基于谱分析的连续加工过程检验批量的确定

在连续加工过程中 ,合理地确定检验批量 ,不仅可以反映加工过程的稳定性 ,而且也是确定抽样检验方案及检验频次的基础。本文主要利用时间序列的谱分析方法对连续加工过程的质量检测数据进行周期划分 ,从而确定抽样检验的批量 ,并根据周期分析结果 ,指出了导致加工质量产生波动的一些原因。     

The financial cycles in four East Asian economies

This paper characterizes proxy measures of financial cycles using available data on four East Asian economies, viz., Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Spectral analysis is adopted to characterize the financial cycles and these cycles are compared with the business cycles of the four East Asian economies. The empirical findings indicated that with the exception of the equity price growth in Hong Kong, the period of the proxy measures for financial cycles is slightly longer than the period of the business cycle. More to the point, there is no evidence to show that the period of the proxy measures for financial cycles in these economies are operating at low frequencies similar to the period of the cycles of between 8 to 32 years observed for advanced economies such as the US, UK and Germany. Taking one step further, the paper finds that the financial cycles of these four economies are better captured by a band-pass filter estimated using the periods obtained in the paper as opposed to using long period cycles of between 8 to 32 years. These findings imply that one needs to be careful in making an a priori assumption on the frequency range the financial cycle is believed to operate.     

基于谱分解的纽约商品交易所黄金现货价格周期研究

本文通过对剔除季节因素和长期因素的纽约商品交易所黄金现货价格数据进行谱分解,发现该黄金现货价格存在90个月和150个月两个周期。并以此为依据对黄金现货价格趋势进行了预测,为优化我国外汇储备配置,防范汇率波动风险提供政策建议。     

中小企业不同成长阶段的CRM应用模式研究

客户关系时代的到来,为中小企业的经营和发展提供了新机遇,也使企业面临着挑战。本文主要从中小企业成长阶段入手,分析不同成长时期中小企业的CRM应用需求,并在此基础上系统地分析了处在不同成长阶段中小企业CRM应用模式的选择。