人民币汇率的非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率

在现行制度背景下 ,本文从我国外汇市场经济主体微观行为出发 ,建立了我国的外汇需求和供给函数 ;进而分析了市场的均衡和非均衡态势 ,讨论了人民币汇率稳定运行态势后面的微观行为原因。分析发现 :1 .人民币汇率的非均衡是必然的和经常的 ,不能形成市场均衡汇率。在此背景下形成的现实汇率势必是扭曲的汇率 ,由此导致外汇资源的配置扭曲以及相应的真实资源配置扭曲。 2 .在汇率的稳定和调节机制上 ,当前汇率制度类似于“可调整的盯住汇率制” ,我国汇率制度因此具有固定汇率制的特征 ,但不具备固定汇率制的汇率稳定机制———稳定的汇率预期。 3 .现行汇率制度构成对汇率政策的严重制约 ,调节国际收支不得不倚重于直接管制政策的运用 ;货币政策丧失了独立性 ,加剧宏观经济的波动。这种低效率表明 ,我国当前汇率制度及其微观市场安排急待改革。     

Learning,non-equilibrium beliefs,and non-pecuniary payoffs in an experimental game

Summary. We present a parametric learning model of players' dynamic and possibly out-of-equilibrium beliefs about other players' preferences that also incorporates random utility (noise). We estimate the model using the data from the four-country ultimatum game experiments of Roth et al. (1991). We find evidence that in the US and in Israel, the estimated beliefs of proposers are stationary and out-of-equilibrium, that in Slovenia, they are in equilibrium, and that in Japan, they are out-of-equilibrium, change from period to period and move away from equilibrium over time. In Japan and in the US, the estimated proposers' beliefs are further away from the uniform prior than the estimated equilibrium beliefs. The results seem to provide support for a non-pecuniary payoff explanation in all countries. Received: May 16, 2000; revised version: December 15, 2001 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Alvin Roth for providing us with the data sets of Roth, Prasnikar, Okuno-Fujiwara, and Zamir (1991). We are very grateful to Vincent Crawford, Joel Sobel, and an anonymous referee for all their comments and feedback. We are also grateful to J?rg Borrmann, Bruno Broseta, Jimmy Chan, Liran Einav, Bernd Engelmann, Drew Fudenberg, Oscar Jorda, Muriel Niederle, Pedro Pereira, Georg Weizs?cker, and audiences at the California Institute of Technology, Harvard University, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and at the European Summer Meetings of the Econometric Society in Lausanne for their comments. Costa-Gomes was affiliated with the Harvard Business School during part of his work on this project. The usual disclaimer applies. Correspondence to:M.A. Costa-Gomes and K.G. Zauner     

供给拉动和需求推动的金融监管制度改进

金融监管制度供给不足和金融监管制度供给过剩是我国金融监管制度非均衡的两种基本形式。中国金融监管制度在总体上体现出政府供给主导型的特征,需求主导型尚未形成。随着金融创新发展,需要在基于市场需求、金融市场参与者的效用、金融功能等方面推动监管制度的供给。要实现金融监管制度供给、需求的均衡,仅从供给和需求的单方面改进无法实现,这就必须寻求第三条道路,既要有供给的适当超前性,也要有需求的拉动,走强制性和诱致性的交互演进之路。     

市场非均衡、知识与企业家过程

熊彼特和柯兹纳对企业家作用的不同看法直接导致了他们对企业家过程的不同理解。实际上他们所描绘的是两种不同类型的企业家,即创新型企业家和套利型企业家,这两种不同类型的企业家分别承担了创造性破坏和恢复均衡的职责。这两种企业家在经济增长中的作用是互相补充、互相依存的,两者共同构成了一个完整的、动态的企业家过程。在这个动态循环体系中,企业家知识是环流的介质。它的实质是企业家知识在市场中被创造、扩散、发现和吸收利用的过程。     

