Best classification algorithms in peer-to-peer lending

A proper credit scoring technique is vital to the long-term success of all kinds of financial institutions, including peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. The main contribution of our paper is the robust ranking of 10 different classification techniques based on a real-world P2P lending data set. Our data set comes from the Lending Club covering the 2009–2013 period, which contains 212,252 records and 23 different variables. Unlike other researchers, we use a data sample which contains the final loan resolution for all loans. We built our research using a 5-fold cross-validation method and 6 different classification performance measurements. Our results show that logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and linear discriminant analysis are the three best algorithms based on the Lending Club data. Conversely, we identify k-nearest neighbors and classification and regression tree as the two worst classification methods.     

BUILDING CARS TO CUSTOMER ORDER — WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR INBOUND LOGISTICS OPERATIONS?

The automotive industry is undergoing a strategic transition. Cost pressure from rising stock levels in the market and increasing incentives needed to sell these vehicles are forcing vehicle manufacturers to rethink their prevalent “stock‐push” approach, building vehicles against a forecast and selling from stock, in favor of a stock‐less “build‐to‐order” order fulfillment strategy. More responsive order fulfillment at the vehicle manufacturer level however will not only require flexible and responsive component supply, but will also have wide ramifications for the logistics operations. Based on three case studies of major inbound logistics operations, this exploratory study assesses their ability to support such a build‐to‐order approach, as well as the potential implications of such transition. The paper concludes with a set of general strategies for how these implications could be mitigated.     

PLANNING MULTIPLE LOCATION INVENTORIES

Supplying customer demand from comparable alternate inventory locations when an item is out of stock at its primary stocking point creates a virtual inventory for that item. The expectation is that if more inventories can be drawn upon, the inventory for an item would be lower, the fill rate would be higher, or both. While generally true that safety stocks will be lower, regular stocks, on the other hand, may rise with such cross filling of demand. In this study, a methodology is developed that balances the cross filling effects on both regular and safety stocks for determining whether an inventoried item should be cross‐filled. An example and guidelines are given to show how the methodology can be simplified and applied in practice.     

融资优序与行业管制——兼析中国上市公司“异常融资优序”现象

企业融资先通过内部资金进行,然后再通过银行借款或发行低风险的债券,最后才采用股票,这种融资的“先后顺序”是企业出于降低融资成本和防止剩余利润被分享所做出的理性选择,这就是融资优序理论。本文认为,寡头竞争所形成的行业进入壁垒为优序融资的实现提供了必须的市场环境,其资金使用方式能够优化资源配置,提高资金的使用效率。融资优序理论在发达市场经济国家得到了实践的验证,但在我国上市公司中却存在“异常融资优序”(Abnormal pccking Order)现象,即外部资金优于内部资金,外部资金中股权融资优于债权融资。其原因在于,中国市场经济不太完善,缺乏通过寡头竞争自发形成的行业进入壁垒。本文认为只有采取行业管制手段,设置一定的行业进入壁垒,才能实现优序融资,从而达到优化资源配置的目的。     

基于循环经济的环境财务分析指标体系构建

目前我国的经济增长与自然环境之间的矛盾十分突出,需要大力发展循环经济,而建立环境财务分析指标体系,有助于推动企业循环经济的发展。本文介绍了循环经济的基本理论,简要回顾了国内外关于循环经济的理论研究成果。在此基础上,分析了循环经济对传统财务分析指标的影响,主要体现在主体多元化、目标多元化和指标多样化上。并根据3R原则设计了若干环境财务分析指标,指出了这些指标在沃尔评分法中的应用。     

论缓停建工程中优先权的冲突与顺位确定

由于缓停建工程所涉及的法律权利的复合性与多重性,债权人在实现自己的债权时势必会与他人的民事权利产生冲突,须确立一定的规则来协调各种权利冲突,使处于优位的特定债权人的利益得到保障。在确立解决优先权之间冲突原则的基础上,尚须对各项权利安排合理的顺位,以为法院处理此类问题提供一条切实可行的思路。     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

汽车市场订单管理流程实施

论文探讨了汽车厂商订单管理流程的具体实施,分析了订单管理对区域市场经营模式和经销商能力提升的促进。随后,论文详细研究了订单管理流程中最为重要的年采购目标管理流程、月采购计划流程和周采购计划流程。     

参与、不确定性与投资秩序的生成和演化——解读投资者动机和预期的另一个视角

不同于现有主流理论把投资者的动机和预期理解为投资者实现其效用最大化的计算过程 ,本文认为投资者的动机和预期表明投资者对于投资决策的一种参与 ,并在此基础上提出一个解释框架。这一解释框架把投资者动机和预期所包含的对于投资决策的参与态度及感受定义为参与指数 ,不同的参与指数形成不同的投资者群体 ,而不同投资者群体的互动 ,决定着对投资决策最终发生实际作用的投资秩序的生成与演化 ,不确定性正是刻划了投资秩序生成与演变的主观性和非设计性。     

国民经济优先发展行业排序方法

为优化经济发展途径 ,筛选出经济中的优势行业给予重点支持 ,是宏观经济学的重要任务。本文首先应用统计学中的主成分分析法 ,针对湖北省情况 ,对国民经济 4 0个 1级行业进行排序 ,取得符合实际的结果 ,筛选出消费优势部门及生产优势部门。