The impacts of value chain upgrading on the export of processed food

Upgrading in global value chains (GVCs) is an important path for developing countries to move along to capture higher benefits. Several qualitative studies of GVCs have identified two main upgrading types: economic (product, process, functional, and inter-sectoral) and social upgrading. The upgrading concept is widespread in productive sectors such as processed food, which has become a key export for developing countries. However, they have confronted multiple product standards required by global buyers. This study uses a case study of Thailand’s processed food exports (TPFEs). Although Thailand is a leading exporter of processed food, the country needs to upgrade in many areas related to production to meet global product standards and requirements. If Thailand fails to comply with global product standards, it will lose its export competitiveness. This study uses a gravity model to evaluate the impact of economic and social upgrading (EUP and SUP) on TPFEs. Our results show that upgrading types are significant in TPFEs, particularly for exports to developed countries. Process upgrading has a negative impact on TPFEs because of increased production costs to comply with product standards. However, process upgrading can lead to increased producers’ and exporters’ knowledge about how to comply with international standards. Consequently, process upgrading exhibits a lagged positive effect on TPFEs.     

COVID-19, stock market and sectoral contagion in US: a time-frequency analysis

We assess the conditional relationship in the time-frequency domain between the return on S&P 500 and confirmed cases and deaths by COVID-19 in Hubei, China, countries with record deaths and the world, for the period from January 29 to June 30, 2020. Methodologically, we follow Aguiar-Conraria et al. (2018), by using partial coherencies, phase-difference diagrams, and gains. We also perform a parametric test for Granger-causality in quantiles developed by Troster (2018). We find that short-term cycles of deaths in Italy in the first days of March, and soon afterwards, cycles of deaths in the world are able to lead out-of-phase US stock market. We find that low frequency cycles of the US market index in the first half of April are useful to anticipate in an anti-phasic way the cycles of deaths in the US. We also explore sectoral contagion, based on dissimilarities, Granger causality and partial coherencies between S&P sector indices. Our findings, such as the strategic role of the energy sector, which first reacted to the pandemic, or the evidence about predictability of the Telecom cycles, are useful to tell the history of the pass-through of this recent health crises across the sectors of the US economy.     

Aid for trade and the quality of exports

This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin).     

On measuring the wealth of nations: the US economy, 1964-2001

This paper examines the methodology of Shaikh and Tonak (Measuringthe Wealth of Nations, 1994) underlying their calculation ofestimates of productive labour in the US economy from 1964 to2001. The focus is not on the results but on the methods thatgenerate them. The paper finds that the compromises made byShaikh and Tonak because of data unavailability are unreliable,and that better approximations are possible. On this latterbasis, the Shaikh and Tonak methodology can be used to providethe labour and wage estimates needed for empirical investigationsin the surplus-based tradition.     

What＇s So Special about China＇s Exports？ A Comment

Dani Rodrik argues that China's exports are unusually sophisticated for a country at its income level. He also claims that China's export sophistication reflects the government's successful industrial policy and has been instrumental in the recent acceleration of its economic growth. Although Rodrik's interpretation of China's economic growth is broadly correct, the accuracy of his empirical analysis is questionable. This note identifies several problems regarding the “export sophistication” index used in his empirical work and casts doubt on his analysis.     

战后日本对外贸易发展的动态比较优势分析

二战后日本经济从一片废墟中迅速崛起成功跻身于发达国家行列，其对外贸易在战后的50多年间一直保持着稳定的增长。日本出口商品结构沿着劳动密集型、资本密集型、知识和技术密集型的轨迹发展，逐步升级，顺应了世界经济产业结构调整的步伐，为其对外贸易的持续发展奠定了坚实的基础。日本对外贸易遵循的是动态比较优势原理，其经验对我国当前外贸发展具有重要的借鉴意义。     

美国贸易逆差:增长惯性与可持续性

美国的经常项目逆差特别是贸易逆差“历史悠久”，尤其是近年来高速增长，已引起人们广泛的关注。1990年代来的美国贸易逆差，已很难单从汇率、贸易政策及产品竞争力等单个变量来加以解释。通过运用滞后一年的时间数列回归分析及相关分析，本文得出的结论是：当期美国贸易逆差是前期美国贸易逆差的惯性增长，并且只要美国能够维持强势美元，资本与金融账户的盈余足够冲抵贸易逆差，美国的贸易逆差便具有可持续性。在本文的最后一部分，作者针对近期美国人制造的“人民币升值论”，结合近10年来中美双边贸易现实，说明美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有必然联系，人民币升值不可能改善美国的贸易收支状况。     

美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应研究

基于前瞻性指引溢出效应的相关理论,选取17个代表性新兴市场国家为研究对象,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证分析美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应.结果表明:美联储前瞻性指引在短期内对新兴市场国家金融市场具有一定的冲击,在长期内对新兴市场国家经济增长存在滞后的正向作用.新兴市场国家应采取应对策略,做好风险识别和预警,加强预期管理,增强货币政策协调和合作,有效防范和化解外溢影响.     

论人民币升值对世界证券市场的影响——以美国证券市场为例

我国是一个经济贸易大国,人民币升值将通过多种机制对世界证券市场产生重大影响.当然,由于不同的国家与我国的经贸关系和地缘关系不同,以及市场的开放和发达程度不同,相同的机制对不同国家的证券市场影响是不同的,这需要具体情况具体分析.鉴于人民币升值对世界证券市场的影响,我国应注意防范其中隐藏的风险,并尽可能地从中获取应得的利益.     

Through trade wars,East Asians finally learning to cooperate with each other?

ABSTRACT

In this paper, I examine the Sino-U.S. trade disputes from less-talked about angles: institutional differences, SOEs, hukou control and contemporary Chinese history. Based on these, I provide suggestions for future cooperation and improvement.