Hedging house price risk with futures contracts after the bubble burst

This paper extends the existing literature on managing house price risk. While previous work finds that a hedger would have reduced a large amount of variance in housing returns in Las Vegas, Nevada using Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures contracts, we show that neither static nor dynamic strategies would have maintained an effective hedge during the significant decline in housing prices. The inability to hedge house price risk using CME futures contracts ultimately calls into question the long-term viability of housing futures.     

Economic and financial themes in Australian aged care

This contribution reflects the results of work for a review of aged care in Australia. Initial material covers the policy arrangements in place prior to the beginning of the Review in September 2002. The main feature of the contribution is a survey of economic and financial performance of aged care entities not hitherto attempted. Most attention is directed to labour costs in relation to total costs and earnings before interest and taxes. Cross-section analyses are based on institutional differences between providers of services with some operating as “for profit” entities but most are not reflecting their religious, community-based and charitable origins. Locational differences are also examined. The results show a very great disparity in experiences so that notions of the average experience across providers of services cannot be upheld. Differences between the top 10 percent of entities offering services and the bottom quartile are striking. The implications for development of new strategic approaches to policies are clear.     

广西中小企业融资难问题研究

中小企业融资难是一个长期存在的世界性难题.近两年来,受到外需缩减、劳动力成本上升、从紧的货币政策等国内外不利因素影响,广西中小企业资金紧张、融资难问题突出.究其原因.抵押担保难是目前中小企业融资难的症结所在.当前应着重加快完善信用担保体系,搭建政银企信息交流及沟通平台,引导金融机构转变经营策略、加大信贷产品创新力度,引导中小企业强化银企及企企合作关系,有效发展"关系型贷款".     

Foreclosure externalities: New evidence

Policy makers have used externalities to justify government intervention in the foreclosure process. Using a new dataset that covers 15 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. and a novel identification strategy, this paper provides new evidence on the size and source of these externalities. Our results show that a property in distress affects the value of neighboring properties from the time when the borrower becomes seriously delinquent on the mortgage until well after the bank sells the property to a new owner. Properties with seriously delinquent loans within 0.1 miles are found to decrease transaction prices of non-distressed properties by approximately one percent on average. The spillovers are found to dissipate rapidly with distance and completely disappear one year after the bank sells the property to a new homeowner. Importantly, we find that the size of the externality is sensitive to the condition of foreclosed properties, as bank-owned properties in poor condition lower nearby transaction prices by 2.6% on average while those in good condition marginally raise prices. We argue that the measured price spillovers are physical externalities caused by a lack of property maintenance and not pecuniary externalities that reflect local supply or demand shocks.     

住房增加幸福：是投资属性还是居住属性？

本文利用中国家庭金融调查2011年的调查数据就城镇居民自有住房与个体主观幸福感的关系进行了实证研究。我们发现,房屋的资产属性(房屋产权、预期房屋价格变化和实际房屋价格变化趋势)对居民主观幸福的影响在10%的显著性水平下不显著,住房的财富效应未被发现。但是,我们的实证结果显示房屋的居住属性(房屋房间数目、房屋人均使用面积和房屋已使用时间等)均对居民主观幸福感有显著的正向影响。但是,对拥有多套房屋的家庭来说,第二套及以上房屋拥有对于他们的主观幸福感的提升既非源于房屋居住属性,也非资产属性。最后,对同为本地区的户籍居民且租房的家庭而言,是否拥有自有产权房屋对其幸福感的影响并不显著。     

Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections

Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the county-level supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of 2008, which followed an unprecedented swing from very generous mortgage underwriting standards to a severe contraction of mortgage credit. Voters responded to the credit crunch by shifting their support away from the Republican Presidential candidate in 2008. That shift was large and particularly pronounced in states that typically vote Republican, and in swing states. Without it McCain would have received half the votes needed in nine crucial swing states to reverse the outcome of the election. We extend our analysis to the Presidential elections from 1996 to 2012 and find that voters only react to contractions, not expansions, of credit, and reactions are similar for Democratic and Republican incumbent parties.     

Intra-metropolitan shifts in labor demand and the adjustment of local markets

I offer new evidence on the adjustment of local labor markets to geographic shifts in labor demand within US metropolitan areas using a unique data set in which metropolitan subregions are geographically matched across the 1970–1980 and 1980–1990 decades. The evidence uncovered paints the following picture. Workers, especially those with less education, make incomplete adjustments within metropolitan areas in response to intra-metropolitan demand shifts. Although blacks may not make especially limited adjustments, they have disproportionately suffered deleterious effects from job movements because the demand shifts have tended to be away from their places of residence.     

Forecasting residential burglary

Following the work of Dhiri et al. [Modelling and predicting property crime trends. Home Office Research Study 198 (1999). London: HMSO] at the Home Office predicting recorded burglary and theft for England and Wales to the year 2001, econometric and time series models were constructed for predicting recorded residential burglary to the same date. A comparison between the Home Office econometric predictions and the less alarming econometric predictions made in this paper identified the differences as stemming from the particular set of variables used in the models. However, the Home Office and one of our econometric models adopted an error correction form which appeared to be the main reason why these models predicted increases in burglary. To identify the role of error correction in these models, time series models were built for the purpose of comparison, all of which predicted substantially lower numbers of residential burglaries. The years 1998–2001 appeared to offer an opportunity to test the utility of error correction models in the analysis of criminal behaviour. Subsequent to the forecasting exercise carried out in 1999, recorded outcomes have materialised, which point to the superiority of time series models compared to error correction models for the short-run forecasting of property crime. This result calls into question the concept of a long-run equilibrium relationship for crime.     

中国城镇住宅碳排放强度分析和用能政策反思

基于最新可利用的统计数据,对中国城镇住宅使用过程中分品种能源消耗引起的碳排放等指标进行估算,并对城镇住宅碳排放量、碳排放强度的变化指数模型进行分解。结果表明：研究期内城镇住宅能耗结构趋于“清洁化”,住宅直接CO2排放比例趋于下降;住宅能源强度、人均住房面积、家庭总户数、能源碳密度等是影响住宅碳排放和排放强度变化的主要社会经济和能源驱动因子。文章最后提出住宅用能的几点政策启示。     

Regulatory Capital Arbitrage and the Potential Competitive Impact of Basel II in the Market for Residential Mortgages

U.S. banking regulators have proposed a bifurcated system of capital regulation where the largest, internationally active banking organizations would be subject to significantly more risk sensitive regulatory capital requirements than are currently in place, while most others would remain subject to the current rules. The proposed new capital regime has the potential to affect the competitive landscape among banking institutions, particularly in the area of residential mortgage lending. We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed, bifurcated regulatory capital system on competition in the residential mortgage market from the perspective of the theory of regulatory capital arbitrage. We then apply the theory and available evidence to perform some benchmark calculations that suggest a significant, potential shift of market share and income to the largest banking institutions in the mortgage market.