Estimating the Enduring Effects of Fertiliser Subsidies on Commercial Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: Panel Data Evidence from Malawi

Most studies of input subsidy programmes confine their analyses to measuring programme effects over a one‐year period. This article estimates the potential longer‐run or enduring effects of fertiliser subsidy programmes on smallholder farm households' demand for commercial fertiliser and maize production over time. We use four waves of panel data on 462 farm households in Malawi for whom fertiliser use can be tracked for eight consecutive seasons between 2003/2004 and 2010/2011. Panel estimation methods are used to control for potential endogeneity of subsidised fertiliser acquisition. Results indicate that farmers acquiring subsidised fertiliser in three consecutive prior years are found to purchase slightly more commercial fertiliser in the next year. This suggests a small amount of crowding in of commercial fertiliser from the receipt of subsidised fertiliser in prior years. In addition, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in a given year has a modest positive impact on increasing maize output in that same year. However, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in multiple prior years generates no statistically significant effect on maize output in the current year. These findings indicate that potential enduring effects of the Malawi fertiliser subsidy programme on maize production are limited. Additional interventions that increase soil fertility can make using inorganic fertiliser more profitable and sustainable for smallholders in sub‐Saharan Africa and thereby increase the cost‐effectiveness of input subsidy programmes.     

The economics of food aid under subsistence farming with an application to Malawi

We investigate how food-aid affects price and production of staple food, with a partial equilibrium model with non-separable production and consumption. The model captures the key characteristics of sub-Saharan Africa subsistence economies. Simulations generate negative but also positive food-aid elasticities of production. Conditions are identified which mitigate the negative impact and support a positive impact. The share of domestic food production in total staple food demand (+) and the share of income from staple food production in total household income (−) are key determinants. Price and production equations, estimated with a panel of district data of the Malawi maize market for the period 1999–2010, show a small positive impact of food-aid. Large negative impacts of food-aid are not likely given production and income shares and behavioural responses.     

How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Malawi

This article uses nationally representative household-level panel data from Malawi to estimate how rural population density impacts agricultural intensification and household well-being. We find that areas of higher population density are associated with smaller farm sizes, lower real agricultural wage rates, and higher real maize prices. Any input intensification that occurs seems to be going to increasing maize yields, as we find no evidence that increases in population density enable farmers to increase gross value of crop output per hectare. We also find evidence that households in more densely populated areas increasingly rely on off-farm income to earn a living, but there appears to be a rural population density threshold beyond which households can no longer increase off-farm income per capita.     

Youth engagement in agricultural policy processes in Malawi

This study assesses the nature of networking between youth and agricultural policy-makers – given youth disillustionment with agricultural livelihoods. Using the Malawi case, a mixed-methods approach shows, first, that local government departments which are mandated to work on youth issues are the main hubs of information for youth in agriculture. The Ministry of Agriculture plays a secondary role. Second, the study shows that youth in agriculture have little or no direct interactions with each other. Therefore, youth remain on the periphery of agricultural policy-making and their role in shaping agricultural policy dialogue is negligible. This is attributable to both lack of a deliberate government policy to include the youth and lack of a unified youth platform. The onus is therefore on the youth to ensure that they are effectively engaged in agricultural policy dialogue. The study concludes with policy recommendations relevant for countries with a ‘youth/agriculture’ problem like Malawi.