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1.
In this paper, I assess the evidence for a structural break in labor productivity growth in the years before the Great Recession with the use of out-of-sample forecasting exercises for the years 2010 to 2019 and the recently developed Beveridge–Nelson filter. Models based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter with no structural breaks outperform those allowing for a structural break, and there is statistically significant evidence that they outperform the random walk, though all models were too optimistic about labor productivity growth. Recently developed statistical tests do point to the presence of a structural break before the Great Recession, but uncertainty about the data-generating process for labor productivity growth or the timing and magnitude of the break may be too great to be helpful in forecast preparation. 相似文献
2.
This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series. 相似文献
3.
Nozer D. Singpurwalla 《Revue internationale de statistique》2002,70(1):53-65
Making quantified statements about the uncertainty associated with the lifelength of an item is one of the most fundamental tasks of reliability assessment. Most practitioners routinely do this using one of the several available statistical techniques. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first is to give the user an overview of the key tenets of two of the most commonly used parametric approaches. The second is to point out that these commonly used approaches involve strategies that are either ad hoc, or are in violation of some of the underlying tenets. A method that is devoid of logical flaws can be proposed, but this method is difficult to implement. The user must therefore resign to using that technique against which the fewest objections can be hurled. 相似文献
4.
A dynamic approach to the analysis of strategic alliances 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The increasing trend in strategic alliance formation between major firms around the world, has prompted researchers from various disciplines to look at this phenomenon in great detail. In this paper, we review alternate approaches in the literature in this area. We then propose a non-linear dynamic approach to study the formation of competitive strategic alliances and contrast it with the traditional game-theoretic approach. The pros and cons of these two approaches are discussed with reference to a competitive alliance scenario. Dynamic models have significant managerial implications as they enable us to investigate ‘if-then’ type scenarios and project the impact of different strategies. 相似文献
5.
“利益平衡说”被认为是知识产权法之基本原则或基本精神,旨在平衡权利人个人利益与社会公共利益之冲突,并以此解释知识产权法的制度构成。依自然法理论,知识产权之正当性因其自然获得性,相关权利与限制是确定权利的正当边界,维护以个人权利为基础之社会契约。功利主义理论则认为知识产权保护是实现社会效用之必要工具,经由排他性权利及其限制来达至社会效用最大化。无论限制或保护权利均有可能产生对权利或社会效用的正面或负面作用。由此,利益平衡的二元价值目标论值得商榷。知识产权法的根本问题是以个人权利为导向还是以社会效用为终极价值之选择问题。 相似文献
6.
Manfen W. Chen Rohan Christie-David William T. Moore 《Journal of Regulatory Economics》2007,31(3):289-312
We hypothesize that the firm’s regulatory environment influences the sensitivity of its equity value to information. Using
intraday stock price data of utilities operating in differing regulatory environments we test for systematic differences between
the responsiveness of stock prices of utility firms operating in deregulated and regulated environments to a common information
set. Our findings reveal sharp differences in responses, with those of utilities operating in deregulated environments the
strongest, and the responses of utilities in highly regulated environments the weakest. While the evidence supports our hypothesis,
in a broader sense, the evidence suggests that deregulation aids in the process of price discovery. We also find evidence
that suggests that deregulation, per se, does not lead to higher stock price volatility.
相似文献
7.
In this paper we introduce a new econometricapproach to analyzing recreational site choicedata, the Dirichlet multinomial model. Thismodel, which nests the standard conditionalmultinomial logit model, can accommodateover-dispersed data and may provide moreefficient estimators of coefficients andconsequent welfare measures than the standardconditional logit model, which is so widelyused in the Random Utility Model approach torecreation demand. We illustrate thisDirichlet approach using a data set of rockclimbers in Scotland, and study the impacts onper-trip consumers surplus of alternativemanagement strategies for popular rock climbingsites. Results show that the Dirichletmultinomial approach produces coefficient andwelfare estimates having smaller samplingvariability in this case. We also compareclassical welfare measures with their posteriorequivalents, which allow for welfare changes tobe dis-aggregated. 相似文献
8.
Summary. All agents have the same ordinal ranking over all objects, receiving no object (opting out) may be preferable to some objects,
agents differ on which objects are worse than opting out, and the latter information is private. The Probabilistic Serial
assignment, improves upon (in the Pareto sense) the Random Priority assignment, that randomly orders the agents and offers
them successively the most valuable remaining object. We characterize Probabilistic Serial by efficiency in an ordinal sense,
and envy-freeness. We characterize it also by ordinal efficiency, strategyproofness and equal treatment of equals.
Received: October 5, 1999; revised version: December 20, 2000 相似文献
9.
Nigar Hashimzade 《Economic Theory》2003,21(4):907-912
Summary. In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the
form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular
state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short
of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic
limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.
Received June 7, 2001; revised version: January 7, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" I would like to thank Mukul Majumdar and Thomas DiCiccio for helpful discussion and an anonymous referee for valuable
comments and suggestions. 相似文献
10.