工资对个人劳动供给的非线性影响：部门市场化程度差异视角

从市场经济体制的建立到经济社会高质量发展，我国不同部门市场化程度有所差异，劳动供给的部门异质性随之体现。基于中国劳动力动态调查数据，结合汉森门槛回归模型和劳动供给模型，依托部门市场化程度的差异性，文章探讨了工资对劳动力个人供给的非线性影响及其部门异质性。主要得出以下研究结论：第一，我国市场部门与公共部门劳动力的个人劳动供给有所差异。第二，工资与个人劳动供给呈现非线性关系并且存在部门异质性。实证分析结果显示，工资对个人劳动供给的影响存在三个"突变点"，工资门槛均使得工资"激励效应"加强并呈现逐步增加的趋势。第三，劳动供给的工资门槛存在性别、城乡和行业异质性。第四，随着年龄增长、人力资本积累，个人劳动时间供给趋于降低，签署书面劳工合同使得市场部门劳动力工作时间显著增加，而政治面貌显著影响公共部门劳动供给。总体来看，无论是市场部门还是公共部门，我国劳动力个人供给曲线均未"向后弯曲"，国民经济高质量发展、改善收入分配格局、提升居民幸福感等议题需持续关注。     

Are China’s regional agricultural productivities converging: How and why?

This article tests the hypotheses of convergence to a single level of total factor productivity (TFP), and a steady state of TFP growth rate in China’s agricultural sector. Based on multilateral TFP estimates we found that China’s agricultural sector has rebounded in recent years from a slower TFP growth in the 2005–2007 period. While convergence test results confirm a “catch-up” effect that provinces with lower TFP levels tend to grow faster than others, estimated rates of β convergence are conditional on how we capture the heterogeneity effect across regions. The rates of β convergence range from 0.016 to 0.039 under different model specifications. Estimates show that higher growth rates of educational attainment, R&D, and intermediate goods density (per unit of labor) can enhance TFP growth. Unfortunately, there is no evidence of an overall σ convergence, indicating that TFP levels are not converging except in the South region. It implies that to catch up with leading provinces, it would require extra efforts for those lagging behind by increasing their region-specific research investment, promoting rural educational attainment, and enhancing embodied technical change.     

略论明代武当山香税的征收与管理

明代的香税以泰山和武当山的数量和影响为最。武当山香税的征收始于明孝宗弘治六年（1493年），是明代最早征收香税之地，由湖广布政司和提督太监委派的官员即均州千户所千户和太和宫提点负责。打着维修庙宇的旗号而征收的香税，在嘉靖以后还用于赈济灾荒，抵宗藩、官兵俸粮之不足等事项，正是明代中后期国家政治腐败、财政危机、加派风行的必然结果。     

谈谈酒店商务楼层的起源与发展

商务楼层作为一种特定的楼层，在世界各地兴起和迅速发展。通过阐述商务楼层的意义、起源与发展，揭示商务楼层与其他楼层的不同之处，目的是促使商务楼层进一步完善发展。     

原甲酸三乙酯生产技术动向

对原甲酸三乙酯的原料来源、成本、生产技术信息、技术开发相关情况作了介绍，有益于该产品的生产技术开发。     

LOGISTICS SALIENCE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

The primary purpose of this paper was to empirically explore some of the reasons that logistics has become more important, or salient, in comparison to other functions within the firm. A survey of 296 managers across multiple industries in the U.S. found logistics becomes more important within the firm when the industry increases in uncertainty, when there is an emphasis on time‐based competition, when there is greater adoption of information technology, and when there is an emphasis on cross‐functional integration.     

Forecasting residential burglary

Following the work of Dhiri et al. [Modelling and predicting property crime trends. Home Office Research Study 198 (1999). London: HMSO] at the Home Office predicting recorded burglary and theft for England and Wales to the year 2001, econometric and time series models were constructed for predicting recorded residential burglary to the same date. A comparison between the Home Office econometric predictions and the less alarming econometric predictions made in this paper identified the differences as stemming from the particular set of variables used in the models. However, the Home Office and one of our econometric models adopted an error correction form which appeared to be the main reason why these models predicted increases in burglary. To identify the role of error correction in these models, time series models were built for the purpose of comparison, all of which predicted substantially lower numbers of residential burglaries. The years 1998–2001 appeared to offer an opportunity to test the utility of error correction models in the analysis of criminal behaviour. Subsequent to the forecasting exercise carried out in 1999, recorded outcomes have materialised, which point to the superiority of time series models compared to error correction models for the short-run forecasting of property crime. This result calls into question the concept of a long-run equilibrium relationship for crime.     

中国当代消费形态下的广告理论述评

中国用几十年走完了西方发达国家一个世纪的经济发展历程，各种理论在中国广告市场得到广泛实践。这些广告理论与消费形态是否契舍，决定了广告理论能否正确地指导实践、引导消费。中国当代消费形态是以消费者为中心，并呈现出许多中国特色，因此，必须进一步完善和发展广告理论以适应新消费形态。     

全球视野下中国保险业的发展趋势

中国保险市场是全球最重要的新兴保险市场之一,在经济全球化背景下,国际保险业发展的新趋势将对中国保险业的发展产生重大而深远的影响,中国保险业在经营理念、发展模式、扩张路径和运营模式等方面将发生深刻的变革。     

普京内政外交新动向探析

在当今世界,俄罗斯在解决国际重大争端,处理全球重大事务等方面具有不可或缺、不可替代的重要地位和作用.因此,研究普京的内政外交新动向意义重大.在内政方面,普京正在全力实施以能源、武器和原材料生产为核心的中长期经济振兴计划,提出了10年内翻番的目标.在对外事务中的布局层次是--独联体是重中之重,欧洲及美国是首要,亚太一些周边大国是关键,东欧、中东、非洲和拉美不可忽视.