management change and a value creator

PurposeThis article examines the significance of innovation to organisations following strategies of entrepreneurial orientation. In particular, the study looks at the significance innovation adds to the implementation of contemporary management control systems (MCSs) and to improved performance in these organisations.Design/methodology/approachA quantitative analysis was conducted based on a random sample of Australian manufacturing companies. A structural equation modelling approach was adopted to test the study hypotheses.FindingsResults suggest that innovation mediates the relationships between entrepreneurial strategy and each of participative budgeting, the balanced score card (BSC), total quality management (TQM), just in time (JIT), and organisational performance. The study does not indicate a significant relationship between entrepreneurial strategy and activity based costing (ABC), even when innovation is in place.Originality/valueThe study empirically tests the vital role of innovation in the organisational adaptive cycle to entrepreneurial strategies, described earlier by Miles and Snow (1978). Further, the study validates a multi-dimensional strategy model first suggested by Langfield-Smith (1997).     

多元资本结构在中国企业的实证研究

随着资本概念的多元化,相对于企业组织和市场配置方式而言,网络化配置更适应于现代经济生活中的资本概念。资本的网络化配置产生了资本网络系统,并使得资本结构从一元结构的优化转变为多元结构的优化。本文分析了各资本要素之间的因果关系,并利用结构化方程进行了实证检验。其结论有:财务资本对于人力资本存在投资转化作用;智力资本三要素之间存在着相互转化作用;财务资本和智力资本共同耦合创造企业价值。     

The effect of service process type, business strategy and life cycle stage on bureaucratic MCS in service organizations

This study uses the survey method to investigate the influence of several contingent variables on the design of MCS in service organizations. MCS was conceptualized in terms of five dimensions: action/results controls, formal/informal controls, tight/loose controls, restricted/flexible controls, and impersonal/interpersonal controls to form a composite measure of the degree of MCS bureaucracy. The framework used in this study recognizes that the service process type, business strategy, and stage in the organizational life cycle influence the choice of MCS design within an organization. Questionnaires were administered to financial controllers of service organizations operating in Australia. Using t tests and multiple regression analysis, the results indicated that (1) mass service, mature and cost leader firms place a greater emphasis on more bureaucratic forms of MCS, compared to professional service, growth and differentiator firms, and (2) service process type, organizational life cycle stage, and business strategies have a significant influence on the design of a firm's MCS.     

基于联系数的工期求解方法

网络计划具有不确定性,即本质上是在某个区间变化着的东西,只有在特定条件下才取某个定值。以往有关工程工期网络计划的不确定性问题的研究,主要集中在PERT的研究上。自1989年赵克勤提出用联系数来研究网络计划的不确定性以来,此方法得到广大学者的青睐。应用基于联系数的网络计划,结合MCS来求解工程工期问题,实例证明了此方法的可行性和有效性。