Impact of modern communication infrastructure on productivity,production structure and factor demands of US industries: Impact revisited

This study investigates the contribution of modern communication infrastructure characterized by high speed broadband access network on the productivity growth, production structure and factor demands for US industries and for the aggregate economy. To evaluate such contribution, we modify the traditional cost function by incorporating communication infrastructure as input in production process in conjunction with other public infrastructures. The network externality and spillover effect of broadband access technology are captured by introducing broadband penetration rate as a shift factor in industry level production function. Empirical results show that the increased use of modern communications infrastructure increases the productivity of all industries with wide variations across industries. Estimated impacts on input demands show that increase in use of communications infrastructure service saves labor and materials and increase the demand for private capital. Finally, aggregate social rate of return on such investment has been estimated for policy implications.     

网络教育浅谈

本通过对我国教育现状的分析和对网络教育特点的阐析，提出网络教育对现行教育体制的挑战，对我国高等教育由精英教育转向全民教育的深远影响，以及存在的差距和未来发展趋势。     

外资银行在拉美国家银行改革中的作用

20世纪80年代末至90年代初,受“华盛顿共识”影响,拉美国家开始了大规模的银行私有化改革。1994年末的墨西哥金融危机之后,为了缓解危机和提高银行经营效率,多数拉美国家在银行私有化改革中积极鼓励外资银行进入。对于新兴市场国家而言,盲目地西化,照抄照搬发达国家的经济模式不利于本国经济的健康发展。只有依据经济规律,根据本国实际采取适合自己发展水平和管理水平的金融体系,各个经济要素才能实现最优配置和利益的最大化。     

开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线

本文采用广义矩方法估计开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线，结合中国现实选择工具变量。结果表明，使用混合成本作为通货膨胀的驱动因素在统计和经济意义上具有显著性，影响我国通货膨胀主要是资本成本与进口中间品成本；厂商定价行为既有前瞻性又有后顾性，但前瞻性处于主导地位，且价格具有较强的灵活性。     

应该用哪一个模型来描述中国货币市场利率的动态变化

本文论证了双曲模型是描述中国货币市场利率动态变化的最佳单因子利率模型。由极大似然估计可以得到单因子利率模型的边际密度函数。双曲模型的边际密度和非参数估计得到的边际密度函数拟合较好，其表现远远优于几个常见的利率模型（CIR、CKLS和AG模型）。与较一般的Ait-Sahalia模型相比差别很小，但参数形式得到简化，似然比检验也支持这一点。双曲模型在刻画利率的均值回复特征方面还克服了AG模型的不足。     

Volatility in the knowledge economy

Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky     

公共资本生产率的比较研究——基于长三角21城市公共资本边际生产率的实证分析

近10年来长三角的政府公共投资（分配）过多地流向了上海、苏州、杭州、南京等核心城市，使这些城市的人均公共资本拥有量大幅上升，从而引发了其边际生产率递减情况的发生。但它们的资本利用效率或技术创新水平没有明显提升（或下降），不足以抵消其资本边际生产率下降的趋势。对这些大城市的经济发展来说，公共投资对其经济增长的意义已经在数量上表现得不明显，但对正处于经济快速增长期且资本边际生产率呈递增态势的长三角外缘中小城市而言，公共投资却有着积极意义。     

Why England? Demographic factors, structural change and physical capital accumulation during the Industrial Revolution

Why did England industrialize first? And why was Europe ahead of the rest of the world? Unified growth theory in the tradition of Galor and Weil (2000, American Economic Review, 89, 806–828) and Galor and Moav (2002, Quartely Journal of Economics, 177(4), 1133–1191) captures the key features of the transition from stagnation to growth over time. Yet we know remarkably little about why industrialization occurred much earlier in some parts of the world than in others. To answer this question, we present a probabilistic two-sector model where the initial escape from Malthusian constraints depends on the demographic regime, capital deepening and the use of more differentiated capital equipment. Weather-induced shocks to agricultural productivity cause changes in prices and quantities, and affect wages. In a standard model with capital externalities, these fluctuations interact with the demographic regime and affect the speed of growth. Our model is calibrated to match the main characteristics of the English economy in 1700 and the observed transition until 1850. We capture one of the key features of the British Industrial Revolution emphasized by economic historians — slow growth of output and productivity. Fertility limitation is responsible for higher per capita incomes, and these in turn increase industrialization probabilities. The paper also explores the availability of nutrition for poorer segments of society. We examine the influence of redistributive institutions such as the Old Poor Law, and find they were not decisive in fostering industrialization. Simulations using parameter values for other countries show that Britain’s early escape was only partly due to chance. France could have moved out of agriculture and into manufacturing faster than Britain, but the probability was less than 25%. Contrary to recent claims in the literature, 18th century China had only a minimal chance to escape from Malthusian constraints.     

我国会计信息质量变革与市场经济发展

市场经济的高速发展,对我国会计信息质量提出了更高的要求,也带来中国会计信息新的生成条件;同时,会计信息质量的变革也对市场经济的健康发展提供规范。本文就我国会计信息质量变革与市场经济发展的关系及其相互影响进行了探讨。     

印度"第二次绿色革命"与中国"新农村建设"之比较研究

2005年中共中央明确提出要把社会主义新农村建设放到一个突出的重要位置,与我国国情颇为相似的印度也几乎在同一时间提出了类似的发展战略,即"第二次绿色革命(green revolution)",两者都是针对"三农"问题而进行.对于两者进行比较研究,可以加深理解"新农村建设"的含义、内容和实质,更好地认识"新农村建设"的前景.