我国区域科普非均衡发展的实证分析及与经济协调发展的对策

改革开放后,我国实行的是非均衡经济发展战略,从而导致东部科学技术普及与经济发展水平明显高于中西部地区。通过分析我国东、中、西部三大区域之间以及各省（区、市）之间科普的非均衡发展现状,指出区域科普发展水平与其经济发展水平之间存在正相关关系。同时,探讨了科学技术普及与经济发展的互动机制,最后提出了促进我国区域科学技术普及与经济协调发展的对策。     

融资制度的非均衡性:中小企业融资难的一种新解释

中小企业融资难的根本原因在于支持中小融资制度的非均衡性,这种非均衡性集中表现在有效融资制度供给不足和无效融资制度仍旧存在。本文从银行和政府层面分析了由于国有银行一股独大的产权因素、新制度设计存在"搭便车"现象、政府制度供给成本过高以及政府有限理性等原因制约了新的融资制度供给,进而提出了缓解中小企业融资制度非均衡的制度安排。     

中国区域经济发展战略的形成与评析

对外开放是从经济特区的试验开始的;经济特区的设立是对比较优势原则的重新尊重和非均衡协调发展的重新肯定;在非均衡发展战略的影响下为我国融入世界经济,提高国际市场上的竞争力奠定了基础。     

A rigorous periodization of ‘big’ history

‘Big’ history is the time between the Big Bang and contemporary technological life on Earth. The stretch of big history can be considered as a series of developments in systems that manage ever-greater levels of energy flow, or thermodynamic disequilibrium. Recent theory suggests that step-wise changes in the work accomplished by a system can be explained using steady-state non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Major transitions in big history can therefore be rigorously defined as transitions between non-equilibrium thermodynamic steady-states (or NESSTs). The time between NESSTs represents a historical period, while larger categories of time can be identified by empirically discovering breaks in the rate of change in processes underlying macrohistorical trends among qualities of NESSTs. Two levels of periodization can be identified through this procedure. First, there are two major eons: cosmological and terrestrial, which exhibit qualitatively different kinds of historical scaling laws with respect to NESST duration and the gaps between NESSTs: the first eon decelerating, the second accelerating. Accelerating rates of historical change are achieved during the Terrestrial Eon by the invention of information inheritance processes. Second, eras can also be defined within Earth history by differences in the scaling of energy flow improvement per NESST. This is because each era is based on a different kind of energy source: the material era depends on nuclear fusion, the biological era on metabolism, the cultural era on tools, and the technological era on machines. Periodizing big history allows historians to uncover the mechanisms which trigger the innovations and novel organisations that spur thermodynamic transitions, as well as the mechanisms which keep historical processes under control.     

非均衡市场下房地产寡头产量竞争研究

在非均衡市场下建立房地产寡头产量竞争动态博弈模型,并分别用理论和数值模拟的方法对其演化加以分析。研究表明,在区域市场非均衡条件下,房地产寡头可以通过重复博弈达成产量竞争均衡;在房地产开发生产技术、管理水平的特定阶段和稳定的税赋政策下,市场供需的非均衡状态和地价房价比决定区域房地产寡头产量博弈的均衡解、均衡稳定性和均衡演化路径,从而决定房地产供给市场的类型。政府宜采取地价房价比控制、市场供需结构调节和税收调整同步的方式调控房地产市场,政策效果相得益彰。     

非均衡理论下的住宅市场行为人决策方式研究

随着我国住宅产业市场化程度的提高,我国住宅市场呈现出市场和计划的二元经济模式.利于经济增长的市场模式和促进社会和谐的计划模式造成了各级政府在引导住宅产业发展中的抉择困难.本文试图通过考察住宅市场各个行为人在受到就业前景、房价预期、政府干预等不同约束条件下的行为反应,进而分析这些行为变动对于住宅市场的供求和价格可能存在的影响,从而得到住宅市场约束条件对市场供求和价格影响的方向和程度,以便于行为人各方的提高市场变动预见能力.