项目挣值的绩效差异分析方法缺陷与解决方案

随着各种项目管理体制和方法的全面转型,我国需要借鉴和运用国际通行的项目挣值管理(EVM)绩效评估方法。然而,现有EVM绩效评估方法中存在着将实际多个项目要素影响简化为项目成本和进度两要素造成的绩效评估失真和信息缺失的实际问题与理论缺陷。本文将全面讨论现有的EVM方法,并给出有关解决方案及实务验证。     

Panel data analysis of multi-factor capital asset pricing models

In this article, we propose MFCAPM panel models with fixed effects and test theories associated with risk exposures and anomalies postulated by Fama and French, and we assess their out-of-sample predictive performances. Based on the portfolios formed by French, we construct 10 panel models, each consisting of 10 portfolios grouped by size deciles, and another 10 panels by value deciles. In the presence of cross-section dependence, the MFCAPM panel model is estimated by the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method for the sample period 1963(1)-2018(9). The results show that the market, firm-size and value risk exposures are significant and robust across three-, five- and six-factor panel models. Significant time-fixed effects indicate that there are several portfolios resilient to dot.com bubble peak in 2000, while some others resilient to GFC in 2007. We estimate the models for the in-sample period 1963(1)–1999(12) and generate the out-of-sample portfolio returns for the period 2000(1)–2018(9). We find that portfolio returns forecasts generated by the six-factor panel model are superior to other MFCAPM panel models, mostly due to the momentum factor (investor behaviour) explaining large return variations and volatility exposures. The findings have implications for investors, security traders and portfolio risk managers.