海洋环境污染损失的货币价值估算——以珠江入海口为例

近年海洋经济的高速发展及海洋资源的不合理开发利用，给广东省的海洋资源与环境带来了一系列问题，有必要对海洋环境污染损失的货币价值进行估算，以更好地进行环境的投入与产出比较，将环境保护纳入经济核算体系。通过比较并应用各种货币化计量方法，分别算出珠江入海口海域的海洋渔业价值、水质净化价值等，对珠江入海口海域的生态系统经济价值进行评估，在此基础上，结合计量模型对海洋环境污染损失进行货币化综合计量，得到海洋环境污染造成的经济损失量的保守估计范围为 87.4~106.9 亿元/年。最后，提出广东省应充分使用财政资金的金融手段，建立多渠道、多层次和全方位的海洋环境保护体系，最终达到保护海洋生态环境和资源的目的。     

基于货币超经济发行视角的流动性过剩治理

本文基于货币超经济发行视角对流动性过剩进行量化分析,主张流动性过剩源于金融系统不良资产的货币化和动员式的投资驱动型数量增长模式;认为流动性过剩以经济景气循环为前提条件,通过三条传导渠道对实体经济产生负向冲击;从而建议采取对冲性货币政策工具吸收流动性增量,财政冲抵和其它均衡措施消解流动性存量的有效政策组合从根本上消除流动性过剩对经济的不利冲击.     

我国货币流通速度的变化趋势及原因分析

本文通过统计各项数据,得出1985-2010年的货币流通速度,通过数据分析,总结出我国货币流通速度的基本变化趋势:从长期来看,中国的货币流通速度处于不断下降的趋势,并且下降速度有趋缓的态势,但是在2009年,货币流通速度又出现一个幅度较大的下降。随后本文将从经济货币化、利率、产业结构、地区发展差异四个方面着重分析我国货币流通速度下降的原因,并从金融现代化角度分析货币流速下降幅度趋缓的原因,最后从经济危机导致的GDP下降和居民预防需求增加两个方面解释2009年货币流速大幅下降的原因。     

The myth of China’s monetization

This article develops a simple model of M2/GDP based on the money demand function of Milton Friedman. This model proves that M2/GDP is positively related to the expected wealth and negatively related to the opportunity costs of holding money. China’s extremely high monetization ratio as measured by M2/GDP is the result of a decades-long rapid economic growth and a depressed financial system. Fast economic growth leads to high expected wealth. A depressed financial system leads to low opportunity costs of holding money. The combination of those two factors increases money demand and leads to very high M2/GDP. The model is verified indirectly by testing two implied testable hypothesizes. The study of this article raises questions on the accuracy of M2/GDP as a measure of monetization.     

“货币超发”是此轮通货膨胀的根本原因吗

2010年下半年以来,我国通货膨胀问题变得日益严峻,绝大多数学者认为"货币超发"是这轮通胀的根本原因。而本文从货币化等角度出发,分析指出我国市场化改革的不完善和相对停滞才是此轮通胀的深层次原因,并在此基础上提出了治理通胀的长久之策。     

货币化、货币流通速度与产出——扩展的CIA约束与中国经验

本文从两个方面扩展了传统CIA约束:(1)消费品和资本品受货币约束的比例取决于货币化和信用化的发达程度;(2)货币交易频率受通胀率影响。这样能够在贴近中国现实的动态一般均衡框架下分析实际冲击与名义冲击对货币流通速度和产出的影响。理论模型中,综合考虑到投资和产出的变化时,货币化和信用化对货币需求和流通速度的影响并不确定,通胀率的上升也不必然导致投资减少或者货币需求下降。这有别于局部均衡分析以及传统CIA模型的结论。改革以来中国的经验数据也表明,尽管通胀率下降会降低流通速度,然而货币化进程并未导致流通速度的显著下降。货币化以及相关的金融制度变化假说不应成为流通速度下降的有力解释。     

高货币化、通货膨胀预期与通货膨胀

通货膨胀成为信用货币经济中循环往复的问题,货币是症结关键。通过建立包含货币缺口和收入差距的凯恩斯Phillips曲线理论模型,利用中国1979-2010年的数据实证得出:货币化通过两种途径作用于通货膨胀,一是通过扩大货币缺口、直接推动当期物价上升,二是高货币化导致了较高的通货膨胀预期,这种预期又推动了通货膨胀的自我实现。因此,在经济平稳发展情况下,货币化是一个金融发展程度指标,但在严重依赖货币扩张推动经济增长的情况下,货币化却可能是货币超发的指标,与通货膨胀存在着密切关系。     

Macroeconomic stability and economic justice

This article presents a proposal to broaden the right to acquire capital with the earnings of capital as a means of promoting sustainable economic recovery and growth. It would open the markets for real and financial capital acquisition more fully and competitively to poor and working people (1) to distribute more broadly the earnings of capital and (2) to profitably employ more capital and labor. Both the recession and the strategies advanced to promote economic recovery may be viewed as responses to the prospect of inadequate present and future earning capacity of both consumers and producers (1) to purchase what can physically be produced and (2) to repay existent and anticipated debt obligations. To increase the prospects of sufficient, sustainable earning capacity, the proposal advanced in this article would extend to all people the same protections and benefits presently provided by government that facilitate market transactions whereby capital is acquired with the earnings of capital primarily for well-capitalized people. Although in theory, all people in a market economy are able to acquire capital with the earnings of capital, reliable empirical data reveal that as a practical matter, the major determinant of the ability of individuals to acquire capital with the earnings of capital is the existing distribution of capital ownership. The theory of “binary” economic growth underlying this proposal holds that the market return on capital is positively related to the distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital. The prospect of a broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital carries with it the prospect of more broadly distributed earning capacity in future years, which in turn will provide the market incentives to profitably employ more capital and labor in earlier years. The idea that the broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital will promote growth is not found in any of the widely accepted theories and models of economic growth such as those proposed by Schumpeter, Solow, Roemer, and Lucas. By opening to all people the institutions of corporate finance, banking, insurance, government loans and guaranties, and monetary policy (the very institutions presently relied upon by the Federal Government to stimulate the economy) the practical ability to acquire capital with the earnings of capital can be more broadly extended to all people with the result that greatly enhanced prospects for greater and more broadly distributed earning capacity and growth can be reasonably expected and realized by all.     

论住房分配货币化

实行住房分配货币化,是当前住房制度改革的核心。国务院提出从１９９８年下半年起,在全国停止住房实物分配,实行住房分配货币化。停止的时间和改革的办法由各地在全国统一政策指导下自行决定。大连市经过相当充分的准备,于１９９９年６月上旬制定了改革办法,定于７月１日起实行。住房分配货币化问题,引起人们的热切关注     

金融控制、广义铸币税与经济转轨中的价格稳定

"强金融、弱财政"曾是中国转轨经济的一个特殊现象。本文将分析造就这种特殊经济格局的主要原因,以及这种格局对经济转轨和金融改革产生的影响。为了将金融与财政两个经济领域纳入一个统一的分析框架,我们引入了广义铸币税的定义,即置于金融控制下的银行体系创造的存贷利息差。研究表明:广义铸币税的存在使政府有能力弥补经济自由化过程中迅速下降的财政收入,从而使中国成功地避免了前苏东国家在转轨时期出现的财政赤字型通货膨胀。研究结论表明,在政府建立有效的财税制度确保财政收支平衡之前,保持金融控制是必要的。