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《Futures》2014
The PASHMINA (paradigm shifts modeling and innovative approaches) project grew out of the need to improve our understanding of the paradigm shift in the energy-transport-landuse nexus and, more broadly, in world development. In envisioning the world at 2050, we envisaged future growth in four possible directions: growth without limits, growth within limits, stagnation, and New Welfare. The scenario considered as preferable reflects a transition toward a New Welfare, characterized by a high level of cooperation, heightened concern for the environment and for social welfare, and an increased share of immaterial consumption. This scenario is based on the recognition that the development of new technologies – although relevant – turns out to be insufficient to resolve the issue of resource scarcity alone. Important behavioral changes are also needed. In the New Welfare scenario, GDP as a measure of growth becomes obsolete and needs to be replaced with ways of measuring progress that are more reflective of natural, human, and social capital. The New Welfare scenario also charts a pathway toward a low-carbon future, with an overall reduction in energy consumption, density, and intensity, and a greatly reduced reliance on fossil fuels. A new, smart electric grid facilitates active demand management and decentralized production of power. Natural gas or even small nuclear plants tackle problems associated with the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Among other likely shifts under this scenario is a re-conceptualization of production, from short-lived to longer-lasting goods and from private to open source knowledge products and services; growth in recycling and zero-waste processes; and a shift from profit-driven business to entrepreneurship that seeks to satisfy social needs and build local capital. The world undergoes a transition from unequal growth to prosperity in a multi-polar, globally interdependent world. New global democracy networks and institutions are created, and constitutions extend beyond the protection of human rights to the recognition of “nature rights.” Citizens’ income is tied to the social welfare-oriented duties and participatory governance. This scenario further leaves room to new forms of self-regulation of common resources. Actions necessary for the shift to the New Welfare paradigm include the adoption of new metrics for measuring progress, measures to increase public acceptance of technological and societal change, the creation of new global and local institutions devoted to sustainable management of shared environmental resources, sustainable production and consumption patterns, and a low-carbon energy and transport systems. 相似文献
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资本深化带来了经济危机吗 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文对美、日两国的资本深化过程和经济危机过程的考察结果表明两者之间有紧密的相关关系。按照索洛的稳态增长条件理论,资本深化并不必然带来经济危机。但资本—劳动比不断增长的现实最终会使资本深化远离稳态水平,越来越大的资产价格泡沫和过高的人均资本量只有通过经济危机的爆发来消除和降低。研究结果表明,扩大社会就业和加大民生工程支出等是防止人均资本量过高即资本深化引致经济危机爆发的有效措施。 相似文献
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We estimate quarterly cointegrating vector autoregressive models for the Eurozone and the USA based on long-run restrictions
derived from a dynamic open economy model. Three long-run relations between the Eurozone and the USA emerge: relative purchasing
power parity, international interest parity and a stationary output gap between the two economies. Generalized impulse response
functions show differences in the dynamic adjustment of the two economies. Due to the I(1)-characteristic of both output series
and the stability conditions imposed by the long-run equilibrium relationships, shocks to the model produce level effects
only, while growth rates converge to their long-run averages.
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Thomas UrlEmail: |
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本文运用线性全连续场的谱理论和约化方法,研究了一类捕食行为的功能性反应模型的约化方程和定态分歧,得到了方程在不同情况下的分歧解. 相似文献
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研究目标:破解中国企业“传递贸易”之谜。研究方法:利用2000~2006年中国工企和海关数据,首先统计分析中企进行传递贸易的特征性事实,其次采用面板模型检验传递企业是否存在“生产率和利润率溢价”,最后分别采用Bivariate Probit和Heckman模型分析中国企业进入国际市场的产品选择决策、出口后传递贸易产品生存状况和产品范围动态调整过程。研究发现:作为中国出口中广泛存在的一种重要贸易方式,传递贸易对促进整体出口迅猛增长起到了至关重要作用。研究创新:从核心能力视角阐明了企业通过传递贸易有效解决其在出口产品多元化战略和发挥核心能力优势之间两难选择的作用机理。研究价值:揭示这种新型贸易模式对微观企业国际化成长和宏观政府破解当前出口困局的政策意义。 相似文献
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Meenakshi Rajeev 《Economic Modelling》2012,29(5):1757-1765
The theory of Walrasian equilibrium yields a set of prices at which the aggregate competitive demand for each commodity equals its aggregate competitive supply. However, even at equilibrium prices the theory of competitive equilibrium does not explicitly offer explanation regarding the manner in which trades are actually executed. This paper considers a model where trade takes place in a decentralized fashion and examines in a dynamic game-theoretic framework, the role of social institution of money and markets in facilitating exchange. The steady state Nash equilibrium derived in the paper demonstrates how, depending on the level of transaction costs associated with a market setup (synonymously, trading posts to exchange possible pairs of goods) appropriate monetary trade emerges, which like a hub and spoke network (Starr and Stinchcombe, 1999) makes some markets non-functioning and in equilibrium only the markets having trade through the medium of exchange continue to exist. However, despite the obvious advantages of a market setup in reducing search costs, pure random search for a complementary trading partner (as considered by Ostroy and Starr, 1974; Kiyotaki and Wright , 1989; and others) prevails in many economies, especially, in many developing economies. This paper models this feature of developing economies by introducing differences in transaction costs across agents and shows why sustainable equilibria might exist exhibiting random search for certain commodities even in the presence of established markets. 相似文献
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本文基于投入产出理论,从稳增长和调结构的视角,将产业投资决策表现为产业投资依赖度、产业投资效率两个状态指标,从而使产业投资决策成为一个具备完全时间内容和空间意义的系统决策。通过变结构控制动态投入产出模型识别各产业对投资的依赖度,通过DEA(数据包络分析)模型识别各产业当前的投资效率,并通过BCG(波士顿矩阵)模型综合分析产业的外部投资环境依赖度和内部投资效率,进一步判断在投资环境发生变化时如何采取合适的产业投资战略。 相似文献