A multivariate distance nonlinear causality test based on partial distance correlation: a machine learning application to energy futures

This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series.     

Natural resource accounting for Indian states — Illustrating the case of forest resources

Our main objective is to set out and apply a SEEA-based methodology to reflect the true value of forest resources in India's national and state accounts. We establish that a “top-down” approach using available national databases is both feasible and desirable from a policy perspective. In this paper, we address four components of value creation in forests: timber production, carbon storage, fuelwood usage, and the harvesting of non-timber forest products. The results of our analysis suggest that prevailing measures of national income in India underestimate the contribution of forests to income. The income accounts of the Northeastern states in particular are significantly understated by these traditional (GDP/GSDP) measures. We are also able to identify some states which performed poorly in the context of our sustainability framework, reflecting natural capital losses due to degradation and deforestation. Our results highlight the need to integrate natural resource accounting into the national accounting framework in order to generate appropriate signals for sustainable forest management and for the conservation of forest resources which are widely used by the poor in India, as well as being significant stores of national wealth.     

东西部地区之间公益林生态补偿负担与分摊

由于东部和西部地区之间自然和社会经济条件的差别，在公益林生态补偿问题上将会存在严重的地区之间生态建设责任与利益不平衡．因此需要建立地区之间的财政支付方式来平衡这种不公平状况．以利于公益林生态补偿制度的建立和完善。     

Are EU trade preferences really effective? An impact evaluation assessment of the Southern Mediterranean Countries’ case

This work assesses the causal impact of the EU trade preferences granted to the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) in agriculture and fishery products over the period 2004–2014. It overcomes some of the weaknesses of previous assessments and presents several methodological improvements. Firstly, it relies on a continuous treatment – i.e. preferential margins – to capture the ‘average treatment effect’ of trade preferences, rather than on a binary treatment based on dummy variables. Secondly, it uses highly disaggregated data at sectoral level in order to evaluate properly the preferential treatment. Thirdly, it applies a non-parametric matching technique for continuous treatment – specifically, a generalized propensity score matching. The results show, on the one hand, that the impact of the EU preferences is positive and significant on SMCs trade and is better evaluated using impact evaluation techniques. On the other hand, they demonstrate that the relationship between preferences and trade flows is asymmetric and warn against the risk of providing too much of a good thing. These results raise important issues for policy-making. First, they demonstrate that raising the level of preferences is not the solution to foster the SMCs trade towards EU. Second, that the policy-makers should put more emphasis on complementary factors other than trade barriers.     

A comparative multidimensional evaluation of conservation agriculture systems: A case study from a Mediterranean area of Southern Italy

To avoid the current paradoxes of the global agro-food system it is necessary to define and implement a viable agricultural sustainable model, combining satisfaction of food needs and land preservation. A possible solution can be found in a holistic production system consistent with a sustainable development model, designed to satisfy diverse “local” economies. The conservation agriculture (CA) could be a part of this model, as it includes a set of best practices available to preserve agrarian soil and its biodiversity. Briefly, we cover the CA background in Europe followed by the evaluation of its impact in terms of private/public interest, using the sustainability’s metric.To test the viability of a model based on CA in “local conditions”, we compare economic performance of different conservation practices (i.e. minimum and no tillage) to that of conventional agriculture in a typical Mediterranean environment – Collina Materana – in Southern Italy (Basilicata region). Our findings suggest that: i) CA can actually be a viable alternative to conventional systems; ii) in Mediterranean agricultural areas CA has yield advantages especially during dry years, when conservation techniques increase water supply to crops; iii) public support is needed to direct farming choices in fact without financial incentives these practices would be not widely accepted and diffused; iv) European policy makers have to recognized the positive benefits of CA and pay them as ecosystem services in the framework of Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions and the present CAP subsidies.     

Urban containment in action? Long-term dynamics of self-contained urban growth in compact and dispersed regions of southern Europe

The present study illustrates an indicator of self-contained urban growth derived from official statistics with the aim of verifying if a shift from compactness towards settlement diffusion has occurred in cities with different socioeconomic and morphological characteristics. According to this approach, changes in settlement's distribution and density were assessed in four Mediterranean cities (Lisbon, Barcelona, Rome, and Athens) during 80 years between 1919 and 2001. Results indicated that settlement distribution, building density and self-contained urban growth diverged in the four regions since the early 1980s. However, cities with a compact form showed an higher self-contained growth rate than cities with dispersed form. These findings contrast with the similarity in settlement characteristics, population trends, and spatial organization of economic activities observed during the ‘compact growth’ phase (1950–1980) in all examined regions. Comparative analyses of exurban development through morphological indicators may inform strategies promoting self-contained urban growth.     

亚洲林业产权现状研究与分析

通过对国内外有关亚洲林业产权文献的回顾,对亚洲林业现状、林业产权的基本概念及亚洲林业产权进展情况进行了梳理与评述,在此基础上,从不同产权类型对森林资源的影响、产权的制约因素和产权制度变迁三个方面探讨了亚洲林业产权未来的发展趋势及前景。最后,建议我国今后在实施林权制度改革时应注意:加强授予权利的支持力度;加强林主的能力建设;提供充足的机构支持;分步实施改革。     

国有林区改革终极目的不是实行私有化

认为国有林区改革必须对林区的森林经营历史、林区的森林生长自然规律有所了解,以寻求改革的症结所在,并明确改革的目的和目标。对伊春林区改革试点出现的"分林"做法,导致国有林区国有资产的流失提出警示。不认同对国有林区改革的主要方向是"家庭承包"的提法,因为它违反林业经济规律和现代森林经营的基本要求。指出国有林区改革终极目标不是实行私有化。