Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.     

以旅游消费驱动区域旅游竞合--以长江三角洲构建无障碍旅游区为例

以长江三角洲构建中国首个无障碍旅游区为例，提出旅游消费再生性、强关联性、跨区域性等特性是促成旅游竞合的天然机理，论述了作为市场力量的旅游消费是催生区域旅游竞合机制，促成旅游企业竞合的重要推动力，最后提出构建旅游消费驱动下的长三角区域旅游竞合的对策。     

完善欠发达地区在区域不平衡发展中的促动机制

区域不平衡发展是一个普遍的规律,欠发达地区应根据不平衡发展理论,吸取经验教训,建立科学的不平衡发展促动机制。     

关于浙北地区城乡供水一体化问题的研究——以H县为例

对浙北地区县域范围内城乡供水现状进行了分析，指出：要实现自来水供应一体化，面临着行政管理体制和水务运作体制方面的问题，并对解决这两方面的问题提出了对策。     

长三角区域行政合作构想

目前,长三角区域行政合作的发展陷入一系列困境,但是泛珠三角区域行政合作却取得很大成功。借鉴其成功的经验与启示,本文提出坚持共享区域合作成果,制定区域合作规范,建立区域合作机制,成立区域合作机构,重新规划区域行政布局等构想来促进长三角区域行政合作。     

建设长春国际陆港区的探讨

在国务院《东北振兴规划》和国家海关总署新的报关模式背景下,文章提出了建设长春国际陆港区的设想,并进行了必要性和可行性的分析。在对长春国际陆港区的概念设计的基础上,提出了建设长春国际陆港区的基本依据,进而提出了以长春铁路货运口岸的改造升级和龙嘉国际机场完善功能为核心,建设长春内陆港,再构筑内陆港特色经济区的设想。最后对建设长春国际陆港区存在的问题进行了思考。     

对小地区失业统计差额比的推定

本文对韩国国内行政区域如市郡区等小地区的失业统计共同差额比进行推定的方法有联合推定量,Woolf推定量和Mantel-Haenszel推定量等。对这个推定量的可信度是通过偏差和平均平方误差的概念来进行比较的。从对京畿地区经济活动人口调查情况看,这个地区内的24个市郡单位行政自治地区的男、女失业率差额比的偏差及平均平方误差是通过本次研究提出的推定程序来推定的。这些推定数的稳定性和效率性可以通过相对偏差和相对平均误差平方根来评价。Woolf推定量或Mantel-Haenszel推定量比联合推定量更为稳定,从其效率性来看三者很相似。     

发挥本地优势与特色产业促进县域经济发展

县域经济具有地域特色,发展县域经济要注重发挥比较优势,突出特色产业,避免一些观念误区,注意选择特色、保障特色、发展特色,遵循特色产业发展规划,促进县域经济可持续发展.     

浅论我国农村环境的法律体系建设

本文分析了我国农村环境法律体系在立法、执法等方面存在的问题,据此提出了健全和完善农村环保法制的一些设想